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SE Blizzards

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Everything posted by SE Blizzards

  1. SE Blizzards
    Thanks
  2. SE Blizzards
    Can anyone tell me how the BOM model was looking tonight? I seem to be having a few problems with my computer at present and cant get on to the meteociel site Maybe the same gremlins that seem to be in the GFS model have made their way onto my computer.
  3. SE Blizzards
    GFS is in real danger of getting trumped by the NOGAPS. If that happens then it will be well and truly embarrassing for the GFS. As far as i know it hasn't been upgraded yet, but someone with more knowledge than me might be able to confirm this.
  4. SE Blizzards
    Yes, quite right. i think i remember steve saying yesterday that the GFS will fall into line within 24-36hrs (or something like that)! Looks like he may be proven right.?
  5. SE Blizzards
    Absolutely. I've only been model watching for approx 2 years and have already noticed that myself. As for the rest of the GFS run, not much point in looking past 144h at the moment if it cant get anything right pre 144h!
  6. SE Blizzards
    At long last it looks like the GFS has started to come on board with the UKMO and the ECM, and after days of being in what can only be described as some sort of a coma its finally beginning to wake up and smell the coffee. As others have said many times before on here... its a joke of a model! GFS - YOU FAIL!!
  7. SE Blizzards
    Obviously my theory of putting this consistency thing to bed has imploded! lol! Night all.
  8. SE Blizzards
    Well, one of these models has got it very very wrong! But which one?? There's 1 thing for sure.... We haven't got long till we find out.
  9. SE Blizzards
    Ok, let's put this consistency thing to bed! Here is today's 4 GFS runs for 12th Feb.... Today's GFS 0Z... and remember, all these are for 12th Feb! Today's GFS 6Z Today's GFS 12Z Today's GFS 18Z As you can clearly see... Absolutely NO consistency from the GFS what so ever!! Easterlies / northerlies /south westerlies... Just about everything u could think of really! Ok, now lets look at the ECM last 4 runs for 12th Feb... Yesterdays ECM 0Z Yesterdays ECM 12Z Todays ECM 0Z Todays ECM 12Z As you can clearly see... much more of a consistency from the ECM with more or less an easterly flow on all 4 runs! Hopefully that has put to bed any doubts about consistency!
  10. SE Blizzards
    I think if you go and take a look at all 4 GFS runs today consistency is certainly a word i wouldn't use!
  11. SE Blizzards
    Couldn't agree more! The GFS has shown no consistency what so ever over the last few days, where as the UKMO and the ECM have been pretty rock solid in their outputs. If anyone is siding with the GFS, (a model that's all over the place at present) over 2 very highly rated models in the UKMO and ECM who both are being very consistent, then they are either very brave, or very foolish!?
  12. SE Blizzards
    I think there would be some major snowfall if the CMA verified. Although uppers are marginal at times! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php?&ech=24&mode=0&carte=0
  13. SE Blizzards
    And i'm pretty sure that the GFS backs down to the ECM on a regular basis too. It's all swings and roundabouts really. Am pleased that the GEM has come on board though. It's not everyone's favourite model but it did do rather well in last months cold spell of weather (that's not to say it will get this one correct though). Anyway, D-day is fast approaching, so we'll all find out in the next day or 2 which of the models are correct and which one's have got this very wrong.
  14. SE Blizzards
    Meanwhile the NOGAPS and the GEM both on board and back the ECM / UKMO! http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0
  15. SE Blizzards
    Do you still have the same feeling now??
  16. SE Blizzards
    Maybe so. That day 10 chart from the ECMWF on the 28th jan is certainly not the worst day 10 chart ive ever seen in regards to what is forecast now to happen for the same date. Out of interest what was the GFS showing on the 28th for day 10 ??
  17. SE Blizzards
    FWIW ... the NOGAPS is backing the ECM too! EDIT... Sorry, NOGAPS doesn't go up to 192h... but if it did it would support ECM
  18. SE Blizzards
    With the help of ladders!?
  19. SE Blizzards
    Well, around day 6 seems to be make or break right now for this upcoming cold period of weather. So, with this in mind, i just thought i would take a look at the ECMWF and the GFS to see how both models have been performing lately and what they were predicting 6 days ago for today, and compare the two charts to today's output! First we have the ECMWF chart for 6 days ago, and it's predictions for today.... Now here is the ECMWF actual chart for today... I think you would agree that this was not a bad effort at all by the ECMWF!! Ok, so now on to the GFS, and it's predictions 6 days ago for today... Now here is the GFS actual chart for today... I think you would agree that although this wasn't a bad effort from the GFS, (remembering that 6 days in weather is a very long time), it really wasn't on the same level as the ECMWF! Ok, so what can we learn from this? Not a lot in all honesty as we all know that models can sometimes be closer to the mark on day 6 at points throughout the year, and then just a few days later it's 6 day predictions look terrible compared to what the models show at 0h! But as you can clearly see at present the ECMWF is performing slightly better. Let's just hope that today's ECMWF chart for day 6 is closer to the mark than the GFS's once again. Todays' ECMWF chart for day 6... Today's GFS chart for day 6... So, FWIW, my thoughts are that the ECMWF has got this pattern nailed! Don't get me wrong, i'm not saying that this up and coming cold spell of weather will break all records.... i.e it's going to be snowmageddon for everyone, blizzards etc etc, but i do believe that the atlantic will struggle to break any block down once it is established! I could indeed be wrong (it wouldn't be the first time, and probably won't be the last) but that is how i see things at present. SE BLIZZARDS
  20. SE Blizzards
    Yes, actually you are right. Gfs has performed woefully at times this winter (has have many of the other models), so as you say, probably best it doesn't jump on board!
  21. SE Blizzards
    Come on, admit it... we've all had a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and probably 5th look at that ECM 12z run!! What we need now is the GFS to come on board then things could get very interesting. Roll on the pub run!
  22. SE Blizzards
    Check out the uppers throughout the whole of the latest CFS run! ...Shame it all goes pear shaped around 960h! http://www.meteociel...&carte=0&run=10
  23. SE Blizzards
    LOL at the PV... Just LOL!!
  24. SE Blizzards
    And the reward for best run of the day goes to....... the CMA! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php
  25. SE Blizzards
    Anyone have any ideas if essex will get any snow on monday??
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