Somerset Squall

Had another nice thunderstorm this morning. The thunder wasn't overly loud this time, but the lightning was pretty frequent and the rain was torrential! Brings the total number of thunderstorms this year to 10, half of which have occured in the last 3 weeks!

90L got close to becoming the season's first tropical depression, it had a well defined centre, but convection was constantly stripped away by shear. The LLCC has now moved inland over Eastern Mexico.

Any circulation associated with Boris is rapidly dissipating, as the system moves over the rugged terrain of southeastern Mexico. NHC have kept Boris at tropical depression status for now, but will likely downgrade Boris this afternoon. However, the heavy rainfall threat is nowhere near over, Boris' remnants, combined with a trough over the Bay Of Campeche, will likely provide rains in this area for days to come.

Post season analysis next year should shed more light on it Cookie, we will know then

30 inches! That doesn't bear thinking about!

Indeed, the second tropical depression of the season has formed, with winds of 25kts. Convection has really started to build nicely with this system now, something that had been lacking over the previous few days. 02E is still a broad system, but it should continue to organise as shear is low and waters very warm. The question is, how long will 02E have over water? Models are in disagreement on how slowly 02E will track northwards towards landfall. The slower the track, the more time 02E will have to strengthen over water. Regardless of strength at landfall, eastern Mexico and neighbouring countries could receive up to 20 inches of rainfall from 02E over the coming days, which will in no doubt cause serious flooding and increase the risk of mudslides.

Had a rather hefty downpour a few hours ago, with a couple flashes of lightning and quite a few loud rumbles of thunder as it cleared. Certainly been spoilt with these storms recently

Amanda has been torn apart by shear and dry air this morning. The LLC is elongating, and the intense convection of the yesterday has all but disappeared. Winds are down to 35kts. Weakening to a tropical depression seems imminent, and degeneration into a remnant low soon thereafter.

Looks like cirrus clouds to me. As they are moving in the opposite direction to the convection, it is a clear indication that Amanda is strongly sheared.

Amanda has rapidly weakened overnight, and has lost hurricane status, with winds now at 60kts. Some intense convection persists near the LLCC, but the eye has broken down. Shear and dry air will continue to weaken Amanda through today.

Yep, it's improved satellite appearance didn't last long. There is a closed eye under there apparently though according to NHC.

Amanda's winds dropped to 90kts overnight, but the hurricane has re-strengthened unexpectedly to 110kts this morning. The central dense overcast has deepened, and a clear eye has emerged once more. Shear is still affecting Amanda, so it is surprising the hurricane has managed to re-intensify. Sea ttempertures continue to decline further north, and the shear is expected to resume the weakening trend soon. Shear is forecast to ease in a day or two, so the rate of weakening could slow at this time. With Amanda's current intensification in a seemingly hostile environment, it makes the intensity forecast a lot more difficult than normal.

After looking rather lopsided the afternoon and the eye disappearing from view, Amanda has made a comeback this evening, with a more symmetrical central dense overcast and a visible eye once more. However, winds continue to fall, and Amanda is now a 105kt cat 3. Weakening will continue as Amanda moves slowly northwards.

Shear has continued to affect Amanda today. The hurricane is still a cat 4 on the SS scale, but winds have reduced to 115kts. The eye is intermittently visible on satellite imagery. Amanda will continue to weaken over the next few days as shear continues to rise and waters cool along track.

Amanda has weakened slightly, to 130kts, still a strong cat 4. The eye has become a little cloud filled, and cloud tops have warmed in the central dense overcast. An eyewall replacement cycle looks like it could begin soon. If this does occur, Amanda could weaken fairly briskly as dry air manages to intrude further into the core of Amanda.

Wow, what a debut the first usage of the name Amanda is turning out to be. Amanda has taken Adolph's place as the strongest May hurricane on record as Sainsbo has stated. I'd love Amanda just to make that 5kt jump and become a cat 5, if she is to do it, it will need to be in the next 6 hrs really. Amanda has slowed even further and is crawling northwards at 2kts. This is already causing upwelling of colder water to the ocean surface according to NHC, which will serve to weaken Amanda soon. Shear rises further north, which will eventually bring about this amazing hurricane's demise.

Satellite loop of Amanda:

It really did, the lack of sunshine did that I suppose. It really felt like the temperature remained in single figures all day. Today is a much better start, granted there is rather a lot of cloud about, but some sunny spells too. And it's dry. 15C currently, and it feels vastly warmer than yesterday

North Indian Ocean: Shear increased over 92B shortly after I posted, and the TCFA was cancelled by JTWC. Shear has kept the system below tropical cyclone strength as it has veered northwestwards and crossed the Bay of Bengal, towards the east coast of India. There remains some deep convection near the ill defined LLCC, which is delivering some very heavy rains to Vishakhapatnam and surrounding areas. JTWC assess TC formation chances as MEDIUM currently, though I think it's unlikely 92B will become a tropical cyclone before moving inland. West Pacific: No invests.

Amanda has bombed overnight. Winds are now at 120kts, cat 4 on the SS scale, making Amanda the season's first major hurricane. Amanda is the second earliest major hurricane on record, only behind Major Hurricane Bud of 2012. However, Amanda is stronger than Bud (Bud's peak was 100kts), so Amanda is the strongest storm for so early in the season on record. It is not yet the strongest May hurricane; that title is still held by Major Hurricane Adolph in 2001 (125kts), but Amanda does have a real shot at beating this as Amanda could strengthen further through the rest of today. Amanda has a ring of very deep convection surrounding a small, clear, well defined eye presently, and is not showing any sings of weakening yet.

Sporting a pinhole eye now, Amanda should be a major hurricane very soon:

What an awful day here. Moderate but persistant rainfall, not a glimmer of sunshine and feeling pretty chilly. I'm hoping for an improvement tomorrow.

Amanda has become the season's first hurricane, with winds of 65kts. SHIPS rapid intensification index shows a 60% chance of a 40kt intensity gain in the next 24hrs. So it is clear that the current rapid intensification is probably not over.

Amanda has rapidly strengthened overnight, with winds now at 55kts according to NHC. Amanda has developed a circular central dense overcast feature and is developing an eye. Amanda should become a hurricane later today, and then should continue to rapidly strengthen as shear remains very low and waters warm. NHC forecast a peak of 90kts, but Amanda could easily become stronger than this due to the tight inner core and the very favourable envrionment. Don't be surprised to see Amanda attain major hurricane status over the next day or so (100kt+ winds, cat 3 or above on SS scale). Amanda is currently pushing slowly west-northwestwards, and this motion will continue for about another 24 hours. After this time, ridging is expected to strengthen east of Amanda, and a trough is expected to approach from the west. This should accelerate Amanda to the north, sending the cyclone over cooler waters and increasing shear, which should cause weakening beyond 48 hours. The Eastern Pacific season is certainly in business

Looking more and more impressive: