Buriedundersnow

just woke up and checked the charts and the UKMO and the BOM look the best charts of the morning i like how they link the atlantic ridge with the high to our north surely the best result would be for they highs to link up and the atlantic and push it north up to greenland

would it be better or worse if at 144 that atlantic high slipped up through to greenland

i'd like to see the 7 day ones looks like the gfs was worst didnt pick up the hieghts in the pole as well

regarding the ukmo being consistant lately with bringing the cold spell in i am sure i heard someone on these threads weeks ago saying that the ukmo has recently invested millions of pounds on new computers to better help forecast cold conditions now if i am right and i did see that in another thread would that not maybe explain the fact why the ukmo is so consistant now compared to other models

thanks frosty. one other question is i've been watching the thread over the past while to see what people are saying about the upcoming cold spell why does everyone seem to not want to count the bom model when it has been quite constant in bringing in the cold where other models seem to be all over the place but when i read things about the met office saying the cold spell is on the way and looks like it could possibly last for atleast a few weeks surely the bom has been the model that has shown better over this past while when other models are really struggleing might it be the case that the bom has things right while other models are getting a bit over eager with the little things

does anyone think with that low pressure coming north over us today is there any chance that it could turn to snow over scotland on its northern edge before turning back to rain or will any wintry stuff just be over high ground cos its baltic up here the day and will only get colder now as the day goes on

just came on and checked the charts and is it just me or is the gfs maybe coming up with a solution as both the last 2 runs were very similar to each other

i have been thinking the same how can different runs be less or more reliable surely they will be as reliable as each other when its the same computer or that doing the calculations on all the runs

could that high in the middle of the atlantic not progress north into greenland and then set up with the scandi high to block right across from greenland to scandi and give us an easterly

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/htgcomp.html still alot of blocking being forecast

thats the first one i have seen for about 4 weeks prob the mild spell brought it out. cant be that much bad luck i killed loads last year and quite a few this year and not had any bad luck yet (tapping the coffee table)

i just had to kill a big spider running accross my floor is that a good sign or bad one for a cold winter as i was thinkin its a bit late for spiders

thanks lorenzo will have a look through they threads

thanks lorenzo the first thing i wanted to know is if someone could look back the archive to see if there is a coleration between low solar activity and snow cover in scandi giving us a colder winter as last year there was no snow in scandi at this point and we got mild winter but 2010 there was snow cover and we had cold winter and this year they are predicting cold and there snow cover in scandi so does that colerate with other winters with low solar activity. second point is i have notice that 2010 and this year if it comes off the start wave breaking and heating is forecast to happen soon and will be around the same period as 2010 now i use spaceweather.com to keep an eye on solar activity and i have notice at both points in 2010 and this year a slight spike in solar sunspot activity not so much in 2010 as this year but 2010 was a really low year for solar activity compared to this year but can these spikes be in some way putting extra energy into the strat that is helping for the wave to break and then on for the strat to heat which causes us to develop blocking. hope that isnt too much to be asking.

the problem is i dont know what thread its a little to do with a few things some of it is the strat some is snow cover and some solar activity but its a few things i have picked up on which might mean us getting cold weather or not. dont know how to pm only signed up last night, thanks for the welcome phil

i think it might be i have spotted a few things but need some help to see if my thoughts could be right or not just a few things really similar to 2010 but i dont have enough knowledge to know for sure just yet

is there anybody on here with knowledge and access to archive data that could awnser a couple of questions for me for things i have spotted

could i post in here and get your thoughts just dont know if this is the right thread or not.

i'm quite new here is there anybody on this site that i could put a couple of things across to and maybe have them look through past data to see if there is anything to what thoughts i have in my head

the thing that i see is 2010 snow in scandanavia we get cold spell no snow there in 2011 we get mild winter then snow there again this year so surely its a sign we will get blocking we just didnt get it last year when europe did cos no snow in scandanavia to aid pressure building so looks good for this winter

it says the met office said it they wouldnt put it in the media if they werent sure

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=10563

daily star sunday reporting that the met office has already briefed the goverment and roads agencies to be ready for a cold and below average winter and the cold is likely to start from end of this month

thanks for the welcome and the explanation chio hopefully i will start to learn some stuff in the coming weeks lol

hi there i'm newish here been reading the forums for the past few weeks but only just decided to sign up. i have heard many of you talkin about no strat warming the thin i wanted to know was for the polar vortex to split do u need to have the warming strat or can the vortex split without the strat warming.