Somerset Squall

Peipah has succumbed to the shear, and has weakened to a 25kt tropical depression. Convection is well displaced to the northwest of the entirely exposed LLCC. Shear could ease a little as Peipah approaches the Philippines, but significant re-itensification before landfall appears unlikely, with dissipation expected over the southern islands.

Ivanhoe's winds are now at 45kts. Shallow convection persists near the LLCC as Ivanhoe accelerates to the southeast. Extratropical transition will begin very soon and will probably be complete in around 24hrs

Tropical Depression 15 has been upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Ivanhoe, with winds of 40kts according to JTWC. Ivanhoe has some moderately deep convection over the LLCC, something that has been lacking over the last day. Some moderate banding is also present. The storm is heading quite quickly southeast towards colder water and unfavourable upper level winds, so Ivanhoe only has about another day to strengthen before weakening occurs, followed by extratropical transition.

TD 05W has been under higher than forecast shear over the last couple of days. Nevertheless, it is now Tropical Storm Peipah, the fourth named storm of the season, with winds of 35kts. Easterly shear is displacing the bulk of the convection to the west of the LLCC, and this shear is expected to persist. It shouldn't be strong enough to prevent intensification, but it will slow it. Peipah should be a high end tropical storm on landfall on the Philippines.

JTWC have upgraded the system to Tropical Cyclone 23P, with winds of 35kts. Shear should prevent significant intensification over the next day or so as 23P heads westwards, but should eventually ease, allowing intensification as the system heads westwards towards the Cape York Peninsula.

The fifth tropical depression of the season has formed well to the east of the basin, at around 144E, and only about 2 degrees north of the equator. Intensity is 30kts. Convection is already building nicely over the LLCC, with banding features also evident. Shear is low, and waters warm, which should allow at least steady intensification over the next few days. A west-northwest track is expected, with 05W approaching the Philippines by day 5. It could be a typhoon by this stage, so it needs closely monitoring.

Had a flash of lightning and a loud crack of thunder around 7.15am, followed by a fairly heavy downpour lasting about 15 minutes.

Hellen peaked at 135kts, just shy of cat 5. Hellen has now weakened to 125kts due to land interaction and dry air entrainment. The dangerous cyclone has stubbornly continued southeast, so landfall is now imminent on northwestern Madagascar. Hellen will spend a while over land, before possibly emerging over the Mozambique Channel when the westward turn finally materialises. It is then expected to move across the channel before making a second landfall, this time on the coast of Mozambique. Significant reintensification over the channel appears unlikely due to the presense of moderate shear and dry air at the lattitude Hellen emerges over water.

Hellen has been upgraded to a "Very Intense Tropical Cyclone" by MeteoFrance, with pressure estimated to be at 925mb.

Latest imagery shows Hellen's eye very close to the coast, it'll take a sharp turn west to avoid a landfall at this rate.

Hellen has intensified by 80kts in 24hrs, which can only be described as a bombing cyclone. Winds are now at 130kts, a high end cat 4 on the SS scale. JTWC forecast Hellen to become the second cat 5 of 2014 in the next 12hrs (if this does occur, it will be the third cat 5 in the South Indian Ocean this 2013-14 season, which is an extremely rare occurrence to my knowledge. The others were Bruce and Gillian).

What a beauty! Hellen's eye has become even more defined this morning, and NRL site puts the intensity at 115kts, making Hellen a cat 4 on the SS scale. This suggests that Hellen could peak higher than 120kts of current trends continue. This cyclone has caught both JTWC and MeteoFrance off guard, but particularly MeteoFrance. Initial forecasts from MeteoFrance suggested Hellen wouldn't make it past the "Moderate Tropical Storm" classification, which is for storms with winds between 34 and 47kts!

Hellen is bombing. Winds are now up to 90kts (1 min sustained), and an eye has popped out of the central dense overcast and is clearing out nicely.

JTWC have upped the winds to 60kts in their latest advisory, and now forecast a peak of 95kts, with this intensity beig reached fairly rapidly due to low shear, and continued excellent outflow.

MeteoFrance has upgraded the system to Moderate Tropical Storm Hellen. JTWC have raised the winds to 45kts in their latest advisory. Hellen has well established banding wrapping tightly into the well defined LLC. Hellen is benefitting from an environment of low shear and robust poleward outflow, which should allow further intensification of Hellen as it drifts towards the southeast. Steering currents are very weak, but a slow drift to the west is expected before Hellen can reach the northwest coast of Madagascar. As Hellen moves west, shear is expected to increase, bringing about weakening then dissipation over water.

A tropical depression has formed in the northern Mozambique Channel, off the coast of Mozambique. 14 is in an area of low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow. Banding features are readily taking shape and convection is steadily increasing over the LLCC. As 14 moves southeast away from the coast, it should intensify. Track forecast is uncertain, but a southeastward track followed by bend to the southwest is forecast by MeteoFrance, as steering transfers from a ridge to the north to a developing ridge to the south. Shear could rise further south in the Mozambique Channel, which could initiate weakening in a few days time.

Strong shear has pummelled Gillian all day today and has severely weakened the cyclone. Winds are down to 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. The eye feature has disappeared, and the convection is elongating in a southeastward direction. Shear is currently at about 30kts, which will further weaken Gillian as it moves southwards. There is some uncertainty on the future track, with models split between an eventual westward or eastward heading after 36hrs. If a westward track eventuates, shear may step up to the 40-50kt range as the cyclone's direction moves out of phase with the upper level winds. Either way, at this stage, sea temperatures will also be lower, leading to dissipation of Gillian in a few days, and probably for the final time.

And they have! Winds are now a whopping 140kts according to JTWC, making Gillian the first cat 5 of 2014 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. I never imagined this would've been the outcome, watching Gillian's remnants struggling for so long through the Indonesia portion of the track, and when it looked doomed to stay in the hostile Gulf Of Carpentaria!

Wow, just wow!

One thing to note aswell is Gillian started off so tiny in the Gulf Of Carpentaria a couple weeks ago, now it's huge! It's really done well in the moist environment and warm waters south of Java.

04W peaked at 30kts, but it has been a blink and you miss it system; JTWC issued the last advisory last night as the LLCC weakened significantly over land. Shear, dry air and further land interaction should prevent a comeback.

Gillian's intensity has continued to rocket up, with winds now at 110kts according to JTWC, cat 3 on the SS scale. Gillian has a large eye surrounded by a deep central dense overcast. Gillian is nearing it's peak, but a little more strengthening is possible over the next 12hrs. Thereafter, as Tropicbreeze has stated, shear will increase quite dramatically over Gillian, causing some fairly rapid weakening. So we don't have long to enjoy this system's beauty:

Gillian has been rewarded for battling such a hostile environment for so long, winds are now up to 55kts according to the latest JTWC advisory (though I expect it's now stronger than this), with strong banding wrapping into a central dense overcast feature, from which an eye is emerging. With this structure evident, coupled with low shear and good outflow, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 100kt+ peak with Gillian (1 min average) before weakening occurs. EDIT: BOM have just upgraded Gillian to a "Severe Tropical Cyclone", with winds of 65kts (10 min average).

The fourth tropical depression of this reletively busy and early start to the 2014 West Pacific season has formed just east of the Philippines. Winds are 25kts according to JTWC. There are limited banding features in the northern semicircle of the depression, but the LLCC is ill defined. Some slight strengthening is forecast before 04W drags across the islands of the southern Philippines, causing the depression to lose intensity. Conditions in the South China Sea are pretty hostile, so even if 04W makes it this far it will likely dissipate.

Yep, quite an agressive forecast from JTWC. BOM have re-upgraded Gillian now too, forecasting a peak of 70kts (10-min average). The westward track at the end of the JTWC forecast is interesting, if Gillian hung on without slipping too far south it would make this very interesting system even more so!