Somerset Squall

Rusty looking very impressive now, winds up to 45kts currently. The environmental conditions scream rapid intensification, and Rusty seems to be consolidating pretty quickly over the last 6 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty has formed, about 225 nautical miles north of Port Hedland, NW Australia. Rusty is a large storm, which has struggled to consolidate through it's time as an invest for this reason. However, convection is now concentrating nicely near the LLC which is tightening all the time. Deep convective bands surround the LLC. Rusty is forecast to move southwards to south-southeastwards over the next few days to a landfall near or just east of Port Hedland. It's important not to focus on the exact track for Rusty as it is such a large system and it's effects will be felt several hundred miles east and west of the landfall point. Intensification is expected, and it could be fairly rapid as shear is low, moisture is plentiful and sea temps are a very steamy 33C. JTWC expect a peak of 85kts before landfall, and BOM are going slightly higher at 90kts, which is interesting as JTWC use a 1 min sustained wind measurement and BOM use a 10 min sustained, which naturally should be a little lower. Massive rainfall amounts are expected for large swathes of the Pilbara coastline, and a significant storm surge is likely just east of the landfall point. Damaging winds are also a concern, particularly in the Port Hedland region. One to watch! The Australian season has finally awoken from it's slumber!

Haruna has crossed Madagascar and emerged over water to the southeast of the country. Land interaction has weakened Haruna to 45kts, down from the 100kt peak. Convection is rebuilding near the LLC as Haruna is now over water. Haruna is forecast to maintain intensity over the next 24-36hrs as good outflow offsets moderate shear and marginally warm sea temps of 26C. Haruna will then encounter stronger shear and cooler water on the eastward track, causing the cyclone to dissipate beyond 48hrs.

Haruna has attained cat 3 status on the SS scale, with sustained winds now at 100kts. Haruna retains a very large eye, which is not far off the coast of Madagascar currently.

Haruna has rapidly intensified overnight, and sustained winds are now at 95kts, the upper reaches of cat 2 on the SS scale. The cyclone retains a well defined and very large eye surrounded by symmetrical banding. Haruna has started the eastward turn and is closing in on landfall, but should strengthen a little more today.

Haruna has strengthened quickly today, and sustained winds are now at 70kts, cat 1 on the SS scale. Banding remains impressive around a solid central dense overcast encompassing a very large eye. Haruna has moved little over the last 12hrs, trapped in a weak steering environment. Haruna should begin the southeasterly motion towards SW Madagascar tomorrow as ridging builds to the northeast. Haruna should continue to strengthen up until landfall. Haruna is only expected to briefly cross land before emerging south of Madagascar. However, waters to the south of Madagascar are pretty cool at the moment, so Haruna is likely to begin extratropical transition as it clears southern Madagascar.

02W remains a weak 25kt tropical depression. Shear has risen and is keeping the LLC ill defined and causing the convection to become increasingly disorganised. As the depression tracks further into the South China Sea, it will dissipate as the environment gets even more hostile.

Haruna is strengthening. Sustained winds are up at 45kts currently. Haruna has some deep convection near the LLC and very strong banding features. Haruna will continue to strengthen as it heads towards the south then southeast on the southwest side of a ridge northeast of Madagascar. Landfall is still expected in the southwest corner of Madagascar in a few days time.

A tropical depression has formed over the southern Philippines overnight. Sustained winds are at 25kts currently. The LLC is not very well defined but does have some persistant convection covering it. Land interaction is hindering development currently, but the upper level environment is favourable with low shear and good outflow. As 02W tracks over the Sulu Sea, it may briefly attain tropical storm status as land interaction ceases, but as 02W moves into the South China Sea, a northeasterly cold surge will increase shear over the system and cause it to dissipate.

A tropical cyclone has formed in the Mozambique Channel this morning. Forecast to move southeastwards whilst intensifying, and strike southwest Madagascar in a few days time.

Gino is being destroyed by shear currently. Intensity has fallen to 45kts. Convection is being sheared to the southeast of the increasingly distorted LLC. Extratropical transition should occur soon as cool waters join the shear.

Gino has started to weaken. The eye is less organised than earlier today, though the central convection remains deep. Sustained winds have lowered slightly to 85kts, still cat 2. Further weakening is anticipated.

Gino continues to strengthen. Sustained winds are now at 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. Convection continues to be deep surrounding the ragged eye. Banding features also remain impressive. Gino could strengthen a little more as it heads to the south, but time is running out as the cyclone will soon be over cooler water.

Gino has strengthened rapidly over the last 24 hours. Intensity has rocketed up to 70kts, cat 1 on the SS scale. A central dense overcast continued to build through yesterday, flanked by strong banding. Recently, an eye has formed. The rapid intensification is a result of a highly favourable upper level environment characterised by very low shear and excellent radial outflow. Sea temps and low level convergence have also supported the intensification. Further strengthening is expected, and it is possible that further rapid strengthening could occur, though intensity changes are hard to predict.

Now been named Gino by MeteoFrance.

Temp down at 1.9C here now but the precipitation seems to be slowing down. I wonder if it will actually reach here.

Yeah a pretty keen breeze is developing here which seems to be dragging the temperature down. I don't expect much but we might get lucky and see a few flakes

Temperature falling away here, was 3.4C but now 2.3C with the precipitation edging ever nearer. Would be a pleasant surprise if we got something out of this.

Tropical Cyclone 15S has formed 650 miles east-southeast of Diego Garcia and is located in the central South Indian Ocean. Intensity is 35kts. 15S has improving central convection and pronounced banding features wrapping from the southern quadrant of the cyclone into the western quadrant. 15S is in an environment of low shear, warm sea temps and excellent outflow in both poleward and equatorward directions. This environment is conducive to some quick intensification over the next 72hrs before 15S encounters cooler water and increasing shear. 15S is moving towards the southwest along the northwestern side of a ridge to the southeast. The cyclone will turn to the south soon then the southeast as it rounds the western side of the ridge. 15S is of no threat to land.

Haley has degenerated into a remnant low this morning. The LLC is elongating under increased shear, and cool sea temps and dry air have completely dissipated the remaining shallow convection from last night. Regeneration is not expected.

Haley's LLC remains well defined this evening, but convection has reduced dramatically, leaving it exposed to view. Haley will weaken further tonight and tomorrow as sea temps continue to decline along track, and shear also rises.

Tropical Cyclone Haley has formed in the South Pacific, ending the week long lull in tropical cyclone activity worldwide. Haley is located roughly 300 miles west of Bora Bora, Society Islands, and is at about 22° S. Because of Haley's high lattitude, the cyclone doesn't have long to strengthen as cooler water is not far away on the southeastwards track. Intensity is 45kts currently, and Haley has a small central dense overcast feature obscuring a tightly wound LLC. The small size of Haley will mean it should succumb quickly to the negative effects of increasing shear and cooler sea temps, both of which could impact Haley from as early as tonight.

Felleng continues to quickly move southeastwards and has almost finished the transition to an extratropical storm. JTWC have issued their last advisory.

January drier than the two preceeding months (though that wasn't difficult as they both were in the region of 150mm), but still wetter than average. January: 95.2mm 2013 so far: 95.2mm

Felleng peaked at 115kts, cat 4 on the SS scale, shortly after I last posted. Felleng only held that intensity for 6 hours as shear increased as caused Felleng to weaken. Intensity has been in decline ever since, and is now at 70kts. For now, waters are warm, but as Felleng continues to slip southwards, cooler sea surface temperatures will join shear in weakening Felleng at a quicker pace.