Somerset Squall

Priscilla has managed to strengthen to 40kts. Shear is still affecting the cyclone, displacing the majority of the convection southwest of the LLCC. The shear could ease tomorrow, but Priscilla will be heading into an area of dry air, and then cooler water, so significant intensification appears unlikely.

Octave has weakned today as expected, and winds are down to 45kts. Shear has risen, and the LLCC is partially exposed to the southwest of the deep convection. However, Baja California are receiving very heavy rains from Octave, and a tropical storm warning has been issued as Octave is expected to remain intact long enough to provide storm force winds to the coast. Due to the strong shear, Octave should dissipate at landfall.

Nari is nearing landfall on the coast of Vietnam. Intensity has fallen slightly to 80kts due to land interaction and slightly cooler waters just of the coast. The storm should make landfall tonight at about this intensity.

Wipha started an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) last night, and is yet to complete it. Intensity has fallen to 105kts as a result of the cycle. Shear is still low for now, but the EWRC is not expected to complete fully before the shear rises tonight, so re-intensification appears unlikely. Wipha is still a threat to eastern Japan over the next couple of days as it grazes past just to the southeast as it races out of the tropics. A satellite image showing the cloud filled double eyewall:

An area of low pressure to the south-southwest of Tropical Storm Octave and well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become Tropical Storm Priscilla, with winds of 35kts. Priscilla is being sheared, partly to do with it's proximity to Tropical Storm Octave. The LLCC is located on the northeastern edge of an area of very intense convection. Despite the shear, Priscilla should still strengthen at least modestly over the next day or so. In a couple days time, shear will ease as Octave weakens, but Priscilla will be over cooler water by then, causing weakening. A ridge to the east over Mexico will push Priscilla north-northeast over the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is forecast to break down, and weakening Priscilla will be left to veer towards the west in the low level flow whilst it dissipates.

The structure of Octave has changed considerably since this morning. Convection in the bands has completely dissipated, and instead some very deep convection has developed over the LLCC, and formed a ring around an apparent eye feature. Winds have increased to 55kts. Octave has another 12 hours to strengthen, but it may not as dry air is very close to the northwest quadrant. Tomorrow, shear will rise, driving this dry air into the core of Octave. Additionally, sea temps are much cooler on the northward track. Therefore, Octave will dissipate before reaching Baja California.

Nari has remained an 85kt, cat 2 typhoon. Nari is approaching Vietnam and should make landfall in a little over 24hrs time. Heavy rains however, will begin spreading inland tonight.

Wipha has become a category 4 on the SS scale, with winds now at 115kts. A well defined eye persists in satellite imagery, embedded in a solid central dense overcast, flanked by impressive banding. Further strengthening is likely over the next 24hrs or so before shear begins to rise.

Tropical Depression 15E formed overnight, directly south of the southern tip of Baja California. Since, it has strengthened, and become Tropical Storm Octave, with winds of 40kts. The storm has a well defined LLCC, with bands wrapping into the north and south quadrants. There is not a huge amount of covection over the LLCC, but the convection from the bands should rectify this soon. Octave has about another 24 hours over warm water and under low shear. Octave is expected to intensify a little more before shear increases significantly and waters cool along track. This should bring about a swift weakening, and dissipation shortly after. Octave is currently moving to the northwest. A turn to the north then northeast towards Baja California is expected as an upper level low causes a weakness in the steering ridge. As shear and cooler waters await Octave west of Baja California, Octave should not reach here as a tropical storm, or even a tropical depression for that matter, but will increase rainfall here in a few days time.

Wipha has bombed overnight and now has winds of 100kts, making the typhoon a cat 3 on the SS scale. A small, and very well defined eye has popped out of the central dense overcast. With radial outflow, low shear and warm water ahead for the next day or so, Wipha may continue to rapidly intensify. In a couple days time, Wipha will recurve northeast to the southeast of Japan and become extratropical under increased shear and colder water. Wipha will be close enough to eastern Japan do deliver some very stormy weather beyond midweek.

Well inland now, but still well wrapped and intense:

Wipha's impressive satellite signature:

Nari weakened to 80kts crossing Luzon, but has already began to re-intensify, and is now an 85kt cat 2. I think Nari could become a cat 3 again before slamming into Vietnam. There's a good video of Nari's damage to Luzon in this link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/philippines/10374617/Typhoon-Nari-batters-the-Philippines.html

Wipha is now a typhoon, with winds of 65kts. The typhoon retains a central dense overcast and is developing an eye. The potential for rapid strengthening is evident, as the structure, along with the superb outflow, low shear and very warm water supports the potential.

Nari has intensified a little more, to 105kts. Landfall is expected tonight, but the rains are already drenching Luzon.

Wipha has strengthened to 55kts. The storm has an impressive amount of intense convection and very strong banding. With shear remaining low and waters warm, this could become quite and intense typhoon. JTWC are expecting a peak of 110kts.

JTWC have upped the winds to 140kts, making Phailin a cat 5, the first in the basin since 2007. Phailin will probably still be a cat 5 at landfall.

JTWC still underestimating Phailin's intensity IMO. They have Phailin at 135kts, just shy of cat 5. I think this thing attained that title a while ago. JTWC do forecast Phailin to become a cat 5 on the SS scale prior to landfall. As for IMD, they are still doing a terrible job, putting Phailin at 105kts with a central pressure of 955mb! What a joke!

25W has become Tropical Storm Wipha, with winds of 40kts. Wipha continues to organise with some persistant convection building near the centre and multiple bands wrapping towards the LLCC. With low shear, good outflow and warm waters ahead for Wipha, it could become quite an intense typhoon over the next few days.

Nari has intensified further overnight, and is now a 100kt, cat 3 typhoon. The eye is still a little cloud filled on satellite imagery but it is small and well defined. Nari is closing in on Luzon now, spreading torrential rains accross the country already. The dangerous winds will arrive later.

For sure Radiohead, that's going to be the primary threat. Closely followed by the additional flooding rains and very damaging winds.

JTWC have now upped the winds to 125kts, cat 4 on the SS scale. The eye remains well defined. Low shear, radial outflow and high ocean heat content means that Phailin probably has not finished strengthening yet. JTWC were slow on the uptake and lagged behind Phailin's true strength through today. However, India Meteorological Department have handled Phailin very badly in my opinion, and are nothing short of a complete joke. 90kts? Even using the 3 min sustained windspeed (JTWC uses 1 minute), that is a gross underestimation of Phailin's strength. Hopefully they soon recognise this and the people of India can be properly warned. As I said, JTWC were slow but at least they are near the mark now. It is scary because IMD are the official forecasting agency for this basin, not JTWC.

Nari has strengthened further, and is now an 85kt cat 2. Could be knocking on the doors of cat 3 prior to landfall, not good news at all for Luzon. Looks to remain a typhoon throughout the crossing and could become just as strong if not stronger in the South China Sea before ploughing into Vietnam on the westwards track.

This has got to be a cat 4, at least: What a beauty! I just wish it wasn't where it was. The rapid intensification of this thing has been incredible.

Nari has become a typhoon, and winds are currently at 75kts, cat 1 on the SS scale. The storm has had a fleeting eye but it currently cloud filled. Heavy rains have begun to spread onto the east coast of Luzon as Nari edges nearer. Further intensification is expected prior to landfall, which is forecast to occur in just under 24hrs time.