[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

On 09/12/2023 at 15:41, Ravelin said:

Not sure tomorrow will be any better either. 

It wasn't, probably worse actually. Grey with some drizzle in the morning, heavier rain early afternoon onwards. Made the mistake before the dog walk late morning of checking the level of clothing required by popping out the back door. Didn't seem too chilly, but that was sheltered. Once out on the hill a stiff wind made it feel much colder, despite coming from a southerly direction. 

Next shot at something interesting? 

Almost certainly will change in detail, and the GFS OP was at the colder end of its ensemblies, but persistent hints that after a warmer spell next weekend it could cool down again significantly ahead of Xmas?

 

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

Pick any one or more from the following and it'll describe the weather today... 

disgusting
nasty
terrible
dreadful
ghastly
horrid
horrible
vile
foul
abominable
appalling
atrocious
horrendous
hideous
offensive
objectionable
obnoxious
frightful
loathsome
revolting
repulsive
repellent
repugnant
odious
sickening
nauseating
nauseous
gruesome
diabolical
yucky

Not sure tomorrow will be any better either. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

A less than easy commute home in awful weather just now. Windy, 5C, pitch black, heavy rain, lots of surface water, including the A944 fully submerged in a couple of the usual places. At least the ice has gone from the driveway, which is about the only positive I can think of. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

I saw -8c in Alford and -6C in Westhill, with nothing any higher in between, on this morning's commute (after spending 10mins trying to clear a thick frost off the car windows) . Too busy to notice what kind of day it was, but the commute home was pretty much all sub zero too. In fact, just looking at various weather stations around Alford it was an ice day (so far), or damn close to it, on most.  Roads much less icy than yesterday though despite it being colder. 

Could be interesting again in the morning if the forecast rain moves in overnight. Will have to warm up quickly, and even then the ground will still be very cold. 

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Currently -2.9C and this might be the last sub-zero night for a bit. Probably welcome too, as the driveway and a lot of the back roads were skating rinks this morning as wet roads refroze. On to the search for the next cold spell, one at Xmas would be nice for a change. 

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Low of 1.3C, high of 3.3C, currently 2.2C, and the 7mm or so of overnight rain just made the driveway icier than it'd been during the cold spell. Had to throw salt over it again after I got home from work as, if anything, it seemed worse than this morning. 

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2C here and very similar to the above, just thrown grit across a very icy driveway. Might catch out some of the "must get to work", couldn't get out of bed 5mins earlier, idiots on the A944

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Well if the local weather station is to be believed, not quite an ice day as the temp got above freezing around 6pm and has been hovvering around 1C pretty much since then. Stuck my head out the back door and I'd say its currently raining lightly, but the thin covering of snow on the driveway and cars out front seems intact. Possibly as they are still very cold? Could be an interesting commute in the morning if it stays like this. 

Forecasts suggesting it still stays relatively cold here, if not as cold as the last few days, until late Wed. Then gets a bit milder, but still below average for Dec? 

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Still -1.8C and just had a brief light snow shower.

 

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9 hours ago, Quinach said:

And its darned chilly out there this evening...

Rather chilly inside too by the looks of that. 

Overnight low here of -7.0C in the early hours but it's risen to -3.9C currently. Looks like a bit more cloud around than yesterday. Forecasts a bit all over the place as to when exactly it'll turn milder here, but it should stay on the cold side today. Can we get a second ice day in a row though? 

Edit: I'm sure Glenshee Ski Center would love this ECM forecast for the end of the week to actually happen... 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Warmest it's been so far here is - 1.6C, and with the sun dropping and the temperature back down to - 3.0C I think we can safely call it an ice day. Certainly felt rather chilly when out walking the dog a little while ago, even with it calm and being in the sun some of the time. 

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Stop moaning about lack of MetO warnings, they just ruin the nice surprises.

So far we've hit  a high of - 2.9C here, despite wall to wall sunshine. 

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5 hours ago, JamesM said:

It might be late but unexpected snowfalls are the best and had to take the opportunity for a few pictures around the village. 8cms so far but gone off a bit now. 
 

Cracking photos, only the truly dedicated (or snow starved) go out for a late night snow walk. 

Great to see so many have a surprise snow fall, and decent amounts lying too. Just very cold here, currently -6.2C, which is only slightly above the current overnight low. Could it be an ice day? 

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High of 1.6C here today according to the local station along the road, but as that coincided with a spike in solar radiation I'm not sure how accurate it is, ie likely the sun directly hit the station. Low for the day is -2.8C so far, which is the current temp. 

Likely going to drop further as sky was cloudless on the drive home, with car showing variations between - 2c and -4c between Westhill and Alford. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Bit of a blizzard around Tillyfourie on my drive home around 4:45pm, just about lying as a sleety mess on the road. Road outside my house is similar, with a wet covering on the grass in the garden. 

Snowed in Westhill too during the afternoon, but no hint of it lying, despite over 900 pupils willing it to in the hope of an early finish (not even close). 

Now is the point we really enter the freezer around here according to most forecasts, with any snow being a bonus. 

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Well around 10:30 this morning in Westhill a couple of my pupils said "Oh look, it's snowing" to which I replied "it's not cold enough today, it can't be... oh...so it is". Brief, heavy and wet, but definitely snow. 

Generally though it's been miserable and wet but although feeling cold it's not quite cold enough to be of real interest. Not even a hint of a frost this morning. Not read the MOD thread today, or really looked at the models, but quick glances at forecasts based on the latest runs still suggest cold but largely dry for NE Scotland. 

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Overnight low of -1.7C and has dragged itself up to a max of 0.4C so far. Calm with a lot of high cloud with occasional breaks. Best snow potential is definitely later in the week but when, amounts etc keeps changing, as expected at this range. Might manage a couple of lying cm by Friday. 

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You can see from this why the ECM 0Z run was much favoured by the MOD squad... 

Rather chilly, but not exactly going to be buried in snow. 

Currently a sunny 3.3C, which might be as warm as we see for a while. 

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2.1C here currently, calm, broken cloud, 1.5mm over overnight rain making everything look damp. 

Not quite sure why it's all sweetness and light in the MOD thread at the moment. Yes it's looking like a cool week, but mainly dry with only an outside chance of snow?

[Scotland Weather discussion]

12 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

The chart below sums up something we don't tend to see, the behaviour of lows exiting North America, retrograding North up the West coast of Greenland via some stalling, default would be they jump on the zonal train. Considerable cool down in continental Europe, Scandi already frozen, a tropospheric vortex pretty much bashed around and a strong Canadian Warming in the upper strat. Lots in play currently, still it 'feels' like another factor as yet quantified is at play, AGW artefacts possibly of NATL SSTA anoms, not sure. Still we have not had charts heralding an Atlantic lock out like this for a time. Caveat being it's the EC and it does have a historic tendency to amplify based on how it sees the pacific play out - it gets over zealous on fixtures for ridges. I would err on the block on the Atlantic here being over-run - but time will tell..

Not a million miles away from what the GFS is showing at the same time though. 

As I said the other day, it's all very intriguing. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

8 hours ago, johncam said:

Oh dear , a lot of bubbles getting burst in MOD thread 

And..... bubbles galore floating around unpopped this morning again as 0Z runs look better. It's hilarious. Even still, I'd better not post a picture of my dusting of snow in there this morning or someone will have a fit. Not that it's unusual for late Nov here. 

Currently 0.7C and yes, a little snow lying in places from overnight showers, mainly cloudless by the looks of it and doesn't seem too windy. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

12 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

There's a few online German tyre shops that seem to have taken over the market now. You'd think shipping would prevent it working, but perhaps the volume of sales means they get a very good deal with distributors to get them out - slowly!

Much bigger market in Germany, a legal requirement to have winter tyres on during certain months too, so thier sales will be huge compared to most UK tyre wholesalers. Had a look at my tyres the other day and I'm going to need a new set fairly soon, still legal but 2 yrs old and tread getting lower than perhaps optimal for an Aberdeenshire winter. Shoukd make it to the Xmas hols when I'll have more time to sort it out. 

Temperature here currently 3.5C with a 0.6C dewpoint, down from a high of 12.2 in the early hours. Certainly felt a lot colder outside this afternoon than yesterday, tomorrow should feel even colder. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Down from 12.2C to 7.4C here so far, winds dropping after a breezy night, not a lot of cloud around.

Looking forward to potentially seeing a flurry or two of light snow tomorrow if forecasts are right. Not getting carried away with the MOD thread though, in either direction. Best I can say is that I'm intrigued at what the models are showing, but far from the point of being excited. Likely looking cooler for a while, but doubting it'll be snowy in the foreseeable, but hopefully that will come eventually. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

14 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

It's cigars and champagne all round in the MOD thread tonight. What could possibly go wrong

I've absolutely no clue what to make of any of the weather models in the last day or two, there is no making sense of it. Best thing to do in this situation, when chaos reigns, both in the models and the MOD thread, is to sit back quietly and watch, possibly hiding behind a cushion, 1970s Dr Who style as a kid. 

@dryfieDon't give up all together, just stay out of the MOD thread and hang out here. If anything particularly exciting pops up we'll be all over it, without the southern bias. Most of us have been bitten by the MOD thread and had a slap or two on the wrist as a result (some more than others, not naming names ). 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

16 hours ago, johncam said:

I personally won't be posting again in MOD thread until winter is over.  Some remarks are petty and frankly uncalled for.

It's a real 'car crash' in there this morning. 

Meanwhile in the real world, currently 3.7C, calm, and with the cloud looking broken enough that I'll likely be able to see the sun once it gets above the horizon.