Mucka

GFS 00z out to the mid term seems every bit as good the 18z in Eastward shift of the arctic trough. The contrast with ECM 12z is already stark. GFS00z V ECM12z

A very Merry Xmas and a snowy New Year, if only!

Billy threw back the curtains to be greeted by a Christmas morning as bright and sparkling as his mood. This was going to be the best Christmas ever!

GFS has slowly dropped the development of this low on ECM and UKMO below. Here is GFS over the same period (Eyes left) That is helping clear residual vortex energy E rather than the ECM solution, UKMO is somewhere between. It is only now 90h away so tomorrow mornings output could be quite revealing in that regard.

Looking at ECM ensembles clusters and means the ECM Op is an unlikely outcome. Less than 10% of ensemble members go for anything close. Just as pointed out earlier, It is too far W against the mean position of the trough and too far N although that is somewhat mitigated by the trough being held back. Look how far it deviates from the mean by day 10.

I'm not going to say the ECM is flat out wrong but the way it has the Atlantic trough so far W 144 through 168 is at odds with all the other output. The contrast by 168 to our W and NW by 168 is obvious. ECM GFS GEM UKMO Given the discrepancy is large and notable within 144h then I would say ECM is not worth over analysing for now. If it is repeated tomorrow morning that would be more of a worry. Let's see how it looks when compared with the ensemble mean 500hPa charts at 168 later this evening.

Obviously any cold snap/spell is still in FI so it is still about the bigger picture for now. We are looking at notable NH changes by around day 10 in the modelling this evening to previous which may be advantageous for getting a more Northerly/colder flow in any cold snap and for potentially getting a cold snap to become more of a spell. We will need to see it repeated on ECM and through tomorrow before becoming too excited about the prospect of potentially deeper cold through the Christmas period though. This is shown on GFS and GEM despite the obvious differences elsewhere. Gone is the raging PV stretched across the NH with a more clean transfer to the E on our side and although not a classic cold blocking pattern the Atlantic has its power supply largely cut off for several days. And so all eyes on tonight's ECM to see if it moves away from this To something more akin to GFS and GEM. If so then we may have some exciting Xmas period charts ahead.

Nothing has changed for me other than the possibility of the high being pinned rather than retrogressing. General theme though is to have the high retrogress and for an Arctic trough to dig SE in the run up to Christmas with likelihood of a cold snap/spell mixed in, no detail possible for Christmas at the moment. Those looking at ECM 10 day charts and presuming doom should consider what would happen next. The scenario above, high moves W/low moves SE ,just delayed. GFS mean has 850 temps below zero for Christmas day which is a start. A cold snap or snaps intermixed with unsettled milder weather looks more likely than a cold spell so we may get lucky on timing if that is the scenario and get a white Christmas. The less likely scenario for Xmas right now is mild or anticyclonic. At least we are in the game for now.

Fair assessment. Certainly ECM and UKMO have too much forcing from the trough to the NW pinning the high and not allowing it to retrogress quickly. ECM 144/168 UKMO 144/168 GFS handles it differently The ECM/UKMO scenario is perhaps more likely on balance as GFS can over simplify things at that range. This was the scenario I painted yesterday where we would have a delay and need to jump more hurdles for any cold but I also said a cold snap/spell was likely in the run up to Christmas so I will stick with that for now. I agree ridging into Greenland could be an issue with toppler scenarios being favourite for now, assuming we can pull high pressure W and get lower pressure into Europe. At least the Euro trough is behaving itself in the main so that is one fly out of the ointment. the next is to avoid that phasing in the Atlantic 144/168, or at least have it less impactful as with GFS.

Big Picture and why cold spell/snap is probable in the run up to Christmas. Don't worry about FI charts or how flat the longwave is at 168, it is about the forcing of the Euro trough and upstream amplification post 168 as we know we will have a UK high with the jet forced over the top out to then, The Euro trough will be a big player and comes prior to any retrogression and Atlantic blocking. GFS has been modelling it to push W and then NW phasing with the Atlantic trough or weakening heights to our W and causing toppler flatter scenarios until this afternoon. Here is GFS 00z handling of the trough, the purple arrows and lines show movement and forcing pattern through the important period 15th to 18th Dec. And below is the 12z over the same period for comparison. And here is UKMO for Dec 17th, note the Euro trough. So long as the Euro trough does not move NW and phase with the upper trough and prevent retrogression of the high we have a good chance because the other alternatives should all lead to at least a cold snap. The rest is down to getting a nice clean transition of the Arctic trough W to E and hoping we don't get any spoilers preventing ridging into Greenland, Even if it phases early as with previous runs and GEM we still have a shot, albeit a delayed one with more potential hurdles and I would say this mornings ECM run was dubious at best. So personally I would favour cold with the caveat that FI longwave patterns even when favourable aren't always a perfect guide to what weather our small Island will receive. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4973846

Big Picture and why cold spell/snap is probable in the run up to Christmas. Don't worry about FI charts or how flat the longwave is at 168, it is about the forcing of the Euro trough and upstream amplification post 168 as we know we will have a UK high with the jet forced over the top out to then, The Euro trough will be a big player and comes prior to any retrogression and Atlantic blocking. GFS has been modelling it to push W and then NW phasing with the Atlantic trough or weakening heights to our W and causing toppler flatter scenarios until this afternoon. Here is GFS 00z handling of the trough, the purple arrows and lines show movement and forcing pattern through the important period 15th to 18th Dec. And below is the 12z over the same period for comparison. And here is UKMO for Dec 17th, note the Euro trough. So long as the Euro trough does not move NW and phase with the upper trough and prevent retrogression of the high we have a good chance because the other alternatives should all lead to at least a cold snap. The rest is down to getting a nice clean transition of the Arctic trough W to E and hoping we don't get any spoilers preventing ridging into Greenland, Even if it phases early as with previous runs and GEM we still have a shot, albeit a delayed one with more potential hurdles and I would say this mornings ECM run was dubious at best. So personally I would favour cold with the caveat that FI longwave patterns even when favourable aren't always a perfect guide to what weather our small Island will receive.

Yup, I was trying to give a heads up for the GFS 12z modelling a Christmas freeze as soon as I saw how it was handling the Euro trough. Guess some people took it the wrong way

Guaranteed cold from 192.

The UK wallows in anomalously warm air, just prior to the "Christmas big freeze"

Rarely do we see such a definitive signal in deepest FI and it has been on the last 2 runs. The fact it is so far out is a double edged sword in that on the one hand it has to be a strong signal to show that far our but on the other hand it is so far out it is very hard to trust. Nevertheless great to see that signal and especially for the Christmas week. Let's hope it remains and becomes something worth chasing in a week or so.

After a cold start to Winter it looks like a warm up is coming for Western/Central/southern Europe as we head toward mid Dec, although there really isn't any mild weather on the cards, just more average Dec fare. Other areas of Europe will hold on to the cold or exceptional cold for a time before temps get closer to average before mid month though likely still a little below. It seems my hope of an Atlantic ridge before mid month was too optimistic and a period of typical Dec weather will be with us through to mid month, perhaps milder for a time in the S but this tempered with wind and rain. The next hope for any resumption of blocking to mid month would be Scandi ridge but this doesn't look too promising based on current output. We had a nice start to Winter and the model watching so a more relaxed week or two is fine before we start the hunt for blocking and cold patterns before Xmas. Hopefully we will see better FI charts again a week or so.

GFS still very progressive with the Westerly regime but given the models now seem to be in agreement a Scandinavian ridge won't come into play in the mid term, then it is all eyes on the Atlantic again to see if we can get a substantial ridge and avoid a W based -NAO. My original thought posted here were that any new blocking would be in the Atlantic sector and not over Scandinavia with the fear being that the Westerlies could win out entirely and we would enter a more sustained zonal spell. The hope was that we could get some favourable developments earlier with the lows disrupting SE against the cold block, and although GFS has proved to be over progressive, that hope now seems to be over. So now, barring a sudden change, our attention shifts back W and just beyond the mid term but certainly not deep FI so still plenty play for on whether we can resume blocking for mid month. UKMO V GFS 144 (GFS extremely progressive but longwave not greatly dissimilar with both showing the trough to N of UK and potential Atlantic ridge behind. Currently GFS, GEM, Icon all show the ridge attempt being overrun, so perhaps in deep FI a Scandi ridge could be the hope from any Atlantic amplification but for now I'll be hoping for upstream improvements and WAA into Greenland. GEM

Oh so you must have missed the deindustrialisation of the west, all those SF6 emitting windfarms and the energy crisis then? Yeah things definitely haven't changed since the millennium. But you are right about one thing, the rich just get richer and the powerful more powerful, maybe you should look into not only why that is but how that process has accelerated since we suddenly became plagued by global crises that demanded global action if you really want change.

My point is the media have been propagandised to push the AGW narrative and one should question why that is. Again, I will need a source for all these max temp records being broken at higher rate than some arbitrary time in the past and that cold temp records are being as well sourced and far fewer. We know the data sets have been compromised, they openly state they have altered data records, they just reason that it is necessary evil to make them compatible with their new methods of recording and manually adjusting recorded temps. Yes tens of thousands and even millions of people can be involved in conspiracy knowingly or unknowingly. Compartmentalisation is a part of it but money and fear are great motivators and if you don't believe that then read a history book, most of history was created by a conspiracy of some form or another we just use other terms. The whole point of creating powerful NGO's and institutions is to influence and usurp national power and sociopathic career politicians are among the cheapest and easiest to buy and influence, just ask Klaus Schwab. There were many conspiracies during the pandemic that involved many thousands of people. How many people were involved in the Lab leak cover up and the various debunked WHO conspiracy theories that it was a natural variant? How many people were involved with the conspiracy to dispense with the long held method for gauging mortality of deadly disease and replacing it with "died (of any cause) within 28 days of a positive test" (Did you ever question why such an anti-scientific and distorting method of gauging mortality of a deadly disease was suddenly the global norm?) How many people were involved with the conspiracy theory that basic face masks prevented Covid infection? How many involved in the conspiracy theory that healthy children were dying from Covid (Not one healthy child died in the UK from Covid, a few every unhealthy children died WITH covid) How many involved in the conspiracy to inflate Covid hospitalisation numbers by testing all new patients and listing them as Covid patients if they had a positive test result even if they were asymptomatic and in with a broken leg? How many involved in the conspiracy theory that the Covid Vaccine was "100% safe and effective?" How many involved in the conspiracy theory that lockdowns were a viable and useful pandemic management tool? I could go on and on and that is just the pandemic. But don't worry about conspiracy theory, can you get behind the idea that the wealthiest and most powerful people in the World who invest fortunes in media and lobbying and more nefarious methods of influence want to not only maintain that wealth and power but increase it? Of course if that were true they would have meetings discussing global policy the public are not privy to and conventions called something like "World Government Summit" and institutions with billionaire donors like the WHO would be making treaties on Global health etc, and institutions like the WEF would be bragging about how many of their people carrying out their "Great Reset" agenda they have in various Governments and those Governments regardless of whether they has a supposedly left wing or right wing Gov would walk in lockstep to various global diktats from Mass immigration to Net Zero and such things would be outlined in UN policy documents and they would have things like global agendas called something like Agenda2021 or Agenda2030. (Hi Justin!) Good job none of that is happening then.

The hockey stick graph is literally the exact opposite of cherry picking. You take a global scale climate reconstruction, and look at the longest possible period you can. What a strange statement. It contradicts reality itself. Earth's life giving climate goes back over 550M+ years, that is your data pool. The Hockey stick graph Cherry picks less than one half millionth of that data It purports to show nearly 1C of sudden warming in just 30 years, 1961 to 1990. Other than the row about leaked emails etc the graph has been debunked by the following 30 years of climate data that show not even 10% of that warming even though Co2 levels are purportedly far higher than then. How do you scientifically explain why warming increased so dramatically and suddenly in 1961 through to 1990 and then declined so dramatically and suddenly post 1990 if manmade Co2 is driving that warming and manmade Co2 is much higher (more than double 1960 levels) post 1990? With China alone pumping out more Co2 than the whole of Europe and US combined post 1990 why hasn't global tempt risen exponentially? We know each year is not hotter than the last because climate temp is far more complex than just how much Co2 exists in the atmosphere. We know it has been much colder with much more Co2, so what other mechanisms are at play that override atmospheric Co2 and why are they being ignored? If we don't cherry pick the data we see other periods of rapid warming (and cooling) and if we increase the scale to sensible levels then the hockey stick gets lost in the noise of perpetual climate change.

Well climate change is quite different from Anthropogenic Global Warming. Climate change is unintuitively a constant and existed before man and will exist long after man. (hopefully) If you are using the term Climate Change to mean AGW then with or without manmade Co2 you would still have proof of it because there will always be extreme weather events. That is all it is really proof of, the weather is changeable and can be volatile. The claim that extreme weather events are more common now is very dubious at best and fluffed up with claims that wild fires are caused by extreme weather events without evidence, indeed there is much counter evidence that wild fires are being deliberately set by activists and in some cases where they are more damaging because of changes in wild fire management practises such as not clearing out brushwood and not manufacturing fire breaks by cutting down swathes of trees, ironically due to eco-activism. Specifically on global weather records, we have to remember that headlines of "hottest ever..." can often mean in the last 30/40 years. Even with records that go back 100 years it would be far more unusual if records were not commonly broken. With a warming climate we would expect less cold records than hot records to be broken but I'm not sure the MSM are much interested in announcing cold records. We can be sure of one thing though. The trillionaires and billionaires who sanctimoniously demand we pay more for less and go cold to save the planet won't be making any cut-backs tot heir lavish lifestyles nor stop buying private Islands and building multi-million beachfront properties they tell us will be under water within a decade.

Cherry-picking is something that has an established meaning. For example, if I seize on an individual warm event to try to prove something about global warming, that is cherry picking as well. Some night say, something the hockey stick was entirely based upon. But I agree of course, I am just pointing out that we get headline news every time a max date record is broken somewhere on earth even when those date records are far more insignificant. "yet over 10% (Of Earth?) has had its hottest January-September" I would like the source for that and what data is included and what data is excluded and remember the current way climate temps are recorded is different and all the old data was "hindsighted" and adjusted to fit with it. There is little debate there has been warming, there is no debate there is climate change. The debate is whether the data and headlines we are now given can be trusted when every climate model based upon it massively exaggerates warming. As for conspiracy theory, do you really think climate activists are running the AGW propaganda machine and not victims of it? That would be an odd conclusion. It is also worth noting that oil companies are by the far largest investors in so called "green energies". Indeed they have never made such amazing profits ever since the AGW bandwagon rolled into town. Conflicting isn't it? The real conspiracy theories are the asinine AGW propaganda and predictions of doom that are repeatedly debunked by future reality along with the "cherry picking" of reported weather events by media should at least raise suspicion all is not quite right. You don't need to look at the media, you need to look at who owns it and question why so many supposedly independent media companies are in lockstep with narratives that have proved to be false. I just believe that if you have to threaten, censor, persecute, blackmail and propagandise people into believing something that is supposed to be self evident then there may be an agenda behind that motivation and it is clearly not self evident. If your consensus is formed by only allowing voices that agree with you and banishing all dissent and alternative theories then it ain't much of a consensus, more a cabal. With the pandemic the now admitted "fear propaganda," PsyOps "nudge teams" and "Worse than worse case scenarios" being promoted as the most likely outcomes was of course all for our own good, just like being under de facto house arrest, being surveilled and tracked 24/7 and the reimagining of digital ID's and Social Credit score as "health passports". Now we see great powers being given to globalist institutions such as WHO over our freedom and sovereignty, all for our own good of course. I mention the pandemic because the propaganda and totalitarianism have some discomforting parallels with AGW narrative and sledge hammer diktats from on high while being told our suffering is the only way to make things better. Our media no longer speaks truth to power, power speaks through the media and so it is up to us to try and maintain a healthy democracy by ensuring debate can take place and being able to question that power. Have you noticed how our politicians now seem more like rulers than public servants? Anyhow conspiracy aside, there is a perverse an upside in that people are more aware of how precious our Earth is and as custodians of nature should ensure we are dutiful in our moral obligations. Unfortunately many do not understand or actually believe that, the more their speech and freedom is restricted and the more their free will is replaced with conditioning all the better the brave new world will be. We can just leave it up to all those bought and paid for experts and the AI the elite are building. Right, which means extreme heat does not prove climate change. So long as people understand that and both extreme cold and extreme heat are given the same media attention without any AGW spin all will be well. I won't hold my breath though, I'm not suicidal.

Yes it comes down to trust because the science is not conclusive beyond Co2 being one of many Greenhouse gasses, a fairly weak one in fact compared to other Greenhouse gasses. If we want to say that Co2 is the driver of climate change (natural or manmade) then we need to explain why there is a disconnect between that theory and Climate and Co2 levels on the geological scale. We know there has been glaciation and ice ages when Co2 has been double and even triple what it is now, so how can one propagate theories of runaway warming with Co2 much lower against that and call it scientific? Especially when Co2 has been much higher still for tens of millions of years and there was no runaway warming, indeed life thrived.

Tuesday night marked record low temperatures in various places. Copenhagen experienced its coldest November night in a hundred years, with the Frederiksberg district recording -7.7 degrees, the lowest since 1919. I would say that was more a record than a lot of the headlines we see about a Max temp date records being broken where records in many cases only go back a few decades or even less. If it is cherry-picked then so are all the "Global Boiling" statistics. The thing is urban spread and cites account for a couple of Celsius extra ambient heat that comparisons with records going back over a century don't account for. We have 24/7 heated homes and massive industry etc giving off unaccounted for latent heat that simply did not exist when these old records were made. Sure there has been some warming, we are in an interglacial period after all, but not to the extent being portrayed by how data is correlated data to show warming these days. We are told the fastest warming place on Earth is the Arctic and we have been told for decades that the Arctic would be sea ice free in the summer and the same things a re repeated today without a trace of self reflection or irony as they were all those years ago. When the head of UN uses hyperbole like "Global boiling," you know it is about fear propaganda and not science. All the wealthiest industrialists and corporate heads and global elite in the World didn't suddenly have an epiphany, become moral, and get down with Gaea Earth overnight. they found a way to make themselves self appointed arbiters of truth and dictate how we should live with less freedom and less wealth and less independence while they live in opulence and rule over us.