Buriedundersnow

could someone plz tell me what happened to the pv setting up shop in eastern siberia?

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/gif_archive.html

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=1

i dont get this place evryone was saying how we need a greenland high for extended cold and now the gfs is showing height rises around greenland and with further upgrades a link to scandi and now nobody wants know

hopefully they upgrades can keep coming as if we get a greenland high form if part of the pv is predicted to come this way might this force it towards us like in winter 10/11 oooops just noticed one of them is the UKMO lol thought they were both GFS just different runs lol

his posts related to when the pv moves to siberia which it is in the process of doing so realistically his thoughts still stand till after then till we see if it is hit or miss and with getting upgrades in that part of the model we should keep our eyes on there.

the one part of the model run to run that we have seen upgrades is that part between greenland and scandi. would really like to hear from gp if his thoughts then still stand now.

if u look at his post it is dated the sixth he then shows a hiehgt anomoly chart for 10 days that would make it this sunday now look at the models and around sunday we start to see hieghts in greenland and scandi try to link now who says without upgrades between now and then it wont happen maybe gp might just be right here was ment to say with upgrades

Posted by Glacier Point on 06 December 2012 - 08:47 in Model Forum Archive As if NWP didn't have enough on its plate with the disturbance to the PV, MJO forecasts consolidating on a phase 2 projection. That will expose the GFS in particular (it has a large bias to tropical convection in the longer range) to greater pressure to turn the jet northward over Iberia. This will be a false bias given that the GWO is in phase 8/1 - and this is the superior measure. That lobe of the pv cut off over NE Siberia also rolling around like the preverbial loose cannon. GEFS H5 day 10 a reasonable depiction however (huge snow potential btw): Substantive ridge between Greenland / Iceland / Svalbard. Tonight's CPC 8-14 dayer will pretty much look like this. That will keep the jet well to the south and only when the ridge pulls fsr enough west will it be able to come up from the south. Always the risk however of shortwaves, but these likely to maintain our cold pool in situ by advecting the cold air westwards. Stick with your ensemble means!! he then posted this the following day notice where he says the gefs has a large bias to tropical convection in the longer range i'm assuming he means the gefs wants to power up the atlantic more than it should be

Posted by Glacier Point on 05 December 2012 - 11:38 in Model Forum Archive To add to the positively cold vibe going on.... The trend for vortex shift towards Siberia gathers apace. This should assist in retrogressing the ridge over Scandinavia towards Greenland in the extended range. GEFS mean hight anomalies depicting an amplification of the North Pacific ridge which teleconnects to height rises over southern Greenland. The only complicating factor remains the modelling of a cut off section of the pv over NE Siberia and its movement across the North Pacific. this is what he posted about the pv moving to siberia and the hieghts moving to greenland the last sentence i dont understand but we r starting to see link up between scandi and greenland in the model output and maybe it will upgrade

thanks for the help paul

how do u do that without having to troll through loads of different threads

could one of the mods plz tell me if gp had posted that about when the pv moves to siberia

i'm not sure with this but maybe the more knowledgable or one of the mods can help me out here. i'm sure i read i one of gp's post (i'm sure it was him anyway) that once the pv has moved to siberia it would encourage the russian scandi high to move toward greenland. plz can someone tell me if i am right there, now with previous runs constantly showing less shortwave energy heading north between greenland and scandi and in latest runs starting to show some sign of linking between hieghts in russia scandi if they keep upgrading once they link could the russian high be pulled over toward greenland and set up there. if i am wrong on this i am sorry but i could swear i heard gp say that somewhere.

cheers nick thats what i was stuck on where it shows what direction. well atleast thats a slight positive sign hopefully more will trend that way.

if u look at the GFS 06z and the 12z then there is some attempt to link hieghts between the russian high and greenland from sunday onwards and in the way the runs have played out since yesterday i have noticed run by run less shortwave energy trying to make it between scandi and greenland so that link up might come if runs keep upgrading in that area

could u plz explain that chart dont know what i'm supposed to be looking at

u dont know we wont get snow it will end up being the case we see two easterlys and they dont come off n whats the bet we will get an easterly from something that doesnt look like giving one but does

i should have said lengthy cold spell lol

dec 10 was very rare but it still came off anything can happen especially in a changing climate system like we have just now

i'm not gonna bother about out to FI concentrate on the next 4 or 5 days and hope we keep seeing upgrades

u thinking something like this on the right and let the trough move into the continent

really positive to see small upgrades in the short term hopefully they keep coming with every run and maybe the rest will take care of itself

hopefully we scots see the cold next week

18z http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121211/18/126/h850t850eu.png 12z http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121211/12/132/h850t850eu.png less shortwave energy going up the east of greenland and better hieghts to the north