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pdiddy

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Posts posted by pdiddy

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Steven morrison said:

    afternoon lads and lassies ,I am a lurker but fascinated by the comments ,although I don't understand much of what is said I am in the learning process.

    can I ask when is the next big run of models that will nail down the anticipated scenario ?

    probably (if and) when all models converge on a very similar evolution at T144

    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

    Would anyone be able to help? I’m trying to look at historical red snow warnings from the met office for Scotland. Specifically to see what’s been the highest snow totals ever forecast.

    I vaguely remember one within the last 5/10 years or so. I think it was for NE Scotland for up to 80cm’s of snow. And if memory serves reports came in of huge totals. 

    Any ideas or am I losing it in my old age lol. 

    There have been a couple for Edinburgh:

    - 2010, after the main dumping where we actually didn't have that much, despite the warning

    - BFTE when we did get a fair bit

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Isn't it strange how we have very few Scottish members. Maybe they just get it every year so it's no big deal. It does look like a white one there

    There are quite a few of us... just that it has been somewhat less marginal for snow for us recently, so can simply look out of the window!  I do see a lot of comments suggesting "snowmageddon for Scotland" etc. when a Northerly is modeled, but that rarely delivers for Edinburgh and Glasgow, just  the far North and coasts.  And it doesn't snow here every year either, just to dispel the myths.

    Anyway, the models showing potential battleground along the boundary of mild and colder air.  Potentially cold enough for wintry weather, but nothing spectacular in my opinion.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, mathematician said:

    I hope I'm very wrong here, but I don't see much precipitation with these synoptics.

     

    I'm afraid we will see cold weather, hard frosts but not much in terms of snow.

     

    Like I said if I'm proved wrong I'd be the happiest.

    models aren't showing much for today, yet in Edinburgh it has been raining on and off all morning.  I think it's one area the models really struggle

    • Like 4

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by pdiddy

    45 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

    I suspect that like myself there are many others who have been model watching for many years on here that were seeing the literally thousands of posts in the last week and thinking the same thing. Indeed even more so given the divergence in output  
     

    Once you accept less than T+96 with cross model agreement as the number 1 rule in winter and ignore all these boom posts at t+168 etc from the usual suspects it gets much easier !

    Yup.  cross model agreement and run to run agreement.  Yet we have people literally criticising the programming of the models, before the weather has actually happened... so I'll take my own advice and wait for the the next runs.

    • Like 2

    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, asjmcguire said:

    @Dundeeguy The Met Office would have a red warning out AND the transport system would be shut down if there was a dusting expected in London.

    That year that it snowed in London in November, the transport systems did actually shut down, I remember watching the news astonished that the busses had stopped running - and you could still see the white lines on the road!

    I flew down to London from Edinburgh for a meeting and I was the only one in the office as the buses and trams had stopped running!

    • Like 5

    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Dundeeguy said:

    Don’t really know what to say, met office would be all over it with a red warning if this was south east England, 31cm outside my house and still falling , most main roads undriveable,

    I think this is the point.  there was a red for the central belt in 2010, but only after we had 30cm in Edinburgh!

    • Like 5
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