SouthPennine88

Well then, as for Oldham, there has never been a snowless Winter since I was born.

You say that, although I don't think I have ever seen a snowless Winter here (or indeed somewhere in Northern England).

Talking about Sunday into Monday .. deffinate precipitation for many although rain probably just about favoured in comparison to tonight ... then of course rain for most on Monday with average highs of 8 in Liverpool, 6 in Manchester, 6 in Leeds and 5 in Newcastle. However, this will of course naturally contrast with 0-2'C at altitude ... with the threat of snowfall very much resuming as per normal from Sunday to Tuesday on the Peaks, the Pennines, the NYM etc ...

I do apologize, I don't have that much knowledge of Keighley/Skipton/Harrogate although thought they were rather prone to snow.

Not here ... 2 miles away on Saddleworth Moor. 4 and a half months. I have it down as a record since I was born

We'll just have to wait and see .. the MO quickly changed precipitation arriving at 2am to 5am. (as well as sleet to heavy snow). I might wake up at around 6-6:30 and I am around 60-80% sure I will see snow falling.

Or, I don't suppose your local golf club was closed from December 2009-April 2010 due to constant snow cover? Ours was. I doubt accumulations last very long in Durham.

I'm sorry to argue, but 2010 and 2009 was awesome every where, mate. Try living in Oldham or Buxton or Skipton, and you'll realize Durham isn't the snowiest of places ... Did you see snow on the ground from 17th December 2009 to 1st May 2010 everyday? I did ...

Heavy snow forecast for us in Saddleworth at 5am ... all go ahead for an accumulation to remain throughout the day! All seems possible, yet all seems so changeable between now and 6 hours away.

You have to also take into account variations locally though ... for example Oldham and Manchester are around 5 miles less apart and the weather between the two in terms of snowfall is enormous ... not to mention that if you go 3 miles west of Oldham, you reach those rather dreaded Pennine Hills.

Met Office update now changes the forecast tonight MASSIVELY! Heavy snow for me at 5am-6am right through, followed by a sleet shower at 7am. Bring it on! On a not so positive note, not the best of days for the Met Office who have gone from predicting rain overnight, to a light snow shower, to general sleet and now to a short burst of heavy snow, all in one day.

No, I mean the regional threads of the North of England, for example Yorkshire, NW England, NE etc ...

Still awaiting my income of precipitation! Fully expect snow at first, turning to sleet or rain around 4-7am (if the precipitation holds out by then).

I reverse my earlier comments about the fact 'there is nothing really cold and prolonged on the models, especially model agreement'.

I assume that is freezing rain rather than a boring old wetting ;P

You're right; Newcastle has very different weather to Liverpool, Manchester has very different weather to Hull, Blackpool has very different weather to Crewe and Buxton has very different weather to Skipton ... I think the 'very-regional' threads you were talking about though are only set up when there is widespread snow or widespread floods or gales.

I will hopefully have time to venture out into the Pennines tomorrow, where hopefully a white cover will greet me!

Just tried to put a valid discussion across on the model thread following on from a comment that CreweCold put in (we both opened up discussion on the possibility of less cold temperatures and not favouring a cold spell). Unfortunately, we were absolutely slaughtered by some rather biased other members. Anyway, not long now until precipitation should kick in .. question is, what will it fall as?! Thankfully, living only two miles away from the Pennines, I am 85% confident I will see a covering (despite maybe not my backyard) when I wake up tomorrow. Would be a perfect way to start the Winter with a covering on the first day! increasing signs for something similar to this weekend occurring Wednesday-Friday next week also ... roll it on! In between that, Monday and Tuesday look a bit messy, although I must point out, I have some worries for people wishing to travel over the Peaks, the Pennines, the Dales or the YNM anytime from tomorrow morning until Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday, whilst looking milder for almost everyone, will certainly not see temperatures high enough for rain on these locations, so I will be watching for closures of the Pennine Passes especially early next week.

But then again, I am a bit inexperienced and therefore have no standing on what I actually think will happen. Forget me if you must ..

As I say, you then have that nasty thing called the Vortex which may cause a huge panic for models.

It would be correct to write it off IMO. Based on the fact that despite conflicting models, you surely need at least one model that shows a constant decent signal for prolonged cold. If no models are suggesting this, no matter the inconsistency or conflictions, you have to say that it is pretty much not going to happen. In other words, on average, if the coldest model runs are pointing to something similar to what we are experiencing this weekend and the mildest models pointing to something like average temperatures ... then prolonged cold doesn't get covered in the scatter. That of course is just a sort of 'common sense' way of looking at it ... you then have to look at the 'background signals' and whatnot to challenge a model run. Of course though, you are always going to get the odd run that looks noteworthy but quickly gets written off in the next run (or by other conflicting models). Of course though, we all know that model flips can occur, and as someone pointed out earlier, we have seen it all before where by Monday for example, things could change to something much more colder (or milder ...)

I certainly remember it being one of the most severe of the decade so far apart from perhaps February/March 2005 and January/Feb 2003/04 came close also.

Should be able to get some good photo's on the tops.

There is a whole lot more to the North of England though than the rather flat area from Manchester-Cheshire-Merseyside in NW England. In the middle of the North, there are some large hills 600m ASL called the Pennines.

Hopefully the game will go ahead. As you said, pretty sure it most certainly will, especially given any accumulation is likely to thaw throughout the day ... I'll be keeping my eye out for how things look up at Standedge