Snowy Liverpool
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Posts posted by Snowy Liverpool
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I'm guessing this system is still a long way from hitting peak intensity? It's starting to weaken inland.
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If this is even half the event of December 1st 2010, I'll be very happy, that was the best convection event I can remember.
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Think I might be just too far west here in leeds city center for the heaviest stuff, but still those tiny powder flakes are coming down nicely. A good 5-6cm when I went to Hyde Park earlier.
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Good agreement on the AO to shoot up in around 7-10 days. Statosphere forecasts also suggest the polar stratosphere to cool down to average for this time of year. I always thought there was a considerable lag phase between the two events, but the AO at tropospheric level seems to be following the stratospheric conditions at a lag phase of just a few days and it's beginning to show in the models e.g. some going for a breakdown of cold as early as 6-7 days away. Is it really going to be this quick?
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Spamming this, sorry! Last one!
My prediction for Yorkshire and North Lincs- the further west, the best- but the NY Moors and most of the Pennines should see lots as well. Over 5cm widespread, and a lot of convection for the east.
This is for tomorrow. Expect Saturday and Sunday to be more fruitful for North Lincs and North Yorks/East Yorks.
Watch the MetO and BBC forecasts/warnings though- in intense situations like this, they are vital.
Purple circle over Leeds, perfect
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We employ combination of UKMO-GM, NAE, UK4 & UKV to assess snow amount likelihoods, alongside MOGREPS & EC ENS snow prob charts to cross-reference areal probability. I've never seen GFS cited in any such analyses on regional/sub-regional snow amounts. I've never heard anything positive in views re it's snow prog algorithm, but in any event, the topographic simulation & emulation of orographic enhancement etc from UK4 & UKV is vastly superior anyway.
Hi Ian, so if I'm reading this correct should the GFS and NAE precipitation forecasts be treated with a lot of skepticism? Where is the eastern extent of the front according to your models?
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A nice little patch of heavier snow approaching Leeds+Bradford now.
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Still nothing here in Leeds city center, or if there is it can't be seen even with lampposts.
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The main band appears to be developing over the Irish Sea, and it's more in line with the forecasts in terms of timing. Let's hope it makes a better attempt at crossing the Pennines than the other one that failed miserably.
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wouldnt this front `pep` up a little as it crosses the pennines into the colder air ?
Pennines usually do the opposite to fronts unfortunately.
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Eastward shift as early as t6. Good news for the west, but absolutely ridiculous how little accuracy the models have had recently.
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-5 850hpa temps have been pushed further southeast again. Even more marginal now.
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This is why we have had the alterations with Mondays event.
A mild sector passes over southern & western quarter of the UK, increasing the WBFL. This turns all PPN away from silly elevations to sleet and rain. Snowfall isn't just about 850hpa and thickness levels, if it were we would be fine on Monday. This is another ingredient that unfortunetly isn't playing ball for some of us.
Surely the other 90% of the parameters being fine away from the southwest cancels that out by a fair amount?
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UKMO says yes to the undercut as well. Great result tonight!
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Slight eastward shift on this one, might affect the snow chances on Monday. Shortwave is further south though.
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I still think the models are overdoing any low pressures directly to our North. I know the topospheric vortex only follows a similar, not exact path to the stratospheric vortex, but too many runs have been very keen in closing the area to our North off with lows.
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A bit of a worry that ECM and GFS have no heights over Greenland after the shortwave drama is sorted. Still that's miles in FI and is not worth anything as it's so likely to change.
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This could be another Jan5th 2010, loving the orientation of the fronts, especially the 2nd one.
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Again we have that pesky shortwave from the low to the west of Greenland trying to move to Iceland and link up above us rather than below. Just as we sort one shortwave problem out another one pops up.
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That shortwave is definitely a bit more south than on the 06z. Now it just depends on where the Atlantic low and the shortwave link up.
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I know its been said many times but what time exactly starts the GFS? And what time will be the key time T96? Thank you and sorry for my ignorance
3.30pm, key time will be 72-120 imo which will be around 3.50-4.10pm, to see if the shortwave moves southeast and to see if we get an undercut.
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Poleward flux forecast looking great today, almost there.
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Ah UKMO giving us problems now, not too keen on an undercut. We're not going to get cross-model agreement on this until t00 are we?
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The GFS is finally getting its act together and bringing the cold air back by T144 as the shortwaves finally begin heading South.
Further uncertainties to start today with then with the GFS causing further shortwave problems. Very, very poor consistency, why the GFS is considered a top model is beyond me to be honest.
These shortwave problems are 5-6 days out to be fair. ECM and UKMO have them scattered all over the place as well.
Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
It's suddenly picked up here, some decent sized flakes too