Somerset Squall

Amara has indeed weakened as it curves southeastwards. The eye is no longer visible on satellite imagery, and the central dense overcast has become irregular, distorted by shear. Winds have fallen to 110kts, cat 3 on the SS scale. Further weakening can be expected.

Bruce is on the cusp of becoming a cat 5 on the SS scale and is expected to over the next 24hrs. Winds are at 135kts according to JTWC. If Bruce d0es become a cat 5, it'll be the first in the south indian 0cean since Edzani in 2010, and the 6th worldwide this year

Intense Amara has strengthened still further overnight, and winds have reached a whopping 130kts, high end cat 4 on the SS scale. Westerly shear is increasing, so Amara is expected to weaken later today.

Amara's eye is just passing to the east of Rodrigues island. However, the island is still being battered by damaging winds and torrential rains from dangerous Amara.

Amara has managed to strengthen once more to 115kts, cat 4 on SS scale. The central dense overcast feature has deepened and the eye has remained well defined.

MeteoFrance has now upgraded Bruce to a "Very Intense Tropical Cyclone", the highest on their scale. They estimate the pressure to be 915mb! What a beast!

Bruce has continued to intensify, and is now a 125kt cat 4 on the SS scale. The eye has cleared out this afternoon and has become more defined. Bruce could intensify a little more.

Bruce's intensity has continued to rocket up, and winds are now at 110kts, high end cat 3 on the SS scale, according to JTWC. Bruce has a large eye, which is slightly cloud filled, surrounded by a solid central dense overcast and strong banding. Bruce is expected to attain cat 4 status on the SS scale before a weakening trend sets in after 12 hours.

Amara peaked at 115kts (SS scale cat 4) between JTWC advisories: The cyclone has since weakened, as the eye has lost definition, although the central dense overcast remains quite solid. Winds are down to 105kts according to JTWC. They explain this weakening is due to an unexpected decrease in outflow, which has caused the cloud top temperatures to warm and the convection to weaken. They no longer forecasted further strengthening, and expect Amara to slowly weaken over the next couple days, with faster weakening after that as shear increases. Amara continues to move fairly slowly southwestwards but is expected to turn south then southeast as a trough weakens the steering ridge to the southeast. This will steer Amara very near or directly over the island of Rodrigues, bringing high winds and rain here, despite Amara being forecasted to be a weaker cyclone at this time. A turn back to the west is then expected as the ridge builds back towards the south of Amara, though the timing and occurence of this turn is still uncertain.

Bruce now has a large eye, and winds have increased to 75kts according to JTWC, and BOM have classified Bruce as a severe tropical cyclone.

Now classified as an "Intense Tropical Cyclone" by MeteoFrance, with an estimated pressure of 944mb. Certainly an impressive first cyclone of the Southwest Indian Ocean season!

Bruce has strengthened fairly quickly today, and currently has winds of 60kts. The cyclone has strong banding features and a central dense overcast, in which a true eye appears to be now taking shape. Conditions appear to favour some further intensification as Bruce heads west-southwestwards. As Bruce turns to the south in a few days time, shear and cooler sea temps will begin to erode the cyclone. JTWC expect a peak of 90kts before this occurs.

Amara has continued to rapidly intensify. Winds are up to 100kts according to JTWC, making Amara a cat 3 on the SS scale. The eye is becoming better defined, embedded in the central dense overcast, which is small but solid. Shear is low, and outflow is excellent, with a channel now venting in both a poleward and equatorward direction. These dual outflow channels, along with Amara's small size, could facilitate further rapid strengthening over the next 24hrs, before the upper level environment begins to deteriorate. JTWC expect a peak of 130kts, which would make Amara the strongest storm in the Southwest Indian Ocean, in their estimates, since Edzani in 2010.

Passing through here with little effect, the rain has gotten heavier but the wind has died right back lol.

A Somerset Squall is about to occur!

Amara has strengthened considerably overnight, with winds now at 80kts according to JTWC. The compact system has developed an eye, which isn't all that well defined yet, but it is definitely a sign of things to come. With low shear and good outflow expected to persist over the next day or two, and Amara's small size, Amara could continue to ramp up quickly.

That's the opposite to me. I would like some crisp sunny days and frosty nights but I do not ever want grey, calm and BORING weather. I would much rather have the rain and wind. Before this unsettled spell the couple weeks of grey but dry weather we had was really doing my head in!

Now named Bruce by BOM.

JTWC have issued their first warning, declaring the system Tropical Cyclone 04S. BOM should upgrade the system soon. As I've mentioned above, 04S should strengthen decently over the next few days. It's interesting to note however, that JTWC plump for 04S to reach an intensity of 70kts by day 4/5, wheras BOM are expecting a 90kt system (which would equate to about 100kts using a 1 min average wind measurement as JTWC does). 04S should move generally west-southwestwards along the northwestern periphery of a ridge to the southeast. In a few days time, an advancing trough should weaken the ridge, allowing 04S to take a more poleward turn.

Amara has continued to strengthen, and JTWC have raised the intensity to 50kts. Marginal ocean heat content may be a factor in limiting intensity gains in the near term, but the upper level conditions are favourable. Warmer waters near La Reunion and Mauritius, which Amara could move over in a few days time, would support further intensification. The steering environment is complex, as two ridges are competing for steering influence, which is causing Amara to move slowly. The ridge to the southeast should win out, allowing Amara to accelerate to the west-southwest soon.

JTWC are about to issue their first advisory on this system. Organisation has improved markedly today, with a contracted and much better defined LLC covered with a small but deep area of convection. There is a hook/comma like appearance to the system, which does imply that it may be quite quick to strengthen. The shear from yesterday has eased, and with the good poleward outflow and warm waters along track, this system could become quite intense.

JTWC have issued their first warning on Amara, indicating winds have reached 35kts. They are forecasting some strengthening as the storm heads west-southwest over the coming few days: Latest image of Amara:

A tropical low is has developed a few hundred miles north of Cocos Island. The low, also known as invest 94S, is moving southwestwards, north of Cocos Island. The system is currently being affected by shear, and is currently quite broad natured, but the shear should ease as the low continues southwestwards, allowing development. BOM expects the system to become a tropical cyclone within the next 24hrs, and JTWC assess this risk as a MEDIUM risk. The cyclone should then move out of the Australian region of responsibility and into MeteoFrance's area of responsibility in the Southwest Indian Ocean in around 48hrs time, whilst continuing to intensify.

Yep, it seems the South Indian Ocean cyclone season is starting, about on time too. This should become the first named storm of the Southwest Indian Ocean 2013-14 season pretty soon I would've thought (Alessia was an Australian region cyclone), banding features are becoming more prominant and there is a healthy amount of convection centrally. EDIT: Now named Amara by MeteoFrance.

I didn't realise there were 3 tropical systems in 2003! You could almost call that a season lol.