SE Blizzards

Last night there was a -10 showing up in the ENS for 2M temps in central England. Now there is a -13. I wonder if we can go lower than that on the next set? Updated AO forecast 18thDec:

18Z Ens CET 2M Temps see's the GFS op very much on the milder side in FI Also note a -10 in there! Let's hope the 0Z reverts back to one of the colder options. It's been a long day. Let's all hope for upgrades tomorrow. Goodnight.

Just a quick reminder just how spectacularly wrong the ECM can be at Day 10.... Here is what the ECM was predicting on Nov 8th for Day 10 If i remember correctly, one or two (me included if i'm honest) were getting a little excited. But..... the actually chart that verified for that day.... Completely and utterly wrong! Of course, this is just one example, but to be honest there have been many many more examples like that which have happened over the last few months with regards to this model. Like Nick S said earlier, it really has been all over the place in it's predictions way out in la la land for quite some time now, and that's why i'd be very wary of what it is showing in FI. It may be the 'daddy' when it comes to weather models, but just like the rest of them, it does have it's flaws.

Eighteenth Christmas update I must say, i do love it when Gavin P goes into 'ramp mode'

Lol, Just take a look at this beauty.

Control run at Day 10 backing the GFS + GFS(P) All eyes now on the upcoming ECM. Please don't let 'us' down....

X-mas day, Low pressure coming up from the SW, Cold air digging in all the while from the North. No prizes for guessing what happens next Snow for some (midlands north) Then a full on Blizzard for boxing day / 27th

Anyone that is interested in LR Models, (i must say i'm not) then Gavin P has just made a video about what the JMA + CFS are showing for the next 2 - 3 Months.

You don't get to see Boxing Day charts like this very often, so enjoy! Of course, just for fun at this stage, but you just never know....

Fantastic post as always Tamara Looking at today's updated AO forecast, many members taking a nose dive into negative territory as we head towards the New Year.

Yep, best set of Ens we've seen all Winter by the looks of things. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=300 Lots of 'potential' there. Just when you thought it was a done deal. At least we can look forward to tomorrow now with a little interest

We'll have to agree to disagree, because like i said, i have seen quite a few 'blocked' February charts. Anyway, let's leave it there. Merry Christmas

Well, we must of been viewing it differently then because i have seen quite a few blocked charts from the CFS as of late. Especially February. And i hope it continues that way because there is nobody who would love to see a blocked last two thirds of Winter more than me. And i'm not one for holding a grudge at all, so your suggestion of me holding a grudge against a LR model is laughable.

How many more blocked charts like these is the CFS gonna throw out at us...?

Where oh where is this going....

Hi CC. Ironically, since you said about the disappearing signal of HLB for January i have kept an eye on the CFS, and to be honest HLB for january has come back quite strongly in it's last few updates. Here's the most recent update for January... And just for fun, here's February...

Ermmm... Gavin P is not 'forecasting' a bitterly cold xmas/new year, he is clearly just showing and commenting on what the CFS is showing!!!

Gavin P's Fourteenth Christmas/New Year update, and just like the 13th update it ends up a real cold one, with heavy snow and blizzards!

Nice one Steve. Good luck.

Good old Gavin P ramping up Xmas and the New Year... lol You just can't beat a good ramp!

There we have it, from the horses mouth so to speak. Anything past 14 days (10 at a push in my book) is not worth worrying about. I can never understand those who get so hooked up and worried when LR models (especially seasonal ones) show no sign of cold. Anyway, looking at the 18Z gefs at Day 10 there is just enough there to keep coldies at least a 'little' interested. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=240 We're only at the very start of Winter 2014/15, so onwards and upwards i say.

Also, interesting video from Simon Keeling today. ...But can us 'Coldies' really trust the CFS?????

Gavin P has issued his Winter 2014/15 forecast. If you haven't the time to watch the whole video, the Main headlines are: Relatively mild first half of Winter, then becoming progressively colder into the second half. Overall UK probably slightly milder than average, but significantly colder than last Winter. Maybe a blocked pattern emerging later on after a mid Winter SSW, which should allow much more prolonged cold for February. Snowfall close to average, but there maybe more during the 'fighting' of December and particularly January than in February, when the overall pattern turns cold and blocked. A very interesting Winter on the way with something for everyone if this forecast is correct.

To all cold/snow weather fans, MERRY CHRISTMAS Love from... The CFS.

GFS is looking a bit lonely in all honesty in showing a flatter pattern at Day 6 Meanwhile the GEM + UKMO show more apmlification in the Atlantic, bringing in a northerly of sorts at Day 6... More of what's below could be on the face of the GFS again, especially if the upcoming ECM shows a similar pattern as the GEM / UKMO