Somerset Squall

01E continues to organise and has become Tropical Storm Amanda, with winds of 35kts. Convection continues to build over the LLCC, with banding features wrapping into the storm. Amanda is expected to become a hurricane in a few days time, but it could occur sooner as there is a chance of rapid intensification.

The first tropical depression of the 2014 Eastern Pacific season has formed several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, from invest 92E. 01E has a well defined LLCC, and convection has become persistant over this centre. 01E is being steered slowly west by a ridge over Mexico, but the influence is weak, therefore, motion is expected to be slow. Shear is low, and waters warm, so strengthening seems likely. Just how much strengthening is uncertain, but given the increasingly impressive structure of the depression and favourable environment, rapid strengthening is a possibility in the near term, as evidenced by the ships rapid intensification index indicating a 42% chance of a 25kt increase in intensity in the next 24hrs. 01E looks to have about 4 days in this favourable envrionment, so I think 01E does have a shot at becoming a hurricane unless shear increases prematurely.

92E is becoming much better organised. Convection is blossoming over an increasingly well defined LLC. NHC are now assessing the chances of TC formation in the next 48hrs as 60%.

Had the 3rd thunderstorm in 3 days here at about 12 noon. The rain was insanely heavy, but the lightning wasn't overly frequent. The storm seemed to rumble more frequently as it cleared away however. This year is doing much better than the previous few years already!

Invest 92E has formed several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Convection is steadily increasing near a developing area of low pressure. Shear looks low and waters warm, so further development is possible. NHC say there is a 30% chance of 92E becoming the season's first tropical depression in the next 48hrs and a 50% chance in the next 5 days.

North Indian Ocean: Invest 92B has formed in the southeastern Bay Of Bengal. Convection is becoming increasingly persistent over a fairly well defined LLC. Shear is at moderate levels currently, but waters are warm and there is some good upper level outflow over the system. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system, indicating cyclone formation as 92B drifts towards the north or northeast. If this system forms, it'll become the second cyclone of the season (the first was back in January.) West Pacific: No invests.

Second thunderstorm of the day here . Some very close lightning about 10 minutes ago, and very loud thunder. Rain was torrential!

We are having a pretty intense thunderstorm here at the moment, seen 5 lots of forked lightning so far and the thunder is VERY loud. Rain torrential, roads resemble rivers currently!

We are having a pretty intense thunderstorm here at the moment, seen 5 lots of forked lightning so far and the thunder is VERY loud. Rain torrential, roads resemble rivers currently!

91E is still producing some vigorous convection but still lacks a well defined centre. NHC have dropped development chances to 20%, but state that development chances will increase if the centre reforms further east nearer the largest convective mass. Overall, still a very disorganised invest.

The last thing I want is cool and wet. Had enough of that this Winter!

21-24C with unbroken sunshine by day, with an occasional nighttime thunderstorm to keep the drought away

The system has now been tagged invest 91E. The system is showing signs of slow organisation, but as Vorticity has said, it has a little way to go yet. However, conditions do look favourable. NHC have upped the chances for TC development to 40% in the next 48 hours and 60% in the next 5 days.

The East Pacific season has officially started as of today, but there are currently no disturbed areas to discuss after the dissipation of invest 90E. From NHC:

This thread is to discuss the ongoing Western Pacific Typhoon season and also the North Indian Ocean cyclone season of 2014. Individual disturbances and invests can also be discussed here, and an individual thread made when a system reaches Tropical Depression/storm status by JTWC or JMA. The West Pacific season has already gotten off to an active start, with 5 named storms, of which 2 have reached typhoon strength (JTWC classification), and a tropical depression. This activity has occured earlier than normal, you don't normally see these kind of number until you get into July most years. Will it continue? Well, an above normal season is forecast, in part due to the developing El Nino, which favours increased tropical cyclone activity over the Pacific due to warmer seas and generally lower shear.

Blimey, that's likely to cause some dangerous mudslides and flooding for sure!

Shear has displaced convection well northeast of the ill defined LLC of 90E. 90E is bringing very heavy rains to Mexico and will continue to do so over the next day or so. Development chances have been reduced to 20% by NHC however, due to the shear and land interaction.

Indeed Vorticity, looks can be deceiving. I recall many instances of Atlantic waves looking very much like tropical storms on satellite imagery, even with apparent banding features, and even having winds of storm force, but to not actually be a tropical cyclone due to the lack of a closed LLC. 91B's only chance is if it moves away from land.

Development chances have now been raised to 50% by NHC. An early appearance of Amanda looks more and more likely. This rainbow loop shows the gradual organisation of 90E, and also that the invest is a very large disturbance:

JTWC still assess the risk of TC development as MEDIUM, stating that the LLC is still quite broad. I think some land interaction is coming into play here, and this could become an issue for the invest as it tracks very close to southern India. There is a large blow up of convection west of the LLCC, but a lack of organised convection directly over the centre.

Now been declared invest 90E. NHC have issued a special tropical dusturbance statement, indicating a medium chance, 30%, of tropical depression formation in the next 48hrs. Certainly a good looking disturbance, still broad but it's organising well in the currently low shear. How long the shear will stay low is open to question however.

Certainly an active start to the season, and with the developing El Nino, it could be an active season overall.

Not looking too bad, looks dry for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Not overly warm, but a slightly warmer by Monday, but with increased cloud.

April's rain above average, making it the third out of four months to have above average rainfall so far this year. January: 182.7mm (well above average) February: 172.0mm (well above average) March: 49.0mm (slightly below average) April: 74.8mm (above average) 2014 so far: 478.5mm (well above average)

Tapah has gone, and JTWC have issued their last advisory.