Somerset Squall

10P has been given the name Garry this morning by Fiji Met. Intensity remains at 35kts, but Garry seems poised to strengthen soon. Some moderate shear has affected Garry overnight, but this has now eased and outflow has also become much stronger as an anticyclone is building aloft of Garry. Garry has flaring deep convection over the centre, and improving banding features. Garry is moving eastwards quickly but should slow and turn to the southeast soon as the cyclone's steering influence shifts from a ridge to the north to a ridge to the east. Garry is expected to strengthen over the next 4 days before shear rises on the southeasterly track by day 5, inducing weakening.

Tropical Cyclone 10P has formed, about 300 miles west-northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Intensity is 35kts. Convection is slowly expanding over the LLC, but the majority of the cyclone's convection is in a disjointed band north of the centre. Shear is low, and waters warm, so 10P should strengthen over the coming days. 10P is moving eastwards along the south side of an equatorial ridge, but the track should soon bend to the southeast ahead of a trough.

Not too bad then

3 inches. How about you?

Yeah, and it's losing intensity too. Still, can't complain, after today's events

I don't think it'll reach here. It's certainly cold enough. Temp 0.3C and DP -0.4C. It'll prob die a death by the time it inches this far.

Emang did not strengthen beyond 35kts and degenerated into a remnant low yesterday.

A light covering here, and still snowing. Looks like some heavier stuff may be approaching from the southwest.

Still 4.0C here. When are the temperatures supposed to start dropping?

Temp here 4.2C and rising, I guess the temperature has yet to fall away ahead of the front.

Emang has struggled over the last two days. Intensity remains at 35kts. Shear has plagued the cyclone, preventing it from strengthening, and exposing the LLC to view from time to time. Currently, some convection has refired over the LLC, but the convection is not especially deep nor concentrated. Emang is still expected to eventually strengthen, but not until this shear eases. The cyclone does run the risk of degenerating into a remnant low if the shear rises further. Emang is slowly pushing southwestwards currently, but is expected to turn westwards soon as ridging builds to the south.

Narelle almost reached Perth but not quite. High shear and cold sea temperatures have caused Narelle to dissipate just prior to landfall in SW Australia.

Literally 8 years without snow? Have you only recently moved to this part of the world then?

Didn't continue to follow the aftermath of Bopha but it looks like the final death toll was 1,901 people. Dreadful storm

Invest 97S formed 16 days ago in the South Indian Ocean. For these 16 days, the rather stubborn invest has persisted through a rather unfavourable environment, never quite reaching TC status. JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert several days ago, before the shear rose again, preventing 97S from becoming a tropical cyclone. At last, this remarkable system has made it, and is now a 35kt tropical cyclone, located in the central South Indian Ocean. 09S is rather small but has some persistant convection over the LLC, and well defined banding over the southern quadrant. The environment ahead for 09S is generally favourable for strengthening, with moderate shear expected to fall to low levels and sea temps warm along track. As 09S is small, it could strengthen quickly. 09S is expected to head southwards over the next few days and then westwards as a blocking ridge forms to the south. Track from MeteoFrance, which demonstrates nicely the meandering of the cyclone's invest phase:

115kts ended up being Narelle's peak. The cyclone has been steadily weakening through today, and winds are down to 90kts. The eye is being eroded by shear and is losing definition. Cooling along track sea temps are reducing the depth of convection around the eye also. Conditions will only get worse as Narelle slips south over the coming days, so quicker weakening may occur over the next day or two.

Narelle is looking pretty impressive at the moment, winds are up to 115kts (cat 4 on SS scale):

Not sure offhand Styx, can look into it when I have more time. Narelle is strengthening still. Winds are up to 110kts, high end cat 3 on the SS scale. Narelle has about another 18hrs to strengthen before shear begins to rise and sea temps cool on the forecast track. The eye is clearing out and becoming much better defined; I think Narelle may peak at 120-130kts before she's done.

Narelle has strengthened to 90kts, making it a cat 2 on the SS scale. Narelle retains a solid central dense overcast flanked by banding. Further intensification is expected as Narelle heads southwest to south-southwestwards over the next few days. Communities west of Onslow, including Exmouth and Learmonth, need to prepare for damaging winds and heavy rains. If the current track verifies then it looks like Narelle could drench much of Western Australia.

Narelle has continued to strengthen overnight and has been upgraded to a Severe Tropical Cyclone by BOM. Sustained winds are now at 65kts. Narelle maintains a solid central dense overcast with a developing eye. Further quick intensification is expected in the favourable environment.

The cyclone got named Narelle overnight. Narelle is strengthening nicely, and now has sutained winds of 45kts according to JTWC, and 55kts according to BOM. Narelle has an impressive central dense overcast which continues to expand. With low shear, excellent outflow and warm sea temps expected to persist, Narelle should strengthen quickly over the coming days. JTWC now plumping for a peak of 130kts, so it looks like Narelle is going to become a monster. Current track forecast has changed little, and areas west of Karratha are most at risk from impact currently. The future track of Narelle is far from nailed on however.

Sonamu has battled through dry air and shear, weakening to a tropical depression yesterday, but has made a comeback this morning, and is once more a 35kt tropical storm. The storm is moving southwards but is expected to move east and then make landfall in central Borneo in a few days time. I may be wrong, but I think this is an extremely rare occurence for a tropical storm to make landfall on Borneo, particularly from the west. Sonamu should maintain intensity for the next day or so under moderate shear but increasing sea temps. Weakening should occur before landfall as the circulation begins to interact with Borneo prior to landfall.

Tropical Cyclone 08S has formed, 700 miles north-northeast of Learmonth, Australia, and a few hundred miles north-northwest of Broome. 08S has some deep, persistant convection over the LLC which has prompted JTWC to upgrade to a 35kt TC. The cyclone should soon get a name from BOM. The environment ahead looks conducive to allow 08S to become a potent cyclone over the next few days. In fact, JTWC are forecasting 08S to reach an intensity of 125kts in around 4 days time, which is very aggressive for a first forecast. BOM are also very bullish in their intensity forecast too. 08S is forecast to move southwestwards over the next few days along the northwestern periphery of a ridge to the southeast, over mainland Australia. A turn to the south is expected as the ridge weakens in response to a trough. However, the timing of this turn, if it even occurs, is highly uncertain, but extremely important to the coast of NW Australia. The later the turn, the more of the coast is spared from a potentially very damaging storm. Current JTWC track (subject to change due to wide model spread in the 3-5 day time period):

Sonamu peaked at 45kts and has now started to weaken as dry air and shear affects the storm. Winds have fallen to 40kts. Convection is being sheared west of the partially exposed LLC, and the environment is set to be pretty hostile for Sonamu over the next few days. Therefore further weakening is expected as Sonamu heads to the southwest. The cyclone is expected to turn south before reaching the Malay Peninsula, as the low level steering flow is northerly.

Sonamu has strengthened to 45kts. The storm has an impressive blow up of convection over the LLC, but little significant banding. Sonamu could strengthen a little more before a northeasterly surge over the South China Sea increases shear over Sonamu. Sonamu is likely to eventually make landfall on the Malay Peninsula, but should be a weak tropical depression at this stage.