pdiddy
-
Posts
233 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by pdiddy
-
-
Afternoon all. Heading to Moray Firth for New Year and pleased to see a Northerly in the forecast. I'll be right on the coast though (Lossiemouth) - any local views on whether it will likely be rain snow or something in between in that cold air?
Thanks
-
A negative PNA (Pacific/North American) tends to suggest a Scandi Block, with heights rising to North East:
-
6
-
-
RIP Ian McCaskill... sad to see he's passed away.
Models hinting at the illusive easterly at the end of the month...
-
8
-
-
5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
I'm afraid, to my eyes, the trend appears to be simply a high degree of ensemble spread rather than a height increase.
yes, but Spread all above average though (only one member below after 23rd)?
-
Greenland 850s trending upwards from the 19th...
-
4
-
-
Good to see the (Aberdeen) ensembles showing some colder options. In fact c50% of the members have a Greenland/Iceland/Scandi high scenario leading to cold at the end of the run. Of the others there are 3 that are close but no cigar. It's the consistency between those outcomes that drive the cold that is interesting, with heights ridging to the North. Some very interesting model watching to come.
-
try the GFS parallel for those in need:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Another hopeless 6z gfs if its cold and snow you want - very strong jet coming out the states, difficult to see anything good coming from this run....
I'm not sure it's finished yet... in any case, the ensembles would be where I would go for the trends as individual runs are meaningless at this stage.
-
3
-
-
Regarding upgrades/downgrades, always worth looking at the runs independently, i.e. 12z to 12z and 0z to 0z to see how the synoptics evolve.
-
4
-
-
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:
Quite simply, when we are looking at building blocks for a cold pattern, the last thing we want to throw in is an ex hurricane. IMO. Can change everything.
Otto looks to be heading to the Pacific... so don't think there will be a direct impact on any Atlantic driven cold spell. Perhaps some second order impacts on jet to West of US?
-
2
-
-
36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Full support for GFS from control and ENS at 180....That with the GEM I say ECM is wrong - optimistic obviously
great mean
Not full support... roughly 1/3 of GEFS fail to link the two highs (although a few have a messier evolution that ends up with higher heights to NW).
-
9 hours ago, weirpig said:
No but the Cfs is mild winters over
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1410&mode=0&carte=1&run=0
This CFS, you mean?
-
1
-
-
Looking at some of the GEFS, I suspect there will be a fair few different colder options, ranging from the Scandi high to another Greenland effort. Alas, not as cold as it looked!
-
3
-
-
39 minutes ago, knocker said:
Re the MetO probabilities, If one assigns the xs where they fall in the scale, you get:
"Very Warm" 8% chance
Warm 17%
average 14%
cold 31%
very cold 29%
I'm sure the weighted average of those would also point to a much colder outcome than is being suggested
-
9
-
-
Easterly incoming on the ECM...
-
2
-
-
9 minutes ago, mulzy said:
Yep - flat and zonal is the theme (as you were!)
At least we have a few frosts to salvage something from the wreckage of this winter.
Not to self: Only trust any output up to day 4 (96 hours) and even then only if there is cross-model support - treat everything else as indicative only.
Not sure I understand that... If you're saying don't trust anything beyond 4 days, the next 4 days aren't zonal are they?
-
3
-
-
8 hours ago, Jimmyh said:
Sorry pdiddy yes I guess imbyism is coming into play where the most populated part of the country is concerned. I didn't think my post was that imbyism I call it as I see it. Let's hope the winds are further south as we don't want this here.
On weather front models still going for wot could turn into damaging winds.
No worries!
I think we can all hope for downgrades to the excessive wind and rain. GFS throws out some eye-candy for coldies at the end of the run:
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
3 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:also bear in mind what has been said by Fergie that it is not all about the snow and ice hitting us as it is the permutation of the south being hit by one of these barrel storms. 2013/2014 was hell down here not had a storm so bad this winter but I know that we are due one.
All of the models are pointing towards a nasty spell of weather and it is now within the timeframe of it hitting
There's a lot of IMBYism going on here... Central Scotland has had 80mph winds twice in the last week, but we should now get excited because it's the South?
Anyway, back on topic, jet sinks further South, models twitching about the SSW and the MetO talking of a colder spell mid-month. Models also showing some more wet and windy weather to come... Interesting model weatching indeed.
-
14
-
Joe B refers to an Icelandic block, and that could deliver cold here.
-
agree with some of the comments here that this time next week is key if we are to see a pattern change.
Greenland shows some hints of warmer 850s, but a rather large spread drags the average down a little thereafter. Hopefully by the end of this weekend, there is more clarity.
-
1
-
-
Somehow the ECM plucks a repeat performance out of the locker - T168-T216 see yet another northerly behind a trough from the NW. Well it was the first onto this weekend's cold snap ... will have to wait to see if has got cold snap no.2 correct as well!
I believe GFS was on to it first, showing height rises to NW, whilst ECM has performed better overall, verification wise
-
Well this looks like it's going to be a little different
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0
Northerly incoming!
yep.different just the 40mb drop in pressure on the atlantic low in 18 hours then. Nevermind "dartboard", that's a black hole! don't see a Northerly yet though
-
an odd looking jet profile...
...and can't be easy for the models to decipher.
-
99/100 it will sink south though (bartlett territory)
99/100? So we just got lucky in 2009 and 2010 and shouldn't, by your statistical probablility, have another for 200 years? In any case, the high slipping South would not be a Bartlett. The high could just as easily move West leaving us in the colder flow - this to me is just as likely as heading South.
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by pdiddy
ensemble average stays lower