SE Blizzards
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Oh, don't get me wrong kq, i do expect 'some' differences at Days 5/6, there always is, but the scale of these differences at the moment is something we've not seen for quite some time. -
There is even a couple of members trying for an Easterly at the same sort of time frame. I thought i was confused watching the drama unfold yesterday, but that's nothing compared to how confused i am now. Does anyone have the foggiest on how this is all going to pan out, because i don't have a clue!?
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No probs Banbury Naughty of me really, as some newbies may of taken the 'white-out/blowtorch comments seriously, so apologies for that. I was just highlighting/emphasising just how differently the models see things at present. It really is crazy that models can disagree at such lengths at just Days 5/6!
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Both 'white out conditions' and 'blowtorch' comments were made tongue in cheek...
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GFS (P) has near on white out conditions next Saturday... ECM has us in a blowtorch next Saturday... I don't know which one of these models is correct, but one of them is going to have shed loads of egg on it's face next weekend! Maybe both?
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And viewing the 18Z's out to 132, people are going to be more confused than ever because both runs look completely different to me. This is getting beyond a joke now! :w00t:
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Completely disagree. I think you have made the cardinal sin and commented on a run wayyyy to early. This chart screams potential if you ask me....
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ECM Day 8 mean... GFS Day 8 mean... It's been quite a while since i've seen such a difference at Day 8. I am totally and utterly confused
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Anyone for Round 2 ?? What a crazy day of model watching....
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ECM 12z shows a freeze in 10 days time, GFS 18Z op shows some sort of a bartlett ?????????????? Anyone who thinks they know what's going to happen in 10 days time is kidding themselves imo. But surely a bartlett is the outsider of the two, right? And then from that bartlett at Day 10, we get this chart at Day 16... That can only happen in the strange world of the GFS in FI!!
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JMA @ 192
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THE MIGHTY NAVGEM!!!
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The 12Z's are better, it's just some people rubbish'd them far too early imo
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That's a pretty brave call there Barry, but i must say i'm kinda with you on that one. However, 'IF' the ECM continues on it's scrooge ways on both it's runs tomorrow i really will have to start thinking it's called this one correctly. More fun and games to come tomorrow no doubt.
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Ta very much STV 18Z Ens Day 8 mean... Pretty decent end, to a very eventful day.
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I think the Blue line is the GFS 12Z op run, is it not? Perhaps someone else can confirm this. Edit: 18Z Ens look fairly decent at 192. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192
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Oh, silly me, of course it is. Thanks BA. It's getting late, and it's been a long day.... ECM Ens are out for London, and yet again the Op was out of kilter with most of its members at Days 9/10... The ECM op needs to get into the Christmas spirit pronto!
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Looks like we're not getting a mean for the 18Z Ens at present, so it's a case of clicking on the individual members to see what they're showing. For newbies, click on Pertubation/Disturbances...1,2,3 etc http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=0&carte=1
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ECM op very much on the milder side late on, but with the control following it, should we be a little concerned?
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Lol, no wonder newbies get confused at times.
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There was no real wording of snow at all (especially on lower ground) in the METO longer range outlook a couple of weeks ago with regards to the same period as above. It just goes to show how things can (and often do) change. That is why i never get hung up over their longer range forecasts (week 3 to 4)! Seems to me their 2 week forecast is getting more and more wintry day by day.
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Well, yes we can.... -15! :w00t: :w00t: :w00t: :w00t:
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Ens out to day 10 and some of them look absolutely stunning.... http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=252&size= Day 10 mean...
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Agreed CC. A fascinating period of model watching coming up i feel over the next few days/weeks. Fully anticipating it to be miles better than the crud we constantly had to put up with last 'Winter'... (from a cold perspective, of course)
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I wouldn't worry too much about the extended CFS NAO forecasts Karyo. I'm pretty sure a while ago it didn't spot this upcoming drop we're about to have, so i would have little faith in what it's showing past 2 - 3 weeks.
