Somerset Squall

Only 3.1mm here so far. Looks like that is going to change somewhat over the next hour or so. The heaviest rain has stayed southeast most of the day, but the same can't be said for the latest clump of convection.

MeteoFrance have declared the next tropical depression, to the northeast of Severe Tropical Storm Edilson, and a few hundred miles south of Diego Garcia. Convection is increasing over the LLCC, with formative banding features becoming evident. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert. Shear is low and waters are warm, so tropical depression 11 should strengthen decently as it heads southeastwards.

Edilson has continued to strengthen, and winds are now at 55kts according to JTWC. Strong banding continues to wrap towards the central dense overcast in which an eye feature is beginning to emerge. With good outflow and low shear, Edilson should strengthen some more over the next 36hrs, before the storm runs into colder water.

The depression was upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Edilson by MeteoFrance this morning, and has since continued to strengthen. Winds are at 40kts according to JTWC. Edilson has much deeper convection over the LLCC this evening, with banding to the south. Heavy rains are affecting Mauritius currently and will eventually affect La Reunion as Edilson moves south-southwestwards along the western periphery of ridging to the east. Shear is low, and waters are warm, so strengthening appears likely. JTWC expect a peak of 65kts, before weakening begins by day 3 as shear rises and waters cool along track. A trough should break down the ridge at this time, sending Edilson to the southeast by day 4/5.

Edna peaked at 50kts. Shear has since battered Edna, and JTWC have issued their last advisory, bringing winds down to 35kts. The circulation is unravelling under the strong shear, and the convection has completely departed the LLCC. Regeneration is not expected as Edna continues to slip polewards.

The remnant low of Fletcher remains overland and has not moved westward back over the GOC. Regeneration is increasingly unlikely as the remnants have become even less organised over land.

January very wet here, unsurprisingly. January: 182.7mm (well above average)

Had a gust of 63mph recorded by my weather station about an hour ago, certainly rough out there!!

Edna has redeveloped into a tropical cyclone, with winds of 35kts. Edna has a small area of convection over the LLCC, with some limited banding features. Edna has made a large looping motion over the Coral Sea and is currently moving southwards just west of New Caledonia. Ridging to the east is expected to continue to push Edna southwards over the next few days. Shear is moderate over Edna, and as Edna is a small tropical cyclone, it isn't forecast to handle this well, and significant intensification is not expected. As Edna heads further south, shear gets stronger, and waters colder, which should eventually dissipate Edna for the second, and probably final time in about 72-96hrs.

Fletcher moved east and made landfall on the southeast coast of the Gulf Of Carpentria yesterday afternoon and has remained over land since. The system was downgraded to a remnant low last night. The westward turn looks to be materialising now, and the remnant low appears to be moving back over water. This should allow the low to become a minimal tropical cyclone again before it makes another landfall, south of Sweers Island. As the system is not expected to be over water for long, significant intensification appears unlikely before the second landfall.

Edna looks like it may become a TC again soon, convection increasing near the remnant low as it moves through the Coral Sea.

08U has become much better organised as it has moved over the warm waters of the far south of the Gulf Of Carpentaria (GOC), and has become Tropical Cyclone Fletcher, with winds of of 35kts. Convection is persistant over the LLCC, and there are good banding features in the northern quadrant of the cyclone. Fletcher is approaching landfall on the eastern shore of the GOC, and BOM expect Fletcher to weaken to a remnant low this afternoon. Once the westward heading materalises, Fletcher should move back over the warm water of the southern GOC and become a tropical cyclone once more, before eventually making landfall where it emerged from! GOC systems always seem to have bizarre tracks!

Ignore that track map now, it seems to have switched to the new low, 08U! As for Edna, it is still just a remnant low at the moment. JTWC have downgraded development potential in the next 24 hours to LOW. Edna's remnants should continue to move north then northeast well east of Queensland.

A tropical low has formed just inland from the southern Gulf Of Carpentaria, about 150 miles west of Mornington Island. The low is showing some rotation, and some limited convection forming as it feeds of warm waters to the north. The system is expected to drift eastwards over land over the next 12 hours or so and then emerge over warm waters, where it is expected to strengthen and become a tropical cyclone. As 08U becomes a tropical cyclone and a more vertically deep system, it is forecast to track back west under the influence of ridging to the south. Heavy rains are a primary concern from this system.

Kajiki became disorganised overland and has since being overwhelmed by shear and dry air over the South China Sea. Kajiki jas therefore dissipated.

Overnight, a tiny tropical cyclone rapidly spun up a few hundred miles off the coast of Queensland. Named Edna, it had winds of 35kts this morning, but winds have since weakened to 30kts, prompting BOM to declare Edna an remnant low. Convection was persistant over the small LLC this morning, but shear has risen which has caused the convection to flare and wane, which has caused the LLC to weaken. Ex-Edna is currently drifting west but is expected to swing north then northeast around the west side of a trough over the Coral Sea. This trough is expected to keep shear at moderate to high levels across the system, so BOM do not expect Edna to become a TC again, though they aren't ruling it out. JTWC have not recognised this system as having reached TC intensity, instead just giving the system's chances of development a MEDIUM risk. An unusual track to say the least. And a blink and you'll miss it kind of cyclone, unless it comes back:

Absolutely hammering it down, currently 8.2C.

02W has intensified modestly overnight and has become the season's second named storm, Kajiki, with winds of 35kts according to JMA. Convection has dramatically increased overnight, and the storm is taking on a more symmetrical appearance. This is not good news for the southern Philippines, as it looks like rain will now be a big issue. Land interaction should disrupt Kajiki soon, but it isn't out of the question that the storm could become a little stronger prior to landfall.

Dylan made landfall last night and has since weakened inland. Dylan is forecast to continue moving inland whilst dissipating.

Impressive looking system, and a prolific rainmaker by the looks of things!

Tropical Depression 02W has formed just east of the southern Philippines, in the area that TS Lingling formed earlier in the month. Winds are at 25kts according to JTWC. Convection is displaced to the northwest of the poorly defined LLCC due to moderate shear. This moderately sheared environment is expected to prevent 02W from strengthening significantly as it tracks westwards towards the islands of the southern Philippines. Land interaction will serve to weaken the system in a day or so, and recovery is not expected once the system reaches the South China Sea.

Dylan has continued to strengthen, and winds are now at 55kts according to JTWC and BOM. Landfall should occur in 6-9 hours time, currently progged to be near Bowen and Proserpine. High winds will move inland to join the heavy rains which are affecting a large swathe of the Queensland coast. Dylan has probably peaked.

The cyclone has been named Dylan by BOM. JTWC have upped the winds to 45kts this morning. Dylan is looking a lot better this morning, with deeper centralised convection and continued banding which has become more curved. Shear has eased and is now at a low level. Dylan could strengthen a little more today before landfall disrupts the circulation.

JTWC have upgraded the low to Tropical Cyclone 11P this morning. 11P doesn't have a great deal of convection directly over the LLCC, but does have two strong bands wrapping towards it. Moderate shear is currently hampering 11P, but shear is expected to ease, and with warm waters along the southwesterly track, JTWC expect a peak of 50kts before landfall.

Yep, it's never ending it really is! Been cut off here for 3 weeks now, and with the outlook, it could easily be another 3, but probably even longer than this. Not surprised about the Amber alert for here.