Somerset Squall

Fitow has strengthened to 80kts. Fitow will likely become a cat 2 or even a cat 3 on the SS scale before the typhoon moves over cooler water near the Chinese coast.

23W has strengthened to 35kts, and has become Tropical Storm Danas. Danas has tighter wrapped convection about the LLCC. Further intensification is expected over the next few days.

Rain was very heavy for a time but seems to have cleared north now. Lightning still flashing away, think it will for some time until the storm moves much further north.

Wow the rain is so loud!! Lightning and thunder seems to have become less frequent however.

Yeah, it's very near now, thunder quite loud. No rain as yet but it looks like that will change very soon. EDIT: Pouring down now

Lightning quite frequent to my south, thunder getting louder. Some very bright echoes moving up to my location on the radar.

Getting closer, lightning quite frequent. Some very bright echoes moving into South Somerset on radar.

Had a couple flashes to my south now, fairly loud crack of thunder just this second too

So we have Karen! Winds are at 55kts presently. The convection looked very impressive this afternoon, but shear is already taking it's toll on Karen this evening, as the LLCC is exposed to view as the convection has been sheared eastwards. NHC forecast some modest intensification to hurricane status as Karen moves further into the Gulf Of Mexico (GOM), and with the dry air over the western GOM and the less than ideal uppper level winds, modest intensification might well be all Karen can muster. Landfall is still open to question, but Karen could well be a significant tropical storm at least at landfall so it needs watching.

Fitow has become a typhoon, with winds now at 65kts. The typhoon has developed a large eye, flanked by excellent banding. The northern bands of Fitow are already bringing heavy rains to Okinawa, where they are likely to persist for several days as the typhoon passes close to the southwest. Fitow is still moving north but should turn northwest towards China as ridging builds to the north over South Korea. The timing of this turn is still a little uncertain. As shear remains low and waters warm over the next day or so, Fitow should intensify further. As Fitow approaches China, sea temperatures cool. At the same time, shear is expected to rise, so Fitow will weaken prior to landfall, currently progged to occur in 3-4 days time.

Tropical Depression 23W has formed, over 200 nautical miles east-northeast of Guam. 23W is a small tropical depression with winds of 30kts, and some deep convection over the LLCC with limited banding. 23W is moving west, north of Guam, along the south side of a ridge to the north. The depression will approach a weakness in the ridge in a day or so, and turn towards the northwest towards Okinawa. 23W is expected to intensify over the next several days as shear remains low and waters warm, and 23W is expected to be a typhoon in the vicinity of Okinawa. The exact track is uncertain, but after crossing or moving very near to Okinawa, 23W is expected to push north towards South Korea.

Fitow intensified to 60kts overnight last night, but has failed to get any stronger, for now. Some dry air is wrapping into the western side of Fitow, disrupting development. Fitow should overcome this and become a typhoon tomorrow. The northward track looks likely to continue over the next day or so, and as Coast's post describes, this takes Fitow very near Okinawa. The track forecast has shifted west since I last posted, as ridging is expected to build more strongly north of Fitow. Models are in a fair amount of disagreement on this however. The latest JTWC track has Fitow moving northwestwards and making landfall in China instead of the northward track towards South Korea. Increasing shear and cooler sea temps should weaken Fitow prior to landfall.

Sepat has become extratropical east of Japan, and the last advisory has been issued.

Wrong thread Coast lol

Jerry has remained practically motionless all day as steering currents have collapsed. Instead of moving west, Jerry has stalled and appears to be awaiting the second trough to pick it up and send it northeastwards. Shear and dry air continue to negatively affect Jerry, causing the storm to weaken to 40kts. Convection is pretty shallow, and not all that well organised. Shear and dry air is set to continue to dampen any strengthening over the next few days, until shear rises yet further as Jerry approaches the Azores, causing a more definite weakening trend.

Fitow has slowly strengthened to 50kts. The storm has spiral banding features and plenty of deep convection. Fitow is expected to become a typhoon soon as it tracks northwards on the west side of a ridge to the east. This ridge is now forecasted to extend northwards towards Japan, keeping Fitow on a northward track throughout the next 5 days, perhaps with a slight westwards tendancy. After peaking at cat 3 status on SS scale, JTWC forecast Fitow to begin to transition into an extratropical cyclone south of South Korea as sea temps decline and shear rises on approach to the country.

Sepat has remained a weak tropical storm with meager convection. The storm has been moving north through the day and will swing northeast very soon and begin extratropical transition.

Jerry has strengthened to 45kts overnight. The storm developed banding features, and though convection was quite shallow, Jerry's structure was certainly improved from earlier. Since, the convection has decreased further, and Jerry looks quite dishevelled this morning. Dry air and shear continue to be a problem, and this should not allow much more intensification, if any, unless the upper level low moves away. Jerry has slowed considerably overnight, and should reverse course to a westward track through today, then curve northeast in a couple days ahead of a trough.

September's rain slightly above average January: 95.2mm (above average)February: 43.1mm (below average)March: 55.9mm (average) April: 27.3mm (well below average) May: 57.4mm (above average) June: 28.0mm (well below average) July: 71.7mm (well above average) August: 58.3mm (average) September: 69.9mm (slightly above average) 2013 so far: 506.8mm (very near average)

Sepat remains a 35kt tropical storm according to JMA, and a 30kt depression according to JTWC. Whatever Sepat is, it's largely convectionless. Shear remains high due to an upper level low impinging on the system. This low will move away from Sepat, lessening the shear and improving the outflow as Sepat moves north. However, at this time Sepat will be moving over colder water. Therefore, Sepat is unlikely to strengthen much if at all over the coming 36hrs, before extratropical transition begins east of Japan as Sepat races northeast out of the tropics

Tropical Depression 22W is now Tropical Storm Fitow, with winds of 35kts according to JMA. The storm has developed banding features and some deeper convection over the LLCC. Fitow could become quite intense as the conditions ahead look very supportive for intensification.

We are Coast, I've asked Pete to merge them when he's next back on LOL

11L is still a tropical depression this morning. Whilst there is a large convective blow up this morning, convection has not been persistant and has waxed and waned through it's lifetime so far. The depression is travelling east as a trough passes by to the northwest. As the trough moves away, and brief ridge is forecast to strengthen to the north of 11L, looping the depression back to the west. A second trough is then expected to move to the northwest, and this trough is expected to capture 11L and send it northeastwards. Shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels over the next day or so, but this shouldn't be enough to stop 11L from becoming a sheared tropical storm.

Wutip has weakened to 75kts, but has restrengthened unfortunately right before landfall. Intensity is back up to 90kts as the eye has cleared out again and become better defined. The typhoon is now making landfall, evidenced by this recent satellite image of the eye nearing the coast. Heavy rains will continue for several days I would imagine as Wutip slowly decays as it moves inland, but the damaging winds should ease through the day and tomorrow.

Sepat is classified as a 35kt tropical storm by JMA, but if it is a tropical storm, it's certainly a sheared one. An upper level low is almost completely exposing the LLCC to view from the meager convection. JMA forecast Sepat to maintain 35kt intensity wheras JTWC does forecast some modest intensification to 40kts as poleward outflow briefly improves in initial exposure to the upper level westerlies (ULW). Eventually, the ULW will cause Sepat to start extratropical transition southeast of Japan, in about 36hrs time.