snow mad
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Posts posted by snow mad
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Jim Bacon on look east just said he doesn't expect any notable cold until at least the middle of Feb! Gggrrrr
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13 minutes ago, Interitus said:
Well looking at analogues in the latest GEOS / MERRA data up to 29/12/15, at the moment I think it would be probably last week of January at the earliest, and more likely early February - if there is one of course.
Although they are called 'sudden', the data going back to 1979 shows that the warming and wind reductions associated with SSW form quite well defined envelopes and the current and forecast wind speeds and temperatures are such that while an SSW in the first half of January cannot be ruled out, it would involve changes more dramatic than any seen in the previous 36 years.
But are we just as likely to get some cold to our shores from SSW precursor high pressure set ups in favourable places as we are likely to get cold from the after affects of an SSW lottery fallout?
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this must be all to little to late? If this does happen BA will the continent be cold enough or will it be a repeat of February 2005? Great synoptically but no cold over there?Not much to say as the modelling seems to be evolving in a quite orderly fashion towards blocking. I didn't make much of the ECM extended last evening but to me, it hinted at the block getting far enough north to allow the jet to undercut. Then the 00z suite followed on and the 12z does the same. Current extended eps show that, in a fortnight, we could well be looking at blocking to our north and northeast with the jet running into Iberia.
but that was to marginal for down here unfortunately so would settle for an early spring.I'd rather remember the great legendary easterly of March 2013/early April 2013.
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great we've just had another crap winter and the perpetual autumn is about to continue! Roll on summer!For those who don't have access to the ECM data on Weatherbell - the WSI blog has posted up some charts from the most recent ECM32. Headline - cooler into March.
Images courtesy of WSI ... http://www.wsi.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/ECM_125.png
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yes enjoy it as it seems we maybe going through a cluster of more average winters currently so who knows when we might get something a little more extreme to allow more of us to join the party!Fair enough, but I thought more in here may appreciate the whole spectrum of wintry weather, and not just one aspect (snow). I guess I'm lucky in that I saw a very impressive fall of snow on Thursday, leaving over 4 inches in just a few hours. In fact, there's still a fair bit of it remaining on sheltered grass. I can understand the frustration for those down south that haven't seen any yet, but there's still plenty of time. Things can, and do, change at short notice, for better or worse.
I'm just going to enjoy what we've got, while it lasts.
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thing is its snow that most people want down south and it's been pants now for ages! Frost is nice but it's hard to sledge on that stuff! Bring back the 80's especially jan 87!!!I knew this forum was snow biased, but I can't get my head around the despondency surrounding what may well amount to beautiful winter weather over the next week or so, with crisp days and cold frosty nights. Sounds great to me, I just hope the cloud isn't too intrusive.
Anyway, that was a mini moan about the moaning.
P.S - February isn't spring, and the sun really isn't all that strong yet.
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This winter so far has been shocking! Even this recent spell has been rubbish. Nothing settles and it all melts within hours so it's just been teasing us. I'm now writing off this winter as a dud because it's been crap here in February since 91 and I think something has changed to stop us having another. People say what about March 13? Well down here that was crap to! Again nothing stuck around and was to soggy to do anything with, so in my eyes it's been to long since a proper easterly has been here so am now looking forward to a nice warm spring but that probably won't happen due to an SSW or something and prolong the slushy stuff until June !! There rant over now back to hoping something crops up but don't fancy waiting another 24 years to walk on top of the six foot drifts we had back then
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january 2010 had a Scandinavia high of sorts at the beginningTalking about January. There wasn't a classical type easterly during that month.
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We had a good shower today about 4 pm which left a covering. One clap of thunder in their to!
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think another slider coming up?Not sure, but is a Northerly coming in from Greenland ar 174?
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the thing is nobody knows so the question is pointless as many have already said! Just calm down I'm sure we will get some snow before the next ten days are out as the low is likely to sink further south and west bringing an easterly of some sortEasy for you to make this comment given your location , other people are just searching for what we all want , so naturally they are asking questions from those who may or may not know....
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yep looks like another snowless winter down here! Even in most mild winters past we at least got to see some snow falling at some point.Looks like February is our last chance saloon for us in the South. Beginning to understand the pessimism now
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looks like a horses head! Must be a sign? Hopefully it won't gallop off somewhere else with winter!This more like it in FI from the op.
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i think it's the manner of its failing or bias as it gets a lot of people excited as it tends to be bias towards building heights in the desired places time and again only to jump ship last minute now.The ECM is far better than the GFS, the stats prove this. It's ironic that the same members that go on about how poor the ECM is past day 7, post day 16 GFS charts to back up there views! ECM day 7-10 charts are far better than GFS 16 day charts that's for sure.
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Looking as if the seasonal models pre winter may have been onto something after all?
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the Beeb just forecast double figures for next week at times so I would say it's looking pretty ordinary and there is nothing in the models to suggest otherwise. Wish there was but this is not looking goodI hate using the word cool to describe polar maritime incursions with strong winds, it would be cold!! Frequent incursions of 528 dam thicknesses is not standard winter fayre, it translates to cold and wintry at times, I don't agree with gibby.
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problem being that PM incursions are pretty rubbish for most! We are just looking for min 3 day proper cold to get some sledging in but at the moment there is nothing on the horizon and anything that looks good just gets blown away very quickly. I agree with Crewe there has been way to much optimism and hope casting sorry but that's the truthYou've cherry picked one chart at the transitional phase between the next Pm incursion and suggested that is the dominant pattern. How is the transitional phase the dominant pattern?
Literally the next few slides show the PM incursions.
We will eventually be entering a pattern similar to the start of December.
Only this time the colder SST will aid wintry potential.
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Im starting to think it is as we'll be half way through before we know it and still looking two weeks ahead. Just seems like the more the models get upgraded the less confident I become in there output.Winter's over eh? (Ps it's 26th Dec. I wouldn't write off summer based on charts of 26th June).
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yes Nick this was a great event that wasn't supposed to have been as bad! The Orwell bridge became blocked due to lorries unable to get up it so had to spend many an hour crawling through ipswich to get home. Only to find drifts of snow nearly blocking the road to get home was a classic surprise eventThe infamous snow event from February 6 1996, just by looking at those 850's some would think how on earth did that produce some remarkable snow totals especially in the nw, even the Channel Islands saw significant snow from this and see how close they are to the 0c 850 temperature.
SLP
850 Temperature
The key was that the actual flow into the UK was from the se.
For those old enough to remember this event and who lived in London at the time like myself this event is etched in the memory as the snow ground to a halt just to the west of London!
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Merry Christmas to everyone. I'm starting to think this winter is going to slip by with no snow events as it is always jam tomorrow. Time is ticking by now and it won't be long before we will be half way through winter and I bet we will still be waiting! Well not me I'm off to enjoy my life instead of being stuck behind this screen because the upgraded gfs and ecm have lead us up the garden path to many times. Enjoy!
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only this time last year some places on the east coast actually had higher levels than 1953This is Icelandic style LP system as PV is displaced Eastwards, the UK's proximity to PV is at point blank range when trigger pulled.
Extreme for East Coast and Dutch.
North Sea floods of 1953,1962 in mind a repeat has been along time coming
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is Twitter robbing us of some interesting discussion and learning from threads such as the start thread?
It just seems that some of our more knowledgable folk are slipping over to Twitter and leaving us behind.... Or am I just being.......?
Meant to say strat thread
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You are a legend! Say no moreWell, the CMA GSM is actually based on a revision of a ECMWF spectral model, with initial data from NCEP GSI. Probably has one or two custom modifications.
But still, it has configuration of T639, with 60 vertical levels and the top at 0.1mb. The output grid is 0.25, so that is why it looks high res compared to the 0.5/1 from GFS.
It has a legit configuration for resolving stratosphere dynamics, AFAIK.
Tho I am not familiar with any verifications for the strat.-
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It would be a shame to have a high SAI for it to be ruined by unusual Synoptics maybe Chio can shed a bit more light on this worriying development?Interesting Interview with Judah Cohen, question 19 towards the bottom, with regards to his concerns with the 'unexpected' development of the polar low over NW Asia recently, stopping the expansion of the Siberian High and interfering with any further WAFz and weakening of the polar vortex:
Tho I am not familiar with any verifications for the strat.
Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I've just about had it with this cold shot it is looking feeble and I can see it being a long way back to cold after this high has sunk down onto us!!