Somerset Squall

Ian has undergone a period of rapid intensficiation overnight. Winds are up to 85kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. Ian developed a well defined eye overnight, which has since become obscured by cloud. Ian has veered east also, and should turn south-southeastwards soon. For about another 36hrs, the environment supports some intensification. As Ian gains lattitude, waters cool, and shear also rises, which will initiate extratropical transition in a few days time.

I didn't actually see her until the report. People here may had seen the funny side if things weren't so bad and for so long.

As much as I love snow and get excited like a child when I see it falling, I have never wanted it less. I would quite literally like no precipitation to fall for the next 6 months please. EDIT: Well it seems I only got 4 minutes! About sums up the last month really.

Ian's winds are up to 60kts according to JTWC. But I agree Vorticity, Ian looks like it is undergoing rapid intensification. This, perhaps, shouldn't be all that surprising given Ian's small size and the drastic improvement in outflow Ian has experienced today. I expect that emerging eye will clear out very nicely soon.

Ian has finally started to strengthen. Winds are up to 45kts currently. Ian's satellite signature is much improved this evening, with the shapeless blob now morphing into wrapped convection. The steering environment has remained weak, but Ian has drifted northwards slowly. Further strengthening is likely for the next few days.

Interesting to note that Fiji Met brings Ian up to 75kts- certainly being much more aggressive than JTWC.

Just had a flash of lightning to my southwest, with a rumble of thunder after. Looks quite angry on the radar approaching my location.

01B has fallen apart over Sri Lanka. JTWC have issued their last advisory. Heavy rains may continue for a day or two.

The first tropical cyclone of the South Pacific 2013-14 season has formed at around 19S, 175W, to the east of Fiji. Ian is a tightly wrapped but small system, with some deep convection and formative banding features. Winds are at 35kts. Shear is low over Ian, and waters warm along track. This should allow some intensification over the coming days, which could be rapid due to Ian's small size. The cyclone is currently heading southeast along the southwest side of a ridge to the northeast. This ridge is expected to lose influence of Ian in a day or so, and a ridge to the south is expected to turn Ian back towards the west. The timing of this turn is uncertain, and there is some spread in model guidance. Ian is the first cyclone to form in Fiji'a area of responsibility of the South Pacific since Haley in February of last year.

01B has strengthened to 40kts. The cyclone is close to landfall on northern Sri Lanka. 01B is still rather lopsided due to shear and dry air. With land interaction becoming an increasing factor too, 01B should soon dissipate.

Here's hoping then! Maybe I can skate out of here lol

Sadly, snow doesn't settle on floodwater

Bejisa is moving to the southwest for reasons that Vorticity explained. The cyclone is gradually weakening, due to moderate shear and falling along track sea temperatures. Good poleward outflow is slowing the weakening trend however. Winds are down to 45kts according to JTWC. Bejisa remains very well structured but convection is on the wane. As sea temps continue to decline as Bejisa heads southwest, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low in a day or so.

The first tropical cyclone of the 2014 season has formed early (or is it a late one from the 2013 season? lol), just to the east of Sri Lanka. Convection is being sheared west of a partially exposed LLCC. The convection associated with 01B is providing heavy rains to Sri Lanka, and the far southeast of India. A subtropical ridge to the north will steer 01B towards landfall in northern Sri Lanka, which should occur in just over 36hrs time. There is some question whether 01B will survive as a tropical cyclone that long; shear is not expected to abate from the current moderate levels, and dry air may become a negative factor as 01B approaches land. One thing we can be more confident of however is that 01B is not likely to strengthen anymore past it's current 35kt intensity.

This thunderstorm is insane! The thunder is so loud, the lightning frequent, and the hail has turned everything white!

Bejisa has reached a new peak, 110kts according to JTWC. This image shows Bejisa very near La Reunion:

Bejisa has again strengthened to 105kts, cat 3 on the SS scale, according to JTWC. Bejisa is probably near peak as weakening should occur tomorrow as the cyclone runs into gradually increasing shear, however, Bejisa will still be a signifcant system as it slams in to La Reunion.

Had the mother of all downpours at about 5pm. Haven't seen rain like that in quite a while! Had 21.5mm so far today.

Looking at satellite imagery this morning, Bejisa has completed the Eye Wall Replacement Cycle. Bejisa has a new eye which is a little larger and, at least currently, not as sharply defined as the old eye. Winds are down to 90kts. Now the EWRC is complete, restrengthening should occur, and this is forecast by both JTWC and MeteoFrance. Latest track from MeteoFrance shows an impact on the island of La Reunion, with Mauritius not expected to be impacted quite so much. Bejisa should be weakening by this point due to higher shear values to the south, but flooding rains and strong winds are still expected.

Happy New Year to all! Sadly, I missed out on the thundery activity last night. It chucked it down for a bit but there wasn't any thunder or lightning here. This morning is awful, we are certainly starting 2014 on a very similar note to how 2013 ended. I echo Andy's sentiments above, it certainly does remind me of the Dec 23rd storm, had 13.0mm so far today, so a little way to reach the 36.2mm that fell that day but it does look like that familiar RAIN lull RAIN pattern of that day. Any amount of rainfall will certainly not help the conditions out here.

How these words I said at the end of last month have haunted me! December comes in well above average, despite only 6.0mm of rain falling in the first 14 days of the month. The wet month brings 2013's rainfall total comfortably above average. January: 95.2mm (above average)February: 43.1mm (below average)March: 55.9mm (average) April: 27.3mm (well below average) May: 57.4mm (above average) June: 28.0mm (well below average) July: 71.7mm (well above average) August: 58.3mm (average) September: 69.9mm (slightly above average) October: 128.5mm (well above average) November: 80.9mm (above average) December: 121.4mm (well above average) 2013 final total: 837.6mm (above average)

Bejisa is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which has caused weakening to 95kts. Once the eyewall replacement is complete, Bejisa should restrengthen. On the current forecast track, La Reunion look to be in the firing line from Bejisa, with a lesser impact expected on Mauritius.

Chrstine has held itself together remarkably a long way inland, still a cat 1 TC on the Australian scale into central Western Australia!

Winds now at 105kts, cat 3 on the SS scale. What a beaut!

Bejisa's intensity continues to rocket up, with winds now at 90kts. MeteoFrance have declared Bejisa an "Intense Tropical Cyclone" which makes it the third cyclone out of three so far in the Southwest Indian Ocean to achieve this status. Bejisa could continue to rapidly strengthen over the next day or so whilst waters remain warm, shear reletively low and outflow excellent.