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pdiddy

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Everything posted by pdiddy

  1. pdiddy
    ensemble average stays lower
  2. pdiddy
    Afternoon all. Heading to Moray Firth for New Year and pleased to see a Northerly in the forecast. I'll be right on the coast though (Lossiemouth) - any local views on whether it will likely be rain snow or something in between in that cold air? Thanks
  3. pdiddy
    A negative PNA (Pacific/North American) tends to suggest a Scandi Block, with heights rising to North East: http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PNA.html
  4. pdiddy
    RIP Ian McCaskill... sad to see he's passed away. Models hinting at the illusive easterly at the end of the month...
  5. pdiddy
    yes, but Spread all above average though (only one member below after 23rd)?
  6. pdiddy
    Greenland 850s trending upwards from the 19th...
  7. pdiddy
    Good to see the (Aberdeen) ensembles showing some colder options. In fact c50% of the members have a Greenland/Iceland/Scandi high scenario leading to cold at the end of the run. Of the others there are 3 that are close but no cigar. It's the consistency between those outcomes that drive the cold that is interesting, with heights ridging to the North. Some very interesting model watching to come.
  8. pdiddy
    try the GFS parallel for those in need: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1
  9. pdiddy
    I'm not sure it's finished yet... in any case, the ensembles would be where I would go for the trends as individual runs are meaningless at this stage.
  10. pdiddy
    Regarding upgrades/downgrades, always worth looking at the runs independently, i.e. 12z to 12z and 0z to 0z to see how the synoptics evolve.
  11. pdiddy
    Otto looks to be heading to the Pacific... so don't think there will be a direct impact on any Atlantic driven cold spell. Perhaps some second order impacts on jet to West of US?
  12. pdiddy
    Not full support... roughly 1/3 of GEFS fail to link the two highs (although a few have a messier evolution that ends up with higher heights to NW).
  13. pdiddy
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1410&mode=0&carte=1&run=0 This CFS, you mean?
  14. pdiddy
    Looking at some of the GEFS, I suspect there will be a fair few different colder options, ranging from the Scandi high to another Greenland effort. Alas, not as cold as it looked!
  15. pdiddy
    Re the MetO probabilities, If one assigns the xs where they fall in the scale, you get: "Very Warm" 8% chance Warm 17% average 14% cold 31% very cold 29% I'm sure the weighted average of those would also point to a much colder outcome than is being suggested
  16. pdiddy
    Easterly incoming on the ECM...
  17. pdiddy
    Not sure I understand that... If you're saying don't trust anything beyond 4 days, the next 4 days aren't zonal are they?
  18. pdiddy
    No worries! I think we can all hope for downgrades to the excessive wind and rain. GFS throws out some eye-candy for coldies at the end of the run:
  19. pdiddy
    There's a lot of IMBYism going on here... Central Scotland has had 80mph winds twice in the last week, but we should now get excited because it's the South? Anyway, back on topic, jet sinks further South, models twitching about the SSW and the MetO talking of a colder spell mid-month. Models also showing some more wet and windy weather to come... Interesting model weatching indeed.
  20. pdiddy
    Joe B refers to an Icelandic block, and that could deliver cold here.
  21. pdiddy
    agree with some of the comments here that this time next week is key if we are to see a pattern change. Greenland shows some hints of warmer 850s, but a rather large spread drags the average down a little thereafter. Hopefully by the end of this weekend, there is more clarity.
  22. pdiddy
    I believe GFS was on to it first, showing height rises to NW, whilst ECM has performed better overall, verification wise
  23. pdiddy
    yep.different just the 40mb drop in pressure on the atlantic low in 18 hours then. Nevermind "dartboard", that's a black hole! don't see a Northerly yet though
  24. pdiddy
    an odd looking jet profile... ...and can't be easy for the models to decipher.
  25. pdiddy
    99/100? So we just got lucky in 2009 and 2010 and shouldn't, by your statistical probablility, have another for 200 years? In any case, the high slipping South would not be a Bartlett. The high could just as easily move West leaving us in the colder flow - this to me is just as likely as heading South.
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