Somerset Squall

Melissa has become extratropical. The storm will continue east then slightly south of east as it comes up against blocking. Models indicate the extratropical storm to dissipate in situ thereafter.

I was just about to post something about this Cookie. An amazing system, it really is. The storm originally formed on the 3rd November, and it's remnants are still persisting. To put this low's life into context, 30W formed at the same time as Super Typhoon Haiyan, and as we all know, that beast was gone long ago. The remnant low, since degenerating over India, emerged over the Arabian Sea. The low has crossed the Arabian Sea and is just east of the island of Sumatra. This is it's track, the triangles indicate the times it is below TC strength (as it is now). Amazing! What also makes it more impressive is that during this system's entire lifetime, it has not gotten any stronger than 35kts. A persistant one to say the least! The remnant low has been largely convectionless through it's journey across the Arabian Sea, but there has been a little increase in convection this morning. The low may be too weak to make a significant comeback however, and JTWC don't mention it in their outlook.

I would imagine the seas would be fairly rough in the vicinity of the storm, Melissa though is a fairly compact and relatively weak storm at present. I don't really know for sure though Ztam, sorry. If the captain has continued to head towards it then I would gather they don't see it as a significant threat? Melissa itself has weakened to 40kts. The tropical storm is maintaining some deep convection over the LLCC, though this is not expected to last, as sea temps are a decidely chilly 21C beneath the storm currently. This will soon cause extratropical transition (ETT). The Azores may get some rough weather from Melissa over the next day or so. After ETT, Melissa will come up against the large area of high pressure to the west of the UK, and will significantly slow and fill out to sea.

Helen has strengthened a little more, to 60kts according to JTWC. Helen has been upgraded to a severe cyclonic storm by IMD. Helen has finally made some westward progress towards the coast. JTWC note that Helen as upwelled some colder water due to the slow motion of the system, but Helen has left this behind now. Helen has about another 24hrs over water, but shear seems to be increasing and there is another tongue of cooler water near the coast. This means that Helen has probably just about peaked ad should weaken some prior to landfall.

04B has been upgraded to Cyclonic Storm status by IMD, and has been given the name Helen. Winds are up to 50kts according to JTWC. Helen has barely moved today in a weak steering environment, but should move west soon as ridging builds to the north. Helen has the opportunity to strengthen a little more before landfall.

Melissa has become a fully tropical storm, with winds slightly weaker at 50kts. Deep Convection has formed over the centre, and wind radius has contracted to that of a tropical storm. Melissa is racing northeastwards towards cooler water, so weakening then extratropical transition will begin soon.

Winds have risen to 45kts. 04B has quite a tight inner core, so I think 04B has the chance to ramp up quickly, unless shear rises further. JTWC now forecasting a peak of 60kts.

Pressure has continued to fall, now at 982mb. Winds are up to 55kts, but Melissa is still classed as subtropical. The only thing holding NHC back from declaring it tropical is the distinct lack of the convection over the LLCC at present, because, at last, Melissa seems to be detaching itself from the troughing to the east.

The fourth tropical cyclone of the season has formed in the northwest Bay of Bengal. Winds are at 35kts. The cyclone has curved banding features wrapping around a well defined LLCC. Shear is moderate, but waters are warm and outflow is good, which should allow some strengthening before 04B makes landfall on the east coast of India in around 48hrs time. Based on the structure of 04B, I suspect JTWC's forecast peak of 45kts could be a little low.

Still subtropical at the moment, Melissa seems to be having trouble seperating itself from the upper level low. Chances for Melissa to become a hurricane are lessening IMO.

Not really, as this was neither a hurricane nor a tropical cyclone by any stretch. A sad tragedy nonetheless, and as the article states, storms of the strength "Cleopatra" was are unusual in that part of the world.

Winds are up to 50kts as has been said with an estimated pressure of 987mb, typical of a cat 1 hurricane. When Melissa becomes tropical, which I think it is close to doing, it may be close to hurricane strength, which I think it may well achieve.

Now been declared invest 98L. Convection has been increasing today around the developing but still broad area of low pressure. NHC give a 40% chance of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 70% over the next 5 days.

30W has jogged north overnight, and come across stronger shear. Almost all of the convection is now located well inland to the west of the LLCC, and winds have fallen to 30kts. JTWC have issued their last advisory. 30W will make landfall today in Southern India as a tropical depression. This will have little affect, as the rains from 30W are already well inland.

Nine days after degeneration into a remnant low, 30W has redeveloped into a tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean, just off the east coast of Southern India. After landfalling Vietnam 10 days ago, 30W's remains moved across the Gulf Of Thailand, crossed the Malay Peninsula and entered the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal (BOB). Here, the remnant low meandered slowly across the BOB, with little development due to persistant shear. The low has neared the coast of India and has found some slightly lower shear, allowing regeneration into a tropical cyclone. To have 9 days between a storm degenerating below TC strength and regenerating is quite remarkable, and in my memory, can only be matched by TC Hondo's similar feat in the South Indian Ocean in 2008. Though the shear has eased slightly, it is still at moderate levels. As 30W drifts slowly westwards towards the coast, it is unlikely to strengthen much, if at all, past it's current 35kt intensity, due to the shear. Landfall is expected in round 24 hours time over northern Sri Lanka then again in about 36hrs time over southern India. 30W's unusual track so far:

Podul has moved inland and is weakening. JTWC have issued their last advisory. Podul's remains will move over the Gulf Of Thailand and may well make it into the North Indian Ocean's Bay Of Bengal, where there is a small chance of regeneration. However, tropical depression 30W, that did the same last week, has struggled to re-organise, and remnants of this system crossed the Bay Of Bengal with little redevelopment, and are still sat off the coast of Eastern India below tropical cyclone strength.

Organisation has improved significantly with invest 90W this afternoon and the system has been declared Tropical Storm Podul, with winds of 35kts. With landfall expected over southern Vietnam within the next 12hrs, Podul is probably at it's peak. Heavy rains are the primary concern.

Interesting notes from Jeff Masters about 03A's rare landfall, death toll may rise further as 03A's remains are still producing heavy rains: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2577

03A has turned out to be more deadly than category 5 Phailin, with over 100 people reported dead in Somalia from this reletively weak cyclone.

JTWC have issued their last advisory as Haiyan moves further inland. Shear is affecting Haiyan, for the first time in it's life, and this, along with frictional drag across land, will quickly dissipate the system. So Haiyan looks about done as a tropical cyclone, but the clearup and recovery is far from it

It's taken three days, but 03A has finally limped across the coastline. The system weakened to 35kts prior to landfall as shear increased and dry air enveloped the cyclone. It's dimise should be quick as it moves further inland in Somalia.

03A has practically stalled off the coast. Some rains have spread inland but the LLCC and most of the convection remains over water. Winds remain at 40kts. 03A should soon begin to move again and make landfall in about 24 hours time.

Haiyan's track has shifted a little north, meaning Hainan Island is being pounded by the right front quadrant of the storm this morning. Winds are down to 80kts, from a combination of cooler waters and now land interaction. As Haiyan enters the Gulf Of Tonkin, further weakening should take place before final landfall in the extreme north of Vietnam.

There is another invest, 90W, well out to the east that is worth watching. Highly disorganised at present, and is only located a mere 2 degrees north of the equator so it is stuggling to spin, but once it gains some lattitude it could develop.

03A has strengthened slightly to 40kts as it approaches the coast of Somalia. The cyclone has a well defined LLC but only a small cluster of convection near the centre. Shear is low to moderate, but the air to the west remains a little dry. With this in mind, 03A could intensify just a little more prior to landfall.