Jaffusmaximus

It defiantly does not look mild to me either! I have also yet to see sustained mild reaching these islands on the models and only brief flirts with plus 5 uppers. Looking wet and cold for a period, but for most a swing either way would be most welcome, that being either dry and mild or cold and dry. After this seasons model watching my confidence in any thing past t120 is very low especially on the GFS, but I do feel (no proof though) that the fat lady should be left to clear her throat in March and that is why I am reserving judgment on the SSW tropospheric effect until then. I see here that the brave wish to call Feb now as the glory would be great in doing so but there is still the potential for egg on the face if we get a Greenland high popping up soon and it being attributed to SSW. The post mortem on this winter is going to be very interesting but that can only be done when the winter has finally croaked it. This has been my first model watching season and have learned alot from both sides of the arguments here, thx all. But the stand out thing for me has been how hard it is to find the glimmer of hope in models for cold, compared to how much easier it is to see mild/zonal in them. So much like a forensic detective I have have been trying to look beyond the models,investigate and broaden my own knowledge to make my own call and not follow some exuberant comments of others that can sidetrack. I might get it right someday myself!

The ECM would not agree, shows tentative signs of height rises in the North Atlantic

Will here is an Irish History lesson about the Oiche Gaoithe Mor (Night of the Big Wind) Jan 1839 "The storm attained a very low barometric pressure of 918hectopascals (27.1 inHg) and tracked eastwards to the north of Ireland, bringing winds gusts of over 100 knots (185 km/h, 115 mph) to the south before moving across the north of England and onto the European continent where it eventually died out. At the time, it was the most damaging Irish storm for 300 years." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind

Could someone please post a link to GP's and RJS forecast for Feb, would be much appreciated!

But could this be beneficial for Feb in that it leaves room for heights to build? Or will the process just eat into the remainder of winter?

I know its in FI but the GEM has developed this earlier.

Hi there. Where can I read his full forecast?

Could the SSW break up a block?

Messy is good! I like messy! Like dropping a glass bowl to the floor in slow motion all we can do is wait to see where the pieces will fall and settle!

Is there such a thing as " Model Downgrade Ramping "? I have not seen a hint of zonal in any runs, so that must be the good thing?

Are you a day-tripper out for a walk around an asylum to gawk at the inmates?

The models are good enough! Of course things won't stay that way forever but for those claiming it woud be mild throughout the winter they will now have more of a challenge calling an end to this cold period, but we all already know things will get mild in spring anyway!

True we will have all kind of charts in FI popping, its best not get too hung up on them until they are within the reliable timeframe then we can expect mild incursions and blocking break downs!

I can honestly see from the models a transitional period that has not yet revealed itself in its entirety. To claim we will be in the freezer or basking in mildness soon at this stage would be premature until another couple of runs roll in. It does surprise me to see how some grasp onto one run and want to hoist their flag over it claiming it verifies their own opinions this leaves the potential for big climb downs!

Same as was mentioned above, GP suggested that solar output may have had a negative effect on the outcome of the last Dec possible cold spell. So what I am highlighting is that the winter 1947 took place during a year of increased solar activity but as they say the rest is history.

1947 was slap bang in the middle of a Solar Max year. http://www.google.ie/imgres?um=1&hl=en&safe=off&tbo=d&biw=1517&bih=741&tbm=isch&tbnid=NQYbcobVThTntM:&imgrefurl=http://www.climate4you.com/Sun.htm&docid=8AACqO_b9RPpYM&imgurl=http://www.climate4you.com/images/SIDC%252520DailySunspotNumberSince1900.gif&w=880&h=434&ei=KzroUM6KGsewhAeAs4DoBQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=392&vpy=143&dur=1214&hovh=157&hovw=320&tx=131&ty=78&sig=112560139402265891678&page=1&tbnh=133&tbnw=272&start=0&ndsp=30&ved=1t:429,r:2,s:0,i:88

Not quite right regarding steady, there is one sunspot with enough energy to unleash a massive solar flare that could have a potential impact, other than that yes very quite! http://spaceweather.com/

Yeah fair dues Ian, over the water here on RTE our national broadcaster, one of the weather ladies warned of people not to be reading much into what we read on the Internet regarding the weather! First time I heard the weather was only for an elite bunch whom can only read the signs in the sky's! It's great you feel comfortable to provide input here and that those whom read it are mature enough to take your honest opinions and make their own minds up using fair and in unbiased information.

Quick question, if we got a substantial SSW mid Jan would there be enough winter left to get a good spell of cold over our Islands?

Then get the sunscreen out! What else!

His "record" on weather prediction (especially cold winters) is apparently spot on! Basically while on his post rounds if he sees a badger mauling a hedgehog then KABLAM cold winter on the way as the hunger is about.

Our Irish Seer and Coldie Hero has some news for Ye! http://www.donegaldaily.com/2012/12/11/donegals-famous-amateur-weatherman-gives-60-chance-of-white-christmas/

Even better! many thx

Does any kind gentleman on here have a link to where I can view up to date NAO -/+ charts

Thanks for the above posts. Although I'm very new to model viewing there has been an obvious tendency for the models to keep pulling the PV together during last week and to keep pushing for a milder set up. I guess that's where experience and knowledge comes into it when reading more into what is dished up by the models.