[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

heavy snow here now.  I think North Berwick and Gullane are the targets, so we need the showers crossing there on the way in... Dunbar showers may now miss us to the South!

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

12 minutes ago, 101_North said:

That blob between North Berwick and Dunbar has taken on a little more interest in the last 15mins or so. 

Yes, it will test my theory!

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

I think you are right. I misjudged the orientation 

I think we need them to arrive between Dunbar and North Berwick for the "bullseye"

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

flakes in the wind and bright sunshine in Morningside.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

pretty bullish week ahead from the Shaf... suggesting the cold wins out and high pressure builds again to the North/Scandi

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

showers are really lining up now @JoeShmoe... bring it on

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, doctormog said:

Just had a decent snow shower here in the city (as opposed to the earlier graupel). Hopefully there will be a few more of these showers coming in off the sea in the coming hours. Hard to tell from the radar and satellite imagery but it is a possibility.

You deserve some of the white stuff this season, Doc; it's been in short supply!

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

3 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

You would think there will be convergence zones, embedded troughs etc which I guess the UKV doesn’t pick up / model well ? Just depends where they set up as to who gets hit the hardest but you’d have to be unlucky to miss out I’d have thought. Wind ought to be strong enough to push these well inland as well

if the ECM verifies wales and the midlands will be getting hammered from battleground snow from the SW

 

 

Had the discussion about convergence lines yesterday.  Shown on the fax here:

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

@Kirkcaldy Weather

found this on the interweb:

https://www.northavimet.com/NamConWS/rest/document/sigwx_help

regarding "troughs with arms"

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Best of luck @LomondSnowstorm with the exam and @Blitzen with your dog. 

Those are barbed troughs

Thanks - what are they?

I was going from this:

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

2 hours ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

As long as it remains a ENE flow as Edinburgh would miss out if it turns more ESE we would be relying on troughs in the flow otherwise

But looks very promising

this shows what I think is a convergence line to our East, which may help

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

interesting the weather warnings for later in the week are "severe" for impact and "low" for likelihood.  I can see that getting upgraded nearer the time *if* the ECM is correct!

 

@CatchMyDrift beat me to it!!

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

precipitation  type = rain persisting here in Edinburgh

[Potential for a cold easterly to develop this weekend, but model chaos agreeing on it]

Dog walk update.  Started with rain at 6.30, as the precip got heavier and I gained a little altitude, so sleet started.  At Fairmilehead it was briefly blizzard conditions, with snow settling readily.  Back down in to Morningside and precip eased off and it returned to sleet then rain.  My summary is a wintry mix for Edinburgh today, with snow to low levels in the heavier bursts.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

BBC have changed from 2c and sleet to 1c and snow for Edinburgh tomorrow morning

 

and then immediately changed it back again!

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Allyw12 said:

I was feeling more optimistic after reading @LomondSnowstorm posts earlier.  Then I saw the bbc week ahead looks like it’s mostly rain for us in Perth  

the BBC WA was bust as of yesterday as was completely based on flawed 0z ECM yesterday.  Wait for tonight's!

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

check out the strength of that Easterly!!

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

What a forecast and week to be in Scotland in you’re a snow lover. Looks like parts of the NE will get relentless snow throughout the week. Lots of others doing well too. I might rent a chair in this thread for the next week if that’s ok

 

Plenty of cold rain and face-stinging sleet for many of us initially.  Must admit that the look ahead to the weekend and next week looks much more promising on this vid.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

10 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Just watching the radar and it's been interesting that for most of the day so far the echoes, even over the immediate coast, have been showing as snow north of the Forth but rain and sleet south. No idea what that means for later today and the rest of the week. Just an observation when I should really be working  

 

I'm not holding out much hope... we are just the wrong side of marginal this time, I think. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Steven morrison said:

So as a newbie,can I ask is it time to start greasing the runners on the sledge or not? There seems much rollercoaster stuff going on in the models forum however my go to is here where it’s local

love reading all the threads

cheers

All a bit marginal, I think.  Likely to see snow to low levels at times (especially so inland, so better news for you).  More likely to be wintry mix for me.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Lol.  "if the Met do their forecast based on the GFS 06z, blah blah blah". 

The fact that there are significant changes run to run explains exactly why the corporations wouldn't do that.  Also, it's sometimes informative to compare the previous 06z to this one, rather than focusing on changes from run to run.  Very happy with this so far:

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Interesting that the yellow warning seems to exclude Edinburgh, but the narrative detail includes the city?:

SW Scotland, Lothian Border

Dumfries and Galloway

East Lothian

Edinburgh

Midlothian Council

Scottish Borders

West Lothian

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

heavy rain in Morningside, with some sleet mixed in.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

I'm guessing the MetO will have another fail with this latest system @JoeShmoe  Let's see what tonight and tomorrow brings.

Longer term remains of interest with any number of possibilities (Easterly/Scandi High, GH Block, wedges etc.  In fact the only option I haven't seen is full on zonal.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

12 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Given the heavy snow falling now in the NW of England the meto have got this badly wrong ... they missed last nights snow too. Not their finest hour this week 

spot on Joe.  Proper shambles.  The warnings are mince too.