SE Blizzards

P15 is even better... I suspect frosty will be all over this later

Yes, just viewing the 18Z ens and there is certainly a little bit more interest in FI from a coldies perspective. Nothing major, but certainly a bit better viewing than the dross we've had to view in the Ens of recent days.

Just been viewing that myself. Amazing run for cold lovers. More or less once it arrives it keeps the cold right up until the end of the month. Even the odd channel low in there too. ...Oh if only!!

Thank you for the info Ian Sounds like many options currently on the table then for the 10+ day period.

After viewing todays GFS 12Z from a coldies perspective one would be forgiven for reaching for the medicine cupboard, but alas, Ian F has given the UKMO's take on how some sort of blocking pattern 'could' become established later on this month. So for now at least, the prozac is staying firmly locked away. GEM 12Z finishes with +14 uppers Here's hoping for a much better ECM in an hour's time.

JMA @ 192

Pert 12 please http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=300&mode=0&carte=0

Can you please show me some statistics that back up your 'GFS is the main model' theory. Thanks in advance.

Totally agree Frosty. A great day. Lets just hope for more of the same tomorrow. This forum is the best, and also your posts are always a joy to read. Keep up the good work mate, you're a breath of fresh (or should that be arctic) air to this thread

12z Ens... Only 1 member really wanting a continuation of the cold for more than 3 or 4 days after it initially arrives. Where as the 18z Ens a few members wanting to keep the cold longer. Ens definitely trending colder... Here's the comparison...

I've never had to just read through so much negativity in all my life over on the MOD thread (or should that be the MAD thread) ! Are what the models showing really that bad?? There will always undoubtedly be upgrades and downgrades regarding cold weather, it happens every year and unfortunately it's part and parcel of living next to a massive ocean. If people want 50 foot snowdrifts, raging blizzards etc etc then i suggest they consider moving to the North pole. At this time of year we could be staring down the barrel of endless weeks of south westerly muck, but the truth of the matter is WE ARE NOT!! Some people need to get a grip of themselves and realise that it is still only AUTUMN, and WINTER does not officially start for another 16 days. Of course, if in say 2/3 months time we still haven't seen any decent cold and snowy weather then, and only then, will i start to have a sinking feeling and start reaching for the prozac. But for the time being the medicine cupboard is staying well and truly shut. And i must say, although i absolutely loved NOV/DEC 2010, i really think that period of weather has really clouded many peoples minds. Folk now expect that to be the norm, when in reality it's really not. The AO and NAO are possibly both set to go negative soon and that imo can only bode well for the future. FWIW i actually think this winter will be a good one for cold/snow, but it may take a while to get going. Right, i think it's time i went and poured myself a brandy because all this model watching recently has done me in.

LOL! That made me chuckle! I doubt even Gibby would say rain and sleet at low levels with those kinda uppers.... but i fully understand what you're saying

The chart you have posted is not very cold. Here are the 850's... I would much prefer to see something along these lines... Edit: Above charts have now changed.

Fantastic run from the ECM from a coldies perspective. Mildies reaction to latest output... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYXKrpHUqFQ

Lovely Jubbly! Brrrrr!!!!

Beast from the East? According to the GFS 18Z anyone searching for any mild weather from this weekend onwards might need these to clutch at...

Latest CFS 6Z and 12Z. Strong blocking still showing, and long may it continue

Indeed. At one stage or another most of the 18Z Ens show some interest.

A selection of beauty's from the 18Z suit!

Yes, it's still very early days of course, but at least we are now starting to see something worth note in the charts compared to all the complete dross we've had to put up with just recently.

Lovely ending to tonight's ECM. CC has been quite bullish over his thoughts about things turning cooler/colder from mid November onwards and if you see post #378 which was posted last week i was in total agreement with him and said that i was watching out for a pattern change just after mid month, and as of yet i have seen very little that has changed my way of thinking. Of course, nothing is set in stone as of yet but there are some small but rather encouraging signs (albeit in FI) starting to show up on some of the models that something very interesting 'could' be imminent. Let's just hope that something similar to tonight's ECM run verifies, because if it does i think winter 2013/14 could start off with quite a loud bang.

Interesting video below from Simon Keeling, someone who i follow quite regularly and is right more often than not. A little bit about super typhoon Haiyan, the ao and nao, tonights ECM run, and he even mentions the magical 'B' word towards the end of the video that most coldies love to hear. BLOCKING!! http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Have to say that the Ens look pretty good this afternoon. Quite a few go with height rises around the Greenland area in FI. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=336&size= Note: Of course, the link above may look different once the 18Z ens are out later this evening.

CFS still beating that same old blocking drum...

Ah maybe so, but i have seen u post charts in the past that have been 2 weeks away when its showing 'the milder options', so why can't the coldies do the same when 'colder options' are showing? Nobody is saying they will verify. They are just simply commenting on whats being shown Brrrrrrr!!