Somerset Squall

Tapah has become a typhoon this morning, with winds of 65kts according to JTWC. Tapah remains a compact system with a solid central dense overcast and tightly wrapped banding. Tapah has another 12-24hrs to strengthen before it runs into higher shear and cooler waters aloing track.

Tapah remains a well organised system, though the rapid strengthening episode has ceased. Winds are up to 55kts according to JTWC. Tapah retains a well established central dense overcast flanked by banding, and the occasional glimpses of an eye-like feature. Tapah is still expected to become a typhoon as it moves northwards over the next 24hrs. A building ridge to the north should temporarily steer Tapah northwestwards beyond 24hs, until the storm gets picked up by a trough and sent northeastwards out of the tropics.

Had a few lightish showers pass over my location which then seemed to intensify and blow up to my west. Typical!

Tropical Depression 06W hs rapidly strengthened overnight and has become Tropical Storm Tapah, with winds of 50kts according to JTWC. Tapah has a soild central dense overcast, with an eye rapidly forming. Tapah should become a typhoon in the next 12hrs, the second of this active start to the season. sign of things to come? Last year, we had only one tropical storm and one tropical depression by this point. This year, we have had four tropical storms, one typhoon (soon to be two by the looks of things) and one tropical depression.

Winds are up to 30kts now. Currently some very deep convection over LLCC:

JTWC have upgraded the system to a tropical depression, with winds of 25kts. TD 06W is moving northwards along the western flank of a subtropical ridge to the east. Shear is low, and outflow good, so 06W should strengthen and become a tropical storm over the next couple days, before eventually weakening as the system reaches cooler water and higher shear with increasing lattitude.

We've had some pretty heavy showers here today, and looks like we are going to get clobbered by a rather intense line of rain in the next hour.

Chances now been downgraded to LOW by JTWC, due to shear and land interaction making development less likely.

Missed the storms yesterday, but a rather wet start this morning as their remnants have dipped south. A very mild start though, with temperatures at 10.3C @ 7am.

Jack is dissipating, as the deep convection that was being sustained by strong poleward outflow, has diminished this morning. Shear continues to increase as Jack slips south, and dry air has fully wrapped around the system. JTWC have issued their last advisory.

Some very bright echoes (white) approaching my location from the east. Is it just torrential rain or an embedded thunderstorm?

Jack has continued to strengthen, with winds now at 90kts according to JTWC, cat 2 on the SS scale. The severe cyclone continues to produce intense convection obscuring an eye feature, but the central dense overcast doesn't look as symmetrical as yesterday, with some elongation noted by JTWC, caused by the trough approaching from the west. This has happened a little sooner than originally thought, and as the trough moves closer, it will increase the shear over Jack, whilst steering the cyclone on a more south-southeasterly trajectory. As the trough seems to already be affecting Jack, the cyclone may have peaked.

Winds are up to 55kts according to JTWC. An eye feature is becoming evident in the central dense overcast. JTWC predict further rapid strengthening, with a peak of 100kts.

BOM have upgraded 16U to Tropical Cyclone Jack, with winds of 45kts. Jack should continue to strengthen, perhaps rapidly. The cyclone is heading west-southwest but should turn south then southeast in respsonse to an approaching trough. This trough will eventually shear Jack apart, but not for another 48-60hrs.

JTWC have upgraded the system to Tropical Cyclone 24S, with winds of 40kts. As Vorticity has mentioned, 24S has some very well developed banding, with a forming central dense overcast feature. Shear is low, waters very warm, and outflow excellent. Based on the impressive structure of 24S and highly favourable environment, rapid intensification is likely over the next 48hrs, with JTWC indicating a peak of 80kts in 48hrs, before 24S runs into higher shear further south.

Track map issued by BOM, it'll be touch and go whether it will be named by them or MeteoFrance (AOR boundary is at 90E):

Looking very impressive this evening, bound to be upgraded soon:

A tropical low has formed near the boundary between BOM's area of responsibility (AOR) and MeteoFrance's AOR, in the Southeastern Indian Ocean. The low is becoming increasingly well organised, with deepening convection and formative banding wrapping into an increasingly well defined LLC. 16U is forecast to head westwards across 90 degrees E into the MeteoFrance's AOR where it is likely to become a named storm before reversing track and heading back into BOM's AOR this weekend. Conditions appear favourable for strengthening over the next few days.

Kudos to JTWC for consistantly indicating a sharper turn to the south and re-emergence over water, which looks likely to occur soon. BOM have come into line now, forecasting Ita to maintain cat 1 intensity (Australian scale) as it moves southeastwards parallel to the coast and eventually out of the tropics.

Looks like an eyewall replacement cycle weakened Ita a little before landfall, and prevented the cyclone making cat 5 on the SS scale, instead peaking at 135kts, which is the upper reaches of cat 4.

JTWC have increased the winds to 115kts on their latest update, cat 4 on the SS scale. Cat 5 on this scale is still a distinct possibility as shear remains low and outflow excellent.

Ita us now a cat 5 on the Australian scale, with winds of 110kts according to BOM. Note that this isn't a cat 5 on the SS scale, we will find out shortly what JTWC assesses the wind speed at. The eye has cleared out, and is surrounded by very deep convection. Further intensification is likely. Queensland are bracing themselves for a destructive monster.

Ita continues to streadily strengthen as has already been said, winds are up to 85kts according to BOM. I think some quicker strengthening could be imminant; the CDO is much more symmetrical now Ita has moved away from Papua New Guinea, and the eye has become better defined, albeit cloud filled. Shear is still low and waters very toasty, which lends weight to the possibility of a burst of intensification if that eye clears out.

Peipah continues to be pumelled by strong southeasterly shear. Winds have fluctuated between 25 and 30kts over the past two days, but are currently only at 25kts. The depression has continued to limp towards the Philippines on a very slow west-northwesterly track. There have been multiple LLCC's popping up in various locations around the persistant but disorganised convection. This is a sign of a system losing the battle against the shear. Peipah may well dissipate before reaching the Philippines, but JTWC forecast Peipah to hang on in there until landfall. Currently, convection is on the decrease, and the centre of circulation is very poorly defined, so Peipah could be on the way out.

Cat 4 on the Australian Scale before landfall I see. Looking increasingly dangerous for anyone in it's path. Winds are up to 65kts currently, making Ita a Severe Tropical Cyclone (BOM classification). Interesting point from BOM about interaction with Papua New Guinea, this looks to already be having an effect with shallower convection on the northern side of the developing, ragged eye.