Jaffusmaximus

How quickly could the PV reform itself and how far out would you see it if it was to happen. I'm asking as from what I read if it reforms that puts us right back to square one for a cold set up.

Could one of the pros tell me at what time + on a chart is (especially GFS) not worth reading much into. And rank the charts in order of most likely to be close to being accurate .

Yes but the models keep throwing out potential, personally I'd prefer at least two months of below average temps with few days of very cold then one week of really below temps. The pure muck of a winter last year broke my fragile little heart!

We really need to see what happens to the blocking high after it gets attacked from the west. Once the dust settles there will be so many different ways this could go, seeing as all the pieces are still in play for the the block could come back quickly and stronger than before. Things are actually going in the right direction if we would prefer a stronger NE feed as we still need time out in Siberia to allow it to build up enough cold to feed us. Has anyone doubting any cold snap looked further than this weekend?

The general consensus among a lot of long range forecasters was basically cold to mild but below temp then onto an even colder period from the start of dec to before Xmas. That in its self is a far cry from the pitifully boring winter of last year!

“ [T]here are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that, we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know. †— United States Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld

I'm not giving up on a cold snap until after t96 and if the blocking breaks down after that point. Fact is its still holding its own at the moment, plus there are differing views from various models regarding the viability of the block, so I guess its an unbiased 50/50 at this stage. If come Thursday the Atlantic breaks through then I will modify my personal expectations for.

I have an addictive personality and now chart watching has become my latest vice since I cannot afford to bet on the horses.

If I were to build a model I would have it programmed to favour allowing lows to smash through any blocking as that would be a typical scenario. The only way to prevent my system constantly breaking through a high would be to keep pumping data into it until it gets to grips with a change in norm. So then the question is how much data is needed or how much closer to the projected time of a cold snap would be required. So in the next few runs either all models will have to align or we will just have to wait till Thursdays runs.