Smoggieontour
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Posts posted by Smoggieontour
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Some of the webcams are looking fun now!
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1 minute ago, NickR said:
Radar says it should be moderate snow/sleet right now. Just had a look. Pretty much nothing falling from the sky whatsoever. Underwhelming.
I think you need a new hobby mate, this one seems to just upset you.
It was never going to be heavy snow around this time, I've had 8pm as my time for Teesside for a realistic change from rain to snow, so probably 7pm for low lying parts of Durham/Wearside.
Looking at the latest charts though I'd possibly delay that by an hour or two.
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44 minutes ago, Gizzy said:
And another duplicate! (Sorry)
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43 minutes ago, Gizzy said:
Sorry...duplicate post.
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37 minutes ago, Gizzy said:
Dear me Snowman we just get Nick onside and then we get you throwing your toys out of the pram.
Yes the SE are going to get snow for a time but in case you have forgot so are we and possibly for at least the next four days and who knows, maybe the next four weeks ??!!
I think Snowmaggedon was being facetious! Still very wet here, still think it'll be about 8pm before it turns here.
Looking forward to seeing the cams across Tow Law etc. turning white in the next few hours though.
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Just now, Snowmaggedon said:
Looks like I took the best day of work then! What’s it looking like for the rest of the week seen someone post their projections for next week predicting a big snow event around Thursday/Friday including the NE?
Monday and Tuesday look good I reckon! There will be showers around Sunday and Wednesday too but less frequent/lighter.
I'm not convinced about the snowy breakdown at the end of the week tbh, I think it'll struggle to make much progress eastwards, but temps will slowly rise over the weekend.
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It's not going to sleet (except for a time tomorrow evening). The Meto app, and most/all other apps, are useless.
Sunday is currently looking like the quietest day for convection, especially during the morning and early afternoon. Monday looks very active.
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UKV shows a good rash of showers around the area already in the early hours of Sunday morning.
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Aye, don't know why people worry about what other parts of the country are getting. Just enjoy whatever you get. My current thinking on snow depths for Teesside are:
By Sunday night - 2cm
By Monday night - 7cm
By Tuesday night - 10cm
Obviously if we get lucky and a streamer hits us, it'll be more, but could get unlucky and end up with less. Think this will be similar for low-lying areas of Tyne and Wear. I expect the NYM, North Pennines, Northumberland, Consett/Stanley to all end up with 30cm quite easily.
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17 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:
Am I right in thinking we have a threat for snow tomorrow evening even at lower levels or is our best bet from Sunday onwards?
Think it'll turn to snow from about 8pm here mate. Probably be a bit of a slushy mess at first as will probably rain most of tomorrow afternoon, but dew points falling away after midnight on Sunday so settling won't be a problem after that.
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All looking good.
The models will be underdoing PPN amounts from shower activity and we still don't know exactly where troughs etc. will form.
Yes, EA and SE England may get more than us on Sunday from that front, however for the most part this precipitation won't be overly heavy. We want this front as far away as possible as it is not going to hit us, but will stop shower activity just to the north of it (e.g. Lincolnshire on Sunday morning)
Monday is looking increasingly like the snowiest day now. The snow potential seems to keep extending and we should be seeing snow showers on and off from Saturday evening - Thursday.
Relax everyone, it's going to work out fine for all of us.
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20 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:
Met office showing sleet for my location Sunday and Monday
Mine has rain on Sunday! Absolutely no chance. I use the Meteogroup app more these days and that has snow all day Sunday and Monday. BBC website similar.
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2 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:
Ah nice one! Yeah it’ll be the Monday then thank you I want to make the most of it!
I’m in Linthorpe moving to Acklam in a couple of weeks just waiting on a completion date which could be within 2-3 weeks got an appointment on Monday just to get another feel for the house etc I have a feeling it could be a tricky commute even though it’s 5 minutes in the car!
Yes that'll be interesting on Monday I suspect.
I lived in Linthorpe too until recently but am in Thorntree nowadays. So the showers will be passing through here on their way to you!
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14 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:
Any idea when we’ll get the worst of it if it comes off trying to put some holidays in from work?
Still a little bit early for specifics, but for Middlesbrough my current guess is rain will turn to snow late Saturday evening. Sunday we should get plenty of snow showers/longer spells of snow. Monday also looks particularly snowy and this could also continue on Tuesday and Wednesday.
So I'd book the Monday off if I were you!
Where abouts in Middlesbrough are you out of interest?
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Fax chart for midday Sunday looking good. 528 dam line clearing most of the UK at that point, except the far SW. A weather front just off the Yorkshire coast, with a couple of "trees" in the North Sea, which I believe indicate enhanced/organised shower activity - one for NE England and one for E Scotland. Going to be fun and games.
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9 minutes ago, gazzac69 said:
12 ECM is looking a belter for our region
Yes, not bad at all!
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I guess this has to happen one day?
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All still looking good for Sunday/Monday especially, and probably several days after if most of the models are correct.
Only minor niggle is I'd like the uppers to be a couple of degrees colder, as we're currently looking at approx. -9, but if we could get them that bit lower, it will help with convection.
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1 minute ago, DCee said:Writing is on the wall im afraid, the GFS is king at picking up these spoilers.
The ECM has been way behind all season and I fully expect all other models to sniff out the same as the GFS, the low simply won't have enough ummph from the north t move south.
Ridiculous post.
It's currently UKMO/ECM/GEM/JMA and ICON vs GFS. Who knows, the GFS could be correct, but saying "the writing is on the wall" is a daft thing to say.
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3 hours ago, Bridgeport Harrison said:
BBC weather on Countryfile poured scorn on the beast, possible snow for me on Tuesday in Stanley but quite mild the rest of the week, I hope its a poor forecast from them.
I'd ignore the BBC forecasts at the minute, they seem to be based entirely on the ECM operational run, which is all over the place currently.
Really solid GFS and ensembles tonight with the mean 850s hitting -10 in the NE next weekend. The ICON tonight was good too. Hopefully when we wake up in the morning the UKMO and ECM will be fully on board.
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The 6z Op looks like an outlier for much of the short-medium term. For example, the mean 850 temp is a good 5c colder than the Op for NE England by the 6th/7th of Feb. It is also a huge outlier in terms of PPN.
So as much as I'd like to see this run come off from an IMBY point of view as I'd see about a foot of snow, it looks miles out in terms of the position of the front.
So that's an outlier from ECM and an outlier from GFS this morning.
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Looking at the short ENS rolling out, the OP is one of the slowest to bring the cold in and almost a mild outlier for my location (Middlesbrough) at day 6. There is a 12c spread by 4th Feb, with 850s ranging from 1 to -11, so going to be a while before this sorts itself out.
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3 hours ago, Snowmaggedon said:
What’s it looking like for the region with this easterly becoming increasingly likely?
In terms of snow in Middlesbrough, the setup showing in the charts is pretty much as good as it gets. We know how difficult it is to get snow here; frontal snow from fronts approaching from the SW generally don't come off as we're either too far north or we end up with a slushfest, we don't do great from a NWerly and we struggled with the last easterly as it was too borderline given our proximity to the coast and lack of altitude.
We do well with winds anywhere between N and E, although NE'ly is probably best. With what is showing in the charts, we'd be looking at days heavy snow showers bubbling up due to the low uppers and relatively warm North Sea, possibly merging to give longer spells of snow at times. And, for once, there'd be no marginality from Friday evening onwards.
Still lots of time to pass before then and many things that could go wrong but easily our best chance of significant snow in Teesside since 2018.
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Snowing but naff all chance of it settling.
Far north and northeast of England weather discussion
in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion
Posted
Every post of yours is negative, either complaining that EA/SE are going to get more snow than us, or it's not snowing yet here. None of the charts were showing snow this afternoon, except for the highest ground. Everything is more or less as expected so far, except a slight delay of a couple of hours.