Dampdorset82
-
Posts
158 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Dampdorset82
-
-
not a flake here in poole yet, must be that snow shield we have here!!
-
A thought, would it not be a good idea to make a separate thread for discussion regarding upcoming snow potential?
In here people can talk about "downgrades" despite models on the whole maybe showing an upgrade for cold potential, you have highly IMBY orientated posts influenced by the snow, and the general flow of posts is all much harder to follow over the last couple of weeks, with a lot of posts in which the content is highly lacking (in any decent analytical sense). As a result, unless you've been following for a fair few pages, the context of people's comments regarding upgrades and downgrades can get very confusing; particularly so for newer members I would imagine!
Just my two pennies worth
100% spot on
-
A number of folk understandably commenting on the jet having difficulty shifting the cold bloc.
I’ve been involved with the weather for over 50 years and’nowt has changed. In those days no computer models were around. The same rules of thermal dynamics apply whether it is a human or a computer trying to predict one day, 5 days or 55 days ahead. Yet we still have the same problem. Why, I have no idea-answers on a post card please, and I would imagine the senior man at Exeter would love to get one!
not quite true Dd
It is actually a mix with both being required
If for example the ECM had consistantly predicted mild sw weather and last min changed to cold that would have been consistantly wrong however if the ECM was forecasting every 2 out of 3 runs cold you would say its trending towards cold.....which I would be happier with
I agree a mix of the 2 would be best but that never happens........unfortunately
-
Rain here in Poole temps 6.9c currently............lovely
-
it looks like hampshire east and a line north and east of that. I count Dorset as central southern england and we have rain alsoBrilliant forecast on bbc 24 , showed snow tmoz eve , he said cause a few probs , then showed a big area of snow Monday pushing over the country , the only place that had rain was the far southwest.
-
Missing ballon data or not at least its consisitent
The difference will be if its consistantly right or wrong. Consistancy is not always good its more about trends
-
Now casting, it's heaving down out there at 6.1C.
As to the outlook, I'm not even going there
Im from Poole to and tbh I think we wont get much snow mainly rain it appears.
As for the rest of our region the higher and the further north and east you are obviously the higher risk.
-
Just before we get there, please try not to post the same chart numerous times, it clogs up the thread and makes it very hard to read through, you can garantee another member will post it so bare that in mind!
People get told to back up there thoughts with charts? im confused with the rules in here sometimes
-
Will 'up the cagyness' re Mon-Tues event in forecast tonight based on new advice. Much uncertainty.
This set up must be causing some real head aches at the met tonight with regards to warnings. In your opinion and not the mets how do you see things playing out for our region?
-
Morning all!
I don't want egg on my face, it had better snow Saturday night/Sunday morning and Monday/Tuesday as I have been ramping to high heaven
My forecast currently shows nada on the snow front, a small % chance on Thursday by all accounts and lots of rain.
See you all later, I am planning on cuddling up with a bottle of red and netweather for the night. My rock 'n roll lifestyle will burn me out one day!
I think we need to look at the bigger picture with regards to snowfall predictions. Models will produce a forecast based on data at tha specific time. Each run navigates the low in different directions which even by 100 miles wll be significant to fall locations.
What is clear is that the low has never been far off the mark for our region and by the 12z run be at least 70% confident of a final path. Im happy that snow will be present for our except west devon and cornwall.
In short look at snow predictions from last night to this morning and see how much uncertainty there is. Best bet is not the models but a lampost!
Friday night model watching.....what more could you ask for and I think you may need something stronger than wine lol
-
Can someone please post a link to the GFS you are all talking about.im very new to all this and have no clue
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html GFS via wetterzentrale
-
down on the coast here in Poole I expect nothing but rain and sleet.....very frustrating
-
Im from the south coast (dorset) and annoyingly the charts just show rain rain wet bloody rain!!!ahhhhhhhhhhhh
-
The snow risk is risk is showing in nearly all the models now, with exception to the far south coast and SW.
I cant post charts as im on my phone!
-
It's showing snow potential yes, but its a messy picture so detail is irrelevant at this stage!
I still cant see snow for the south coast though.....
-
Thank you. Hopefully the NAE will give us more hope tonight.
Indeed the NAE will just be in range to forecast with confidence. The issue is with the positioning of the LP moving in 100 miles north or south could make so much difference and its still not pinning it down. Is GFS have a nightmare or is it head and shoulders above the other models......interesting eh?!
-
Can someone with knowledge please tell me in layman terms if the 06 GFS is better for us or worse so far? I'm reading it as better, but with less precip? Thanks... Sorry for OT but I feel more at home in here!
short term its nots bad potential for snow away from coasts sat night/sunday morning, mid range milder weather pushing back in mid next week FI is FI who knows
-
On the weather charts for snow risk it's got even less chance for snow on Saturday night/Sunday morning
I knew it!I hope so much it changes because this weather is minging!! We don't need any more dull, cool, rainy weather, we want snowwwwwwwww
i dont mind snow if sticks around for a while I dont like the sludge after id take rain anyday. I like to see fresh falling snow but not the Ice rink after. 2010 looked like drunks all over the place lol
-
Gibby always plays down cold and snow, seems a mild lover, but I do think GFS has this one right, no cold until Feb
hes played down the cold becuase there hasnt been any cold.....so spot on then.
-
Come on guys, we cant take one run and say it is going to happen, whether it shows raging Easterlies or South Westerlies, if it shows again on the 12z's then granted we need to worry, or worse cross model agreement, but it is just one run, we've seen ,more flips than the gymnastics at the Olympics this week, so lets just see would be my urge.
progressively the colder is becoming short lived and I think alot of folks have been caught up in FI thinking a cold run was in the bag. The truth of it was the Met never had confidence this weekend for anything severe and FI is FI and like it does its changing!
-
The 06z is zonal zonal zonal from Monday onwards!
-
so snow sunday? As a learner i am so confused think its going in the model thread to much!
Snow is not certain by any means sunday. Its possible but not probable.
The key is the position of the LP and how much cold air cuts in behind the PPN knife edge stuff really
-
Don't despair! Saturday only the transitional day! And anyway: much can and will change on ppn detail. Wintry flavour will v much depend on strength of undercut phased with frontal advance and then retreat Sunday. And looking further into MR... well, it has potential to be truly dire across the UK.
Exactly, Of course the likes of the moores and salisbury plain north dorset I would think will see snow. On personal note the likely hood for our region to see snow on saturday must be less than 30% at this stage.
-
Hi all. Much though I'd love to precis the detailed weekend-Monday analysis just in from Exeter, I can't: it's complex, would take ages and much is commercially sensitive anyway.
However: change of type confidence is, of course, now high but with Shannon entropy still at near record levels, elements of confidence are low. Track of low into weekend has good support however; indeed some adjustments made by Exeter to their GM to align somewhat more alongside EC and GFS. So, in that respect, we are happier with growing continuity on the broad weekend story.However, note WBFL remains widely at 600m+ Sat daytime: heavy rain for most in S, SW etc albeit northern extent uncertain. Either way, signal is strongest as a rain issue Sat (heaviest since Xmas period). But on Sunday, sub-200m WBFL is across whole country; wintry flavour on rear edge of occlusion as it retreats S and profiles suggesting light snow showers in eastern areas (especially) thereafter, even from limited cloud depth. But at this juncture, the key message is how the GFS widespread S snow signal on Saturday is NOT supported in UKMO analysis, versus the very wet potential: so as others have said on forum, don't ever take raw GFS ppn type fields literally at this range!!
By late Sun into Mon, next uncertainty develops into W/NW and confidence extremely low by that juncture.
From Ian. game over
There must be confidence of high Ice risk Sat night once the rain clears. What I will say is this...........mid next week!!
I knew it!
South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards
in Regional
Posted
still not 1 flake here in Poole!!