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Tom Jarvis

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Everything posted by Tom Jarvis

  1. Tom Jarvis
    it is officially the strongest storm in recorded history now with sustained wind of 196MPH
  2. Tom Jarvis
    now just been upgraded to 195mph and still intensifying
  3. Tom Jarvis
    I think this storm could be the strongest storm seen by moden mankind. Now saying it might have 200mph sustained winds which are near the strength of a very strong tornado
  4. Tom Jarvis
    Just to say pray for the Philippines buzzsaw storm going to hit in the next 7 hours
  5. Tom Jarvis
    here click on the model you want on the banner http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php
  6. Tom Jarvis
    it was already in the 12z at 240hs
  7. Tom Jarvis
    just like that failed easterly last year where the highs needed to touch but a shortwave stopped it from happening. but in this case it is the heights disrupting the PV over the pacific that is needed to get cold to the UK
  8. Tom Jarvis
    from what i'm seeing. the key part of changing the pattern is the ridging on the pacific side of the vortex which is causing the disruption in the PV. once this happens as pointed out by CC the knock on effects lead to the uk becoming cold. so this ridging is now in the 240H timeframe which we hope will continue to be modelled until 0h once that ridging happens it set off a chin reaction which causes the uk to become cold. so the key part for getting the uk cold isn't that far into FI and hopefully it will get closer.
  9. Tom Jarvis
    no look at the pacific ridge with heights disrupting the pv not much difference than to the gfs at the same time in that area.
  10. Tom Jarvis
    possibility of Greenland height there
  11. Tom Jarvis
    but we can look out for heights in the pacific disrupting the vortex which could lead to something the gfs is showing in fi
  12. Tom Jarvis
    sausage high incoming cold and look at the cold to the north east but FI
  13. Tom Jarvis
    I think the 12z GFS is going to give something cold in FI as the PV is allot weaker and there is high pressure is building in the Greenland area and a ridge disrupting the vortex in the pacific. hello Greenland high
  14. Tom Jarvis
    Not surprised there hasn't been any comment on the 0z the gfs fi shows zonal all the way with a north south split with the south being warmer than the north. The only crum of comfort is that on the last frame of the gfs high could build into the Greenland area.
  15. Tom Jarvis
    can you prove it with a chart as what you say is misleading to people who were to read your post
  16. Tom Jarvis
    the -5 line isn't over the England at all on the latest gfs run for Tuesday here is the chart to prove it.
  17. Tom Jarvis
    That is easier said than done when it is a big display for a village where they close the main road through the village!!
  18. Tom Jarvis
    hope it doesn't cancel newick bonfire on Saturday night it is a really good fireworks display
  19. Tom Jarvis
    I hope it changes as well as I'm meant to be deer stalking in the morning before sunrise
  20. Tom Jarvis
    Has the worst of the storm passed or is there more to come
  21. Tom Jarvis
    how could the sky news reported that when they are discussing the papers??
  22. Tom Jarvis
    estofex just updated and put us all under level2 warning!!!!!!!!!! Storm Forecast Storm ForecastValid: Mon 28 Oct 2013 06:00 to Tue 29 Oct 2013 06:00 UTCIssued: Sun 27 Oct 2013 23:15Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER Note: ESTOFEX forecasts address only convective storms, not windstorms unrelated to deep, moist convection. The level areas do therefore not represent regions affected by non-convective severe windA level 2 was issued for SE England, N France, Benelux, NW Germany and S Denmark mainly for severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.A level 1 was issued for an area surrounding the level 2 mainly for severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.
  23. Tom Jarvis
    so my area as I live in east Sussex near uckfield
  24. Tom Jarvis
    will the met office give a red warning??
  25. Tom Jarvis
    I live just up the road from you in nutly which will probably get worse winds than you as we are on top of a hill
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