Somerset Squall

Francisco is on the way out. The little convection associated with the system is sheared well to the northeast. Extratropical transition is well underway and should be complete soon as Francisco passes south of Japan.

Raymond is looking a lot better this evening. Winds are back up to 50kts. The storm has developed a central dense overcast again. Over the next 48 hours or so, shear is set to remain low, waters warm and the air moist. Therefore, Raymond should regain hurricane status. Raymond has been moving south of west over thw last day or so along a ridge to the north. An approaching trough from the west should recurve Raymond northeastwards in a few days time. The timing of this turn is uncertain. The trough will oncrease shear over Raymond, causing weakening at days 4 and 5.

Lekima still a category 5.

Winds have decreased to 45kts. Raymond's track so far, an unusual one to say the least!

Cool waters and dry air are weakening Francisco this evening. The system is barely clinging on to typhoon status, with winds now at 65kts. Dry air is infiltrating the core of Francisco, and there are large dry slots in the ever weakening convective canopy. Francisco should continue to weaken as it turns northeast soon, and shear rises.

Raymond is in trouble this evening. Shear has completely stripped the LLCC of convection, and it is now entirely exposed west of the shrinking convection. Winds have continued to fall, and are at 50kts according to NHC's 4pm update, though they could be lower than that now. Raymond has finally started moving west. Shear is expected to ease, and as Raymond moves over warmer water, it could recover.

Mmm, I'm not sure about the last part, I don't think they will get near enough to each other whilst tropical. Whilst extratropical maybe. Then again, I may be proved wrong!

Not likely. The two systems are, and will remain, too far away from each other for that to happen, at least while they are tropical. Lekima remains a 140kt category 5 super typhoon this morning. There are no signs, at least yet, of an eyewall replacement cycle.

Raymond has weakened significantly through the day. The hurricane has barely moved at all, and this has not worked out favourably for Raymond. The convective pattern has become much less organised, probably due to the upwelling of colder waters as Raymond remains stationary and also the fact that shear has risen over Raymond. The eye has all but dissapeared. Winds are down to 65kts according to a recon plane that has been investigating Raymond this evening. Raymond is expected to finally move westwards tomorrow. This will put Raymond back over warmer water as it moves away from the churned up colder water, but as shear is expected to remain at moderate levels, significant re-intensification is not expected. NHC forecast Raymond to drop just below hurricane strength then maintain that intensity over the next several days as it drifts westward along the south side of a newly built ridge.

Lorenzo has strengthened to 45kts. Earlier, a central dense overcast (CDO) feature formed. Since then, shear has increased, displacing this CDO slightly east of the centre of circulation. Lorenzo has probably peaked as shear looks set to rise further tomorrow.

Lekima has become a category 5 on the SS scale, the third of the West Pacific season. Winds are at 140kts. Super Typhoon Lekima has an perfectly defined eye embedded in a solid central dense overcast. Eyewall replacement cycles will largely govern the intensity of Lekima over the next 48hrs before it reaches cooler waters and increasing shear, which will induce weakening.

Francisco has weakened a little more, and is now a 75kts cat 1 according to JTWC. Although the convection remains shallow around the eye, the eye has cleared out and become better defined since I last posted. Shear is still low and could remain so through the next 24 hours. This means that any further weakening will be slow during this time. As Francisco nears Japan, even colder waters and higher shear will induce faster weakening then extratropical transition. Nevertheless, Francisco remains a significant threat to Japan, especially as it is set to hit a similar area to Typhoon Wipha last week.

Indeed Sainsbo, what an amazing October this has been. Up until now, storms have struggled in the West Pacific, but it's like a switch has flicked and now we are getting one intense storm after the other. As you say, Lekima is now a 105kt cat 3 and will likely become the world's fourth cat 5 (and West Pacific's third cat 5) very soon. That eye looks perfectly defined, and that central dense overcast looks solid. Interesting to note Lekima is smaller than Wipha and Francisco were too.

Winds have increased to 110kts according to NHC's latest update. There has indeed been a fair few landfalls or near grazes on Mexico this season Vorticity, more than normal. Though Raymond looks more likely than not to remain offshore, that northern band has already been providing very heavy rains, and as Raymond remains practically stationary over the next day or so, the rain will likely continue unfortunately.

Despite the shear, 13L has become Tropical Storm Lorenzo, with winds of 35kts. The LLCC remains on the western edge of the convection due to moderate shear. This shear will prevent significant intensification, but NHC do forecast a peak of 45kts. In 36hrs time, shear is set to rise significantly, and Lorenzo will also be heading into colder waters. These two factors will swiftly bring about weakening.

Lekima has been upgraded to a typhoon with winds of 65kts. JTWC forecast a peak of 115kts (cat 4).

Interesting bit of pointless trivia for the name Raymond for a hurricane: Each time the name Raymond has been used it has become a major hurricane, and each time it has also been the strongest storm of the season. Latest image of Raymond, the outer bands are drenching parts of Mexico:

Francisco has weakened through the day. Winds are down to 90kts, making the typhoon a cat 2 on the SS scale. Shear is still relatively low, so it might be the fact that Francisco is traversing waters cooled by Typhoon Wipha a week ago, as Francisco is heading almost exactly along Wipha's track. Convection is becoming increasingly shallow, indicative of cooler water. The new eye is still visible, but it is cloud filled. Shear rises to the north, and sea temps decline further, so Francisco should continue to weaken before it swings northeast and clips eastern Japan.

It looks like the Atlantic has briefly awoken from it's slumber. But don't get too excited, because it looks like we may be in for a weak tropical storm at best with this system. 13L is located in the open waters of the central Atlantic, well east of Bermuda. Convection blossomed over the LLCC this afternoon, but already westerly shear is partially exposing the LLCC to the west of the convection. 13L could become a tropical storm over the next day or so whilst waters remain warm enough, but shear will cap any significant intensification. After a couple days, shear will rise further and waters cool along the east-northeast track, which will put an abrupt end to 13L's brief life.I still can't believe there have only been two hurricanes in the Atlantic, and they were only cat 1's!

Lekima is not quite a typhoon, but it will be one very soon. The central dense overcast is solid, and there are hints of an eye trying to emerge. Winds are up to 55kts currently. Conditions are ripe for further strengthening as the storm heads northwestwards.

Raymond has become the season's first major hurricane with winds of 105kts, making it a cat 3 on the SS scale. Raymond could strengthen a little more as it approaches the coast at a slow crawl. Raymond's intensification rate has been impressive- minimal tropical storm to major hurricane in 24 hours!

Raymond has bombed overnight, and has become a category 2 hurricane with winds of 95kts, making it the strongest storm of the season. An eye has cleared out and is beoming very well defined, embedded in a circular central dense overcast. Raymond looks poised to continue to strengthen rapidly, and I think the hurricane could become a category 4 major hurricane this afternoon, if it isn't nearing that strength already. Looks like Raymond will finally end the major hurricane drought that spans both the Atlantic and East Pacific this year!

Winds have dropped to 115kts. However, Francisco has nearly completed the eyewall replacement cycle as the new eye is clearing out. The central dense overcast is still circular, indicating that the modest increase in shear is not really negatively affecting Francisco right now. I wouldn't rule out some brief re-intensification now before Francisco runs into the higher shear further north, which was responsible for killing Tropical Depression 27W. Francisco will not reach the same fate however, and although will weaken, is still a significant threat to Japan.

28W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lekima by JMA, with winds of 35kts. JTWC still have Lekima as a 30kt depression! However, as Vorticity says, Lekima is likely to be rapidly intensifying right now. There is plenty of convection over the LLCC, with tightly wrapped spiral banding flanking it. This is a mature tropical storm already, and I feel the forecasting agencies are going to be playing catch up with this one. In reality, I feel Lekima will be a typhoon by tomorrow or very close to it. The satellite signature is very impressive and screams out that a monster is in the making.

27W has degenerated into a remnant low. The LLCC, if one still exists, is highly stretched. The remnants are headed for even higher shear, so regneration is not expected.