Somerset Squall

What a difference 24hrs makes! JTWC have issued the last advisory as all convection associated with Faxai has vanished at an alarming rate, and the remnant low has become extratropical.

Winds have been upped to 75kts by JTWC, they expect a peak of 80kts in 12hrs, followed by weakening and extratropical transition for reasons explained by Vorticity above. An impressive early season West Pacific system!

Faxai is strengthening as it moves north, east of Guam. Winds are up to 55kts. Faxai has developed a central dense overcast, an indicator that shear has lessened. Further strengthening is likely over the next 24hrs, and Faxai will likely become the season's first typhoon strength system if current trends continue.

Kofi peaked at 50kts, and is now beginning to weaken. As Kofi continues to gain latitude, it will become extratropical over cold water northeast of New Zealand.

Indeed, it was named Kofi yesterday. Kofi's winds are currently at 45kts. Kofi continues to move southeastwards, steered by a ridge to the east. The cyclone had some pretty deep convection over the LLCC last night, with good banding features. Although Kofi has retained the banding features today, the central convection has started to weaken. Kofi has probably about peaked, as sea temps will decline further along track and shear values also rise. Extratropical transition is expected to begin in about 24hrs time.

Faxai has been moving erratically over the last 24hrs, completing a loop. The storm strengthened to 50kts earlier, but has since weakened to 45kts due to an increase in shear. This shear is not expected to last, and Faxai should resume strengthening soon as it moves northwards as the ridge to the east gains steering influence.

February very wet, not quite as wet as January but near enough! January: 182.7mm (well above average) February: 172.0mm (well above average) 2014 so far: 354.7mm (well above average)

03W has strengthened and become Tropical Storm Faxai, with winds of 35kts. The storm is still under moderate shear, and the convection is being sheared northwards, leaving the LLCC partially exposed this evening. JTWC still expect strengthening as shear is set to ease, and forecast Faxai to become a minimal typhoon in a few days.

After a 3 week lull, the next tropical cyclone of the South Pacific has formed, just east of Fiji. The precursor to this cyclone has meandered over Fiji over the last couple days, bringing heavy rains here. A ridge to the northeast should take 16S away from Fiji over the coming days, on a track to the southeast. 16S has winds of 35kts, and has formative banding features wrapping into broken convection over the LLCC. The environment supports at least some slow intensification over the coming several days, before waters cool and shear increases with latitude, which will eventually bring about extratropical transition. Before this occurs, JTWC expect a peak of 60kts.

The third tropical depression of the West Pacific season has formed about 300 nautical miles south-southeast of Guam. Winds are at 30kts according to both JMA and JTWC. 03W has increasingly persistant convection over the LLCC, something the system has struggled with over the last day or so. Shear is moderate, but poleward outflow is excellent, which is helping sustain the convection. Shear should ease over the next day or so, promoting strengthening. JTWC expect a peak of 55kts before 03W moves over cooler waters and higher shear again, and begins extratropical transition, expected to begin in 5 days time. 03W is currently in a weakly defined steering envrionment, but ridging to the northeast should excert more dominance over 03W over the next few days, driving the depression to the north.

Guito's peak remained 65kts. The cyclone has now slipped south out of the Mozambique Channel and has dissipated over colder waters and high shear.

Guito has continued to intensify, and winds are now at 65kts. Guito's inner core has become much more established today, and an eye is emerging from the newly formed central dense overcast. Dual outflow channels, warm water and reletively low shear have fuelled this intensification. Guito is probably nearing it's peak, as sea temperatures fall away soon on the southerly track.

The system has now been named Guito by MeteoFrance. Winds are up to 45kts according to JTWC. Guito retains a fairly broad circulation but with strong banding. Outflow is good in both the poleward and equatorward quadrants of Guito, and shear is fairly low. Water should remain warm for about another 36hrs along track. With all this in mind, Guito should further intensify, and JTWC have upped the forecast peak to 70kts. Guito should continue to move south along the western flank of a ridge to the east, before an approaching trough recurves Guito to the southeast over increasing shear and colder waters to the southwest of Madagascar.

A bit of a nip in the air after an overnight low of 1.0C, with temperature currently at 6.7C and rising, but I'm not complaining! The sunshine is unbroken . Why can we not have a couple weeks of this? Surely it's not too much to ask for! Lol I know that feeling, I've practically lived in wellies over the last month or so.

Fobane is hanging on as a tropical cyclone, just. The cyclone continues to drift slowly southwestwards over marginal sea temps, and through dry air. Some shallow convection remains near the tightly wrapped LLC. Winds are down to 35kts. As dry air continues to surround Fobane, and sea temps continue to fall as Fobane drifts poleward, the convection should completely decay, which will be followed by a spin down of the LLC. JTWC expect Fobane to degnerate into a remnant low in about 12 hours.

Had a snow shower this morning, now just had a very loud crack of thunder!

Maybe it's to do with the fact that Fobane is now a vertically shallow system, thus the relatively weak ridge is enough to steer it? Fobane peaked at 60kts but is now weakening on it's southwesterly leg of the forecast track. Winds are down to 45kts. The cyclone retains well defined circulation but only shallow convection, which is probably due to the fact Fobane is surrounded by dry air and is now over cooler waters. Further slow weakening is forecast as Fobane drifts towards the southwest, and JTWC indicate dissipation within 36 hours.

Storms at the the latitude showed on that track forecast often head southeast, there must be a strong blocking high stopping it from taking the usual path out of the tropics. TC Favio from 2007 is the most recent example of a cyclone I can think of at high latitude refusing to sink south and instead stubbornly moving west.

Fobane has strengthened to 55kts. The trough impinging on the outflow and sustaining shear over Fobane has actually moved sufficiently far enough way to decrease shear, though it is still supressing poleward outflow. Equatorward outflow however, is good. The strong equatorward outflow and lower shear should allow Fobane to intensify further, and JTWC are expecting a peak of 70kts, cat 1 on the SS scale. Fobane is still heading southeastwards, but should turn south then southwest soon.

Edilson has dissipated over cold waters and high shear. Regneration is not expected as the remnants continue to move out of the tropics.

8.2mm of rain fell here last night. Looks like these showers have the potential to dump more rain than the main band itself, especially as they seem to be organising into lines.

Tropical Depression 11 has been upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Fobane by MeteoFrance. Fobane is still struggling under shear and supressed outflow, although it has managed to sustain some deep convection over the LLCC. Winds remain at 35kts according to JTWC. Fobane seems to be finally heading east-southeastwards as ridging to the east gains steering influence. The S shaped track is still expected as ridging builds to the south and guides Fobane back towards the southwest. Fobane is expected to strengthen, but only modestly. It seems that a nearby trough is not expected to pull away from Fobane, and whilst it is there, some at least moderate shear will continue, but also outflow will remain poor.

Was a really nice day today, why oh why can it not last? It honestly felt like Spring!

11 has struggled under unexpected shear over the last 12hrs. JTWC have upgraded the system to a 35kt tropical cyclone, but MeteoFrance have kept the system as a 30kt tropical depression. Convection is flaring near the LLCC, but there isn't really any strong banding features as yet. 11 is drfting south but should turn east-southeastwards soon as ridging builds to the east. This motion is not expected to last long as a bend in track back towards the southwest (an S shape track) should occur as a new ridge builds in south of the system. Shear is expected to ease, which should allow the system to finally strengthen.

Edilson did not strengthen any further, because shear increased due to an advancing trough. Shear of up to 30kts has continue to affect Edilson today, and winds have fallen to 45kts. The LLCC is almost entirely exposed, with the remaining shallow convection sheared off to the south. Extratropical transition will begin very soon as sea temperatures decline quickly as Edilson moves poleward.