Somerset Squall

Krosa dissipated before reaching Vietnam. After I last posted, Krosa unravelled quickly in the high shear, and all the convection dissipated.

30W has weakened to 25kts due to land interaction with the islands of the Southern Philippines. Further development will be disrupted by further land interaction, but conditions in the South China sea do support some intensification before landfall on southern Vietnam.

Sonia is making landfall on the west coast of Mexico. The heavy rains have spread well inland, but the LLCC is lagging behind due to shear. Shear, along with frictional drag across the high terrain will ensure quick dissipation.

31W has strengthened and has become Tropical Storm Haiyan, with winds of 35kts. Although the storm is quite broad in nature, some fairly quick intensification is expected as the system moves west-northwest towards the Philippines, as shear looks relatively low along track and waters are very warm east of the Philippines. In fact, JTWC mention the possibility of rapid strengthening on approach to the Philippines. Looks to be a a big concern to the Philippines later this week.

October's rainfall almost double the average! Wettest month of the year so far. January: 95.2mm (above average)February: 43.1mm (below average)March: 55.9mm (average) April: 27.3mm (well below average) May: 57.4mm (above average) June: 28.0mm (well below average) July: 71.7mm (well above average) August: 58.3mm (average) September: 69.9mm (slightly above average) October: 128.5mm (well above average) 2013 so far: 635.3mm (a little above average)

Yeah, it's certainly an active period. It's been a while since we have got into the thirty's in terms of number of systems classified by JTWC in the West Pacific aswell. Looking at that track, I wonder if 30W could make it into the North Indian Ocean?

Krosa has weakened to 65kts. The typhoon is under some moderate shear and is ingesting some dry air, which has caused the weakening. These conditions should cause Krosa to further weaken over the next few days. Krosa has slowed considerably but should make a definite turn towards the southwest soon as a new ridge builds to the northwest of the system. This ridge will guide Krosa towards Vietnam, where landfall is expected in about 36hrs time, south of Hue.

18E has become Tropical Storm Sonia, with winds of 40kts. Yesterday evening, Sonia became much better organised with some very deep convection exploding directly over the LLCC. This convection has persisted since and remains deep. As shear is expected to rise soon, further significant intensification is not expected. However, Sonia should still be a tropical storm at landfall in about 24 hours time. Sonia is moving north but should turn to the northeast very soon south of the southern tip of Baja California.

TD 18E has formed southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Winds are currently at 30kts. The depression is quite disorganised, with more than one LLCC associated with the convective mass. The depression is drifting northwestwards but should turn north then northeast soon as a trough approaches from the west and recurves 18E. The resultant track will bring 18E close to the southern tip of Baja California but ultimately a landfall on the coast of Mexico, north of Mazatlan. Based on the disorganised state of the depression, significant strengthening is not expected. The depression should become a weak tropical storm before waters cool and and shear rises along track.

Interaction with Luzon weakened Krosa to 75kts, but the typhoon has ramped up considerably this evening, and is now a 100kt cat 3 on the SS scale. The small eye I noted when Krosa was skirting the north coast of Luzon was disrupted by land but has now been replaced by a much larger eye which has cleared out this evening. Low shear, warm waters and robust outflow has allowed the rapid strengthening over the last 12 hours. Krosa has continued moving west along the south side of a ridge to the north, but should turn southwestwards soon in the vicinity of Hainan Island as a new ridge builds to the northwest of Krosa. Krosa is probably near peak intensity, as shear is higher where Krosa is headed, plus the typhoon is expected to interact with land soon (Hainan Island). However, Krosa is still likely to be a threat to Vietnam in the longer term, the threat being mainly from flooding rains. In the nearer term however, Hainan Island has this to be concerned about with damaging winds also being very likely.

Krosa is now a 90kt cat 2 typhoon. The eye is clear to see moving just north of the north coast of Luzon.

Dual outflow channels, low shear and very warm water have allowed quick intensification of Krosa. Winds are just below typhoon strength, at 60kts. Krosa is expected to become a typhoon very soon, prior to landfall. JTWC forecast a peak of 75kts prior to landfall on Luzon. After losing some strength crossing land, JTWC forecast Krosa to become a cat 2 typhoon on the SS scale before slamming into Hainan Island.

29W has become Tropical Storm Krosa, with winds of 40kts. Convection has significantly deepened over the LLCC, and banding features have wrapped more tightly into the system. There are even hints of an eye trying to form. This suggests Krosa is about to undergo rapid intensification prior to the first of three landfalls, which is progged to occur in just over 24 hours time.

Very strong shear continues to affect Raymond. Winds are down to 40kts. Despite the shear, some impressively deep convection has been exploding northeast of the LLCC for most of the day. The LLC however, is becoming increasingly elongated as the shear is disrupting it. As Raymond moves northeast, sea temperatures decline, which will most likely mean an end to the deep convection, and therefore an end to Raymond.

The twentyninth tropical depression of the 2013 West Pacific typhoon season has formed roughly 700 nautical miles east of Manila, Philippines. The depression has winds of 30kts. 29W has shallow convection which is gradually becoming better organised about the tightning LLC. Conditions ahead look favourable for intensification, as 29W heads west-northwestwards along the south side of a strong subtropical ridge to the north. Shear is low, and waters are warm east of the Philippines. Therefore, 29W will likely become a typhoon prior to landfall in Luzon in around 2 days time. Crossing the rugged terrain of Luzon will take some strength out of 29W, but re-intensification could occur in the South China Sea (SCS), as waters are also warm here, and shear looks to stay relatively low. 29W should continue west-northwest across the northern SCS and then make a second landfall, this time on Hainan Island, as a typhoon if the conditions allow. A third landfall is then expected after 29W crosses the Gulf Of Tonkin and makes landfall near Hanoi, Vietnam. These three areas need to closely watch 29W, as flooding rains and damaging winds are a serious threat from this system.

01S dissipated yesterday evening, as shear rose sooner than expected.

Raymond's second peak was 90kts (the first was 110kts). Strong shear has since affected Raymond, and winds have fallen to 75kts. The eye has disappeared, and LLCC is becoming partly exposed on the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Further weakening should occur, especially as Raymond will be moving over colder water too.

Raymond's eye has cleared out, and the hurricane is now an 85kt cat 2 on the SS scale. The turn to the northwest is materialising a little quicker than previously anticipated, so Raymond only has just under 12 hours before it runs into the shear and cooler water. Therefore, Raymond is probably near it's second peak.

It has been confirmed by NHC that Raymond is intensifying rapidly. Winds are up to 75kts according to the latest advisory. Although the eye is cloud obscured, it is becoming increasingly well defined. NHC forecast a secondary peak of cat 2 intensity, but I wouldn't rule out Raymond becoming a cat 3 major again before the shear rises.

What I meant by unusual is that instead of the low forming across the Atlantic and moving towards us, it is developing in close proximity, hence why it's a forecasting nightmare. Nothing unusual about it's strength though, I agree

You're forgetting that this event hasn't arrived yet. Things could still change in this volitile set up, even though we are less than 24 hours out. This is not a usual set up, especially as the storm is intensifying so close to the UK.

The first tropical cyclone of the South Indian Ocean 2013-14 season has formed a little before the start of the season. 01S is located 517 nautical miles southwest of Diego Garcia, and well northeast of Madagascar. Winds are at 35kts. 01S has a healthy amount of convection over the LLCC. Ridging to the south will guide 01S generally westwards towards the northern tip of Madagascar over the coming few days. Shear is set to remain favourable for about a day, after which the cyclone is set to run into much higher shear which will induce weakening and ultimately dissipation near Madagascar.

Raymond has become a hurricane for the second time, with winds now at 65kts. The hurricane has a well established central dense overcast with a cloud filled eye. Raymond continues to move westwards but should get picked up by the trough in a couple days time. Therefore, as the trough is going to be the main culprit in the ultimate demise of Raymond, by increasing shear and moving the hurricane over colder water, Raymond has about another 24 hours to strengthen.

Lekima is well on the way to being extratropical. Winds are down to 70kts. Lekima is racing northeastwards at a forward speed of over 30kts, and should have become fully embedded in the mid-lattitude westerlies later today. JTWC have issued their final warning as a result.

Westerly shear is taking it's toll on Lekima. Winds are down to 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. There remains some deep convection over the LLCC, and strong banding. Lekima is heading north, but will soon turn northeast as it becomes directly involved with the mid-lattitude westerlies. The interaction with the westerlies will cause extratropical transition.