Somerset Squall

A south-southeasterly moving tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific is certainly unusual! It's been an interesting little cyclone to track.

Both JTWC and Fiji Met have decared June below TC strength this morning, and the system is well on the way to becoming extratropical.

The front has stalled here for now and widened. 18.0mm so far today and rising.

This track map shows this system has certainly been an erratic tracker!

Deliwe has dissipated over the Mozambique Channel. Regeneration is not expected due to persistantly strong shear.

June has peaked at 40kts but has since been impacted by shear. This has caused the majority of convection to be sheared south of the LLCC through today. Shear is not expected to let up, so June should begin to weaken soon, and then begin extratropical transition as it slips south. Heavy rains will continue for a while for New Caledonia but should then ease as June moves away towards New Zealand.

The first tropical storm of the 2014 West Pacific season has formed close to and just east of the Southern Philippines. The precursor to this storm's formation has dumped some very heavy rains over the southern Philippines, causing flooding here. Winds are currently at 35kts. Lingling is trapped in a weak steering environment and is currently heading on an unusual track southeast. The storm is expected to turn southwest and make landfall within the next 24 hours. The LLCC has already become exposed from the convection due to shear, so Lingling shouldn't become any stronger prior to landfall. This is not necessarily an early start to the season. Weak January tropical storms and depressions are fairly common in this basin, particularly at low latitude.

Yep, it certainly looks like New Zealand are in for a battering from June long range!

Strong shear has really knocked Deliwe for six today. Convection has been sheared away from an increasingly disorganised LLCC. Winds have dropped to 40kts according to JTWC. MeteoFrance however, have already downgraded Deliwe to a tropical depression. Either way, it doesn't look like Deliwe will prosper, as shear is not expected to ease.

Deliwe has strengthened to 45kts. The storm has developed a small central dense overcast but with limited banding. Strong poleward outflow will be countered by increasing shear from now, so JTWC do not forecast any further intensity gains, and forecast weakening once Deliwe makes the northwestward turn as the poleward outflow is expected to diminish at this point.

The second tropicl cyclone of the South Pacific season has formed just north of New Caledonia. Winds are at 35kts. June is expected to mover over New Caledonia over the next day or two, delivering heavy rains and high winds here. Strengthening is also expected, as shear is expected to remain low, and outflow is good. June already has deep, centralised convection and good formative banding features, indicative of a healthy storm. The cyclone is expected to head generally poleward over the next few days due to ridging to the east.

MeteoFrance have just upgraded the system to "Moderate Tropical Storm Deliwe".

We've had 16.0mm of rain so far today, really not needed here for sure. I find it interesting that Northern Ireland is under a weather warning for showers when, at least currently, the showers down here look much more potent!

JTWC have upgraded a tropical disturbance hugging the west coast of Madagascar to a 35kt tropical cyclone. MeteoFrance are still classifying the system as a tropical disturbance. Over the last couple days, the system has been moving south just inland, and has remarkably organised well despite this. 09S has now moved over the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel, and with low shear and superb outflow, the system has attained TC strength. 09S is forecast to head southwest for the next 36hrs as a steering ridge to the east remains the primary steering influence. A new ridge is then expected to build west of TC 09S, which may allow 09S to turn northwestwards and head towards central Mozambique, a scenario favoured by JTWC. MeteoFrance are forecasting a direct westward turn instead, favouring a landfall in southern Mozambique. A steering shift between two ridges is always difficult to forecast, so there are bound to be some changes in the track forecast. Both JTWC and MeteoFrance do agree that 09S should strengthen at least modestly over the next day or so, particularly as 09S moves away from the west coast of Madagascar, but shear is expected to rise on approach to Mozambique, so the cyclone is not expected to become particularly intense like the other cyclones we have seen to far in the 2013-14 South Indian Ocean season.

Colin is hanging on in there, but the cold waters and high shear of 29 degrees south lattitude are taking their toll. Winds have decreased to 40kts. Colin is maintaining, at least for now, a small area of shallow convection near the LLCC, but this should not continue for long.

Ian's on it's way out. The cyclone is accelerating south-southeast over colder sea temps and increased shear, much like it's brother Colin in the South Indian Ocean. Extratropical transition is imminent.

Colin peaked at 115kts. The cyclone has now weakened to 80kts as it's journey out of the tropics has increased shear over Colin, and cooled sea temps beneath. Extratropical transition should begin soon.

I think the same for the current powerful cyclone named Ian in the South Pacific lol

Indeed Vorticity, the South Indian Ocean does seem to be churning out some very impressive cyclones at the moment, including category 5 Bruce! Colin has literally bombed intensity wise. Winds are up to 115kts, cat 4 on the SS scale. JTWC forecast a peak of 130kts, which is reasonable given the dual outflow channels and low shear. However, it would not be out of the question for Colin to become a category 5 on the SS scale, the environment certainly supports it! We shall see. Just been classified as an "Intense Tropical Cyclone" by MeteoFrance, another one!!

Ian has strengthened a little further, to 125kts. Ian still sports a clear eye this morning. It has probably just about peaked, as it'll be running into cooler waters and higher shear in a little over 12 hours time.

After looking dishevelled for much of the day yesterday due to shear, Colin has become much better organised as shear has dropped off overnight, and outflow has become near radial. Colin is clearly undergoing rapid intensification, as it has developed a solid central dense overcast is already sporting a pinhole eye. JTWC estimate winds of 65kts, but I'd say Colin is already stronger than this, and getting stronger by the hour. When I show you the latest satellite image, you can see why I think this, what a beauty! Colin should intensify further over the next 36hrs, and it seems we are going to get some pretty high wind speeds out of this system. Just as well it is not on course to impact land!

Winds have risen to 120kts, cat 4 on the SS scale. The eye is nice and clear now and is surrounded by intense convection. An impressive little cyclone! Pretty rough on the islands of Tonga right now I would've thought!

Ian lost organisation this afternoon, with the eye no longer visible. However, Ian's eye has emerged again this evening, and the cloud pattern is tightly wrapped again as opposed to the rather shapeless blob of this afternoon. Winds have nudged upwards to 90kts. Ian should strengthen further over the next day or so as the cyclone heads south-southeast.

Moderate Tropical Storm Colin has formed in the central South Indian Ocean, at around 12S, 86E. Winds are at 35kts. The storm is currently under shear, but has managed to organise despite this. Over the coming days, shear should ease, and both MeteoFrance and JTWC indicate strengthening in their forecasts. Colin is forecast to head west-southwestwards along the north side of a ridge to the south. A trough is expected to break down this ridge over the coming days allowing a gradual poleward turn in Colin's track. In the 48-72hr time frame, JTWC forecast rapid strengthening as the trough opens up a poleward outflow channel, before weakening then occurs in around 96hrs time as Colin slips away over cooler waters and into increasing shear associated with the mid-lattitude westerlies. Colin is not a threat to land.

Here at least, it was due to the fact that the first half of December was very dry, then the rest of the month was a total deluge.