[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

Screw it I've been wating a month for this bloody easterly to happen I'm willing to take the hit for 4-5 days if it means the PV goes away and frees Greenland up as shown on the 06z.

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

Well at least the high is moving west. I'm guessing Greenland belongs to High pressure after that PV moves away.

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

Lol in true GFS fashion we get the weakest looking shortwave ever just cutting across a massive high pressure as if it isn't even there...

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

There's a shift sownwest in jthe weak high, but the siberian high is a bit further North, might explain why the link up is taking longer. Oh well, the further west the better, as long as the low moves south with no strong shortwaves behind it the block will form.

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

yeah things are further west but heights are also a bit further south too, i will wait till the rest of the run finishes before judging though

Only because the PV is moving along the top of the high to Siberia, freeing up Greenland for height rises. Temps would till be good enough for snow.

Shame about yet another disgraceful UKMO run though. The Atlantic is over us before the high has even reached us...

[North of England Regional Discussion]

Leeds will do great in a couple of weeks, by which time I'll be in Liverpool, one of the worst places for an easterly. It's just going to be one of those winters I guess Definitely going to be using this smiley a lot in the next couple of months.

[North of England Regional Discussion]

Leeds at the moment. Aaron it did intensify a bit, it's just that a gap in the ppn has appeared out of nowhere that's positioned itself directly above Leeds

[North of England Regional Discussion]

Snowing here, some of the lightest snow ever plus flakes are tiny

[North of England Regional Discussion]

Doubt there will be much precipitation here let alone in Merseyside.

Yup been lampost watching so much my eyes are starting to hurt. Still nothing .

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

Anyone know where this front is coming from? Is it the one thats bringing ppn over the midlands/southwest England or is there one further North?

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

Oh lord, snowmageddon for the south at 240

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

That Greenland High just makes everything so much easier.

[Model Output Discussion 12z 04/12/2012]

ECM looking far too close for comfort and most of the UK is stuck in no-mans land with cool temperatures and not quite cold enough for snow, which imo is worse than raging zonal. Hope is the biggest disappointment. GFS has the UK quite comfortably under the influence of the high Plus ECM refuses to show any high pressure over Greenland, if that continues the scandi high will be pushed away in no time. At least the trend is still there, but a shift west is needed.

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

Yeah, awful.

/sarcasm

Except for the fact that the poor synoptics are in the reliable time frame and the fantasy synoptics are in the unreliable timeframe, which has been the theme for the last 4 weeks.

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

what is the ECM like??

A return to southwesterlies. No doubt this is just another "delay" and we'll eventually see our easterlies in April.

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

Hmm the low at 144 hrs looks a lot weaker and a bit stretched.not sure where this going again but very interesting!!!Plus the huge block to the north east is further west and building

Looking very similar to the ECM.

[North of England Regional Discussion]

Where about in Leeds are you Aiden

[North of England Regional Discussion]

Snow!!!!!!!

well might aswell go to bed its starting to rain

Well which is it lol or is it that marginal? :/

[North of England Regional Discussion]

Will it snow in Carlisle? The radar shows it just hitting now so we can find out.

Traffic scotland cams are showing snow around that area.

[North of England Regional Discussion]

0c here in Leeds. It's going to be close

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

A much weaker, almost nonexistent shortwave to the west of Norway on the ECM. I have a feeling that will be the key for a link up with the siberian high.

[Model Output Discussion: 12Z (02/12/12) And On...]

Could a greenland high be a possibility? heights are looking so much stronger on this run compared to the previous ones.

[North of England Regional Discussion]

As I just said, still temps of -1.9 here with dew point of -2.2 here 17 miles from Liverpool....

The temperature in Liverpool I'm not doubting as it's similar to the places around it. But the Leeds temp just doesn't make sense, it's 1c here compared to -1 or -2 in places pretty much to the north, east, south and west.

Edit: gone back down to 0 now at least

[North of England Regional Discussion]

The temperature in Leeds is soaring according to NOAA :/ Despite places east and west both being colder, including coastal towns such as Liverpool? Surely this can't be right?

[Model Output Discussion - 28th November]

Spot the difference with the 12z... I can't see many, not good for collides Hope the overnight runs smell the coffee and we can get some good Synoptics showing soon

I doubt there will be much change for next week. At least a more southerly tracking low is looking the most likely, with Northern areas remaining quite cold. After that the models are trending towards high pressure building near the UK which slows everything down and this could open up some doors for a block to develop. Still too soon to talk about that I think, need to get next monday's low pressure out of the way first.