Buriedundersnow

would the mods mind if i was to put a post in here it is a bit off topic but i have been looking through things and it might be something that will give people hope of a cold spell coming soon

could someone -plz tell me last winter when the block finally affected our weather in some way in february was it in early feb or later i cant remember the right time period.

whats your solution

definate step up compared to the 12z. is there any chance with a few more upgrades things could be brought forward a little more and if we do see upgrades has it just been the case of the models having something they had trouble working through.

u may have a point there

joe laminate floori just tweeted that european winter to be coldest since 62/63 so there must ne something being seen joe b

i posted in the other thread that i think it might be down to solar activity as last year saw an increase in solar activity and the block stayed away and didnt get all the way here as the atlantic held it back and the same this year we have seen an increase in solar activity lately which has only just subsided and again the block is missing us as the atlantic is holding it back cant be a coincidence because solar activity stay low the whole of 09/10 and 10/11 and we got blocking now i'm not saying winter is over as the sun has gone quiet again it was only a brief increase in activity but that might be what has held this back from happening and we might see blocking start to affect us soon now the sun has gone quiet again. does anyone else think this may be a cause.

because thats where they say trends start like it always showing cold in FI then it should mean a cold outcome rather than a mild one or atleast favour one.

can someone tell me why has it gone so mental in here today

is it not a case lately that after all the fantastic model runs that we seen we were always going to go backwards with what the models would show and now we have had the downgrades all we can hope for is in the coming days we will start to see some upgrades to take us to more of a middle ground between the great runs we have been seeing and what we r getting just now

bbc weather just said there expecting an easterly next week so they must think the models are right!

is it just me or do the 850 temps not look right should they not be wrapped round the high in russia putting more of that area in lower upper temps

i'm in scotland all be it at low levels but its raining here and not seen a single flake all morning

thank god the weather reports have changed from then and we can now see if the showers have a chance of hitting us or not.

now we have all three models in agreement can someone say if they know which model is better at showing what might happen when they have all got there ideas sorted out and know the pattern

there just covering themselves incase it doesnt happen

do we not need the GFS to get the undercut earlier

was the UKMO not just showing the undercut

thanks lorenzo i will have a look through those links and see what i can learn

could u plz explain for us that dont understand these charts where on this is best for cold and snow and where is worst for cold and snow thanks

i posted this yesterday but everyone was so busy with the great model runs we were getting but if there is anyone who understands marginal snow events on here could they maybe let me know if my thoughts are correct or am i barking up the wrong tree was just wondering as been noticing lately the way snowfall keeps getting upgraded or under forecast

with snow threats recently being upgraded all the time does anyone think that the snow tomorrow might be far more widespread with the upper temps being forecast where they have to be

thanks northernrab i understand now was just worrying there we were only gonna have a few days of easterlys then it breaks down but that puts my mind at rest thanks.

the last atleast 3 runs i'm sure its 4 though on GFS have showed the easterly get in then it seems to break down at the end

just came on and checked the charts now thats 4 runs in a row now on the GFS where the atlantic has over powered the block do we take that as a trend meaning we will only get a short lived cold spell or is the GFS just ramping up the atlantic at the end cos thats how its been programmed to expect the atlantic to come through