SE Blizzards

Can't wait to hear Frosty's analysis of the GFS 12Z. I feel a bit of a ramp coming up...

You can view the rest of the 12z run here... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Yes Gavin, indeed the High does topple over the UK again as you suggested as seen in the pic below... But at least the coldies amongst us have a little bit of potential in the output - Something we've not had for quite some time.

Yes, it seems to be stuck at 192h. The Model has most probably crashed due to the incoming cold from the North lol Edit: SS beat me to it.

Did someone order a Northerly? GEM and GFS certainly have potential for cold to develop...

Today's CFS 12Z yet again maintains it's upcoming winter/early spring blocking theme of recent weeks, with Feb and March in particular looking very nice indeed.

I was talking about the upcoming winter months, more especially jan/feb, and even march

Admittedly Gavin, there is no blocking being shown in the 'reliable' at present, but i would still rather be seeing regular occurring blocking winter charts that the CFS is showing than not seeing them, even if they are like u say 2+ months away. I think we all realize that at times long range models/forecasting is a bit of a mugs game, but like BFTV has said it has been very consistent in showing these blocked patterns and it has been most certainly a trend of recent weeks. Not even your mild self can deny that.

More blocked scenarios being churned out by the CFS for winter/early spring. A regular occurrence as of late.

A few bits of eye candy showing up on the 18z Ens in FI. Nothing spectacularly cold at this stage, but maybe the first signs of a few early winter seeds being planted.

Have to say i'm in total agreement that the back end of November will bring a shock to the system. Watching out for a pattern change just after mid month

We have our very first -10 of the season showing up on the Ens. Hopefully the first of many many more over the next few coming weeks/months

Nope, i'm there with ya all the way on this one. It's not every day, or night in this case when there's a 'chance' of a severe weather event happening, and i want to be awake if or when it happens. If it don't happen then i'm sure there will be many other opportunities to stay awake throughout the night in winter

It was meant as a joke actually.... One that u obviously missed? Of course, nobody knows whats going to happen yet, but indications are it isn't going to be as bad as first feared. But only time will tell.

This is all been a bit of a storm in a tea-cup if u ask me.

GFS 12Z wants to bring in another storm to the UK next weekend...

1987: Met Office forecast no storm. Hours later huge storm hits UK ! 2013: Met Office forecast huge storm. Hours later no storm hits UK ? ...Wouldn't that be ironic.

Sky news getting in on the act now. Hurricane alert? http://news.sky.com/story/1159525/weather-storm-alerts-as-uk-set-for-hurricane http://news.sky.com/story/1159179/hurricane-speed-winds-threaten-britain

And just to balance things out the North East seeing the lowest uppers at -4, which sadly for you is near to your neck of the woods. Last winter we saw the cold take a big bite out of the first couple of months of spring. I just wonder after seeing today's output that it could be that this winter takes a big bite out of the last couple of months of Autumn?? Certainly seems at present that the coldies amongst us (not you gavin, obviously) are having to wait less and less time in between each winter. I also seem to remember that a few isolated places in the UK saw snow last October? Although i'm not 100% sure about that. I'm sure someone will correct me if i'm wrong Maybe some snow again for this October? ...I certainly wouldn't rule that out at present after the developments over the last few days. Whatever happens this winter, the anticipation and expectation is certainly building.

Ah yes, but would you not agree that there is the possibility on some of the earlier time frames of the ECM that something colder could develop too? Anyway, its all speculation at present. I'm sure it will all look different tomorrow, it usually does.

Hi Gavin. If you are pinning your hopes on milder air 'possibly' moving towards the UK on a 240h chart then good luck on that one. I don't think i have ever seen a 240h chart verify? Have u?

Frost alert!! That's a bit more like it, and it's how Autumn should be imo.

UKMO also has support (for what it's worth) from the latest CFS run. UKMO... CFS... As u can see, very identical. Will be an interesting ECM coming up... SE Blizzards

SHOCK HORROR... Someone backing the NAVGEM over the ECM? Headline news for sure!

LOL, mild air into the SW ....a full 5 days later than first forecast!