SE Blizzards

Yep, looks like the ECM 12Z has ditched its earlier idea of High Pressure. Not really a surprise as High Pressure now a days is as rare as rocking horse s***

Why is the GFS the 'main model'?

You can view todays ECM 12Z here. Just updating now... out to 120h http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

Just a reminder of what March can bring if things fall into place. Last year for example... It couldn't happen again could it, nearly a year to the day? Tonights 18Z below... Cold uppers approaching from the North East. Oh well, we live in hope

That would be the the last day of winter (cough). An Easterly appearing at day 10 on the ECM with uppers above freezing. A final kick in the balls for all us coldies! Roll on Winter 2014/15!!!

Hi alexisj9 Every night the midnight one is always wrong for some reason on that website. Not sure why, but it could be something to do with lack of data or something. Wind outside is absolutely horrendous here. Constant 60mph - 70mph gusts! Another night without sleep Oh the joys of living near the coast on nights like this...

Yep, GEM finishes with -6 to -8 uppers UK wide.

Dec, Jan, Feb, Nov, Mar, Oct, Sept, Apr, May, Aug, July, June.

Erm, i'll have a pint of whatever the control run has been drinking tonight. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=1&carte=1 A slight outlier

A message to all Coldies... Don't give up, there's still time

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I don't get the time to post on here much, but just wanted to say that i regularly read this thread and there are some fantastic members on this forum. It's without doubt the best forum there is. It's been a great day with regards to the models, most seem to be trending colder, (apart from the wretched GFS) and hopefully we will all get to see some of the magical white stuff that we all so crave over the next 7 - 10 days. We certainly deserve to see some, and surely even the mildies wouldn't begrudge us coldies a little snow as we've all suffered long enough with this mild wet horrible Atlantic onslaught.. Let's all hope we see some significant upgrades tomorrow. But in the meantime, whatever you do.... Do not tell your friends and family a cold/snowy spell is on it's way !!

Yep, GEFS suite out to 240 now, and they look nice and pretty cold to me They do go a little pear-shaped after that though.

A quick question summer sun... Did you read IF's post saying models in these situations are sometimes over progressive with the breakdown of any cold weather coming from the East? I really would take chart's 144h and beyond with bucket loads, if not lorry loads, of salt (the same salt that's probably going to be needed to grit all the roads next week)

What a great day of model watching it's been. The best of the winter so far by a country mile. The mildies have had it all their own way so far this winter but hopefully now this is all about to change and us coldies, who let's face it have been patient enough, can have some enjoyment and look forward to a decent cold spell possibly setting up in the not so distant future. Nothing is set in stone as of yet but things are starting to look good. Here's to much more upgrades tomorrow. And lets all hope that we start seeing scene's like this come next week.

Those are the 12z's But looking at the 18z Ens there seems to be many Easterly options in there. Looks to me like a big step in the right direction. And the control run is an absolute cracker! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=348&mode=0&carte=0

Not sure if the CFS is at all reliable to be honest, have found that out for myself over time, however it will be interesting to see if the CFS is far off the money or not with its latest 1 month run (6z) as it has quite a cold spell for the UK lasting for several days starting from around the 11th January. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=144&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

But way way better than the wretched GFS. The potential on that chart is for all to see.

Hi Glenn. Agreed. I was just commenting on the 111h chart that i posted that's all. There certainly wasn't what i would call a 'Real' HP over Greenland at that time, but yes, heights were steadily building, and like u say, always the chance in FI that the Arctic High could move over towards the Greenland area later on. Anyway, lots of weather to get through before then with the possibility of 2 storms over the xmas period. Better move on now before we get told off.

I think that's just a surface HP pip, although someone can correct me if i'm wrong.

Storm 2 incoming

Northern Atlantic satellite now clearly showing the incoming storm starting to develop Time in top right hand corner of map is NYC time http://www.accuweather.com/en/northern-atlantic/satellite

915mb...

Viewing it on Wetterzentrale it's actually 930mb, or even slightly lower than that

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=20&month=12&hour=0&year=1995&map=4&mode=2