Ravelin

January 14

Snow 9n here too now, but light as it looks like it's just the edge of the heavier band that hit @Mair Snawand @Scepticalis just clipping my house. That's the luck of the draw with showers.

January 14

A dusting here overnight, but nothing measurable depth wise. Currently 0.2C, which is about as low as it's been since midnight.

January 13

Your body must just be acclimatising ready for the big freeze Mair Snaw, it should be around 2C currently where you are. Got to a high of 5.2C here today but felt colder when out walking the dog mid afternoon as we were exposed to a stiff NW breeze. Now down to 1.4C with a dewpoint of -0.2C. If forecasts, are correct we should wake up to at least a thin covering of snow.

January 12

-3.5c here at 5pm, up to 4.3C now. It was always forecast to warm up into Saturday, before we head back into the freezer on Sunday.

January 12

As the weather cleared from grey murk to blue skies around Stirling on my drive home I decided to take the scenic route up the A93. It's slightly shorter distance wise, slightly slower, but prettier and avoids potential Dundee queues.

Stopped at the summit at Glenshee for 5 mins to enjoy the view looking south as the sun was setting....

Looks like plenty of snow higher up, but I suspect it's not actually that deep. Ski slopes themselves looked poor unfortunately, hopefully they'll improve this week but I suspect they need quite a bit more snow.

Temperature on the drive varied wildly, sure I noticed -7C near Spittal of Glenshee, and certainly widely -4C around Braemar and Deeside. The ski center was sitting around freezing despite the extra altitude. Some quite thick mist from Ballater through to past Tarland, and then again around Alford.

January 12

3 hours ago, jon_d1983 said:

3/4 of the weather apps I use showing snow Sunday night into Monday with varying levels of intensity. One thing I did notice, they all show the wind coming from the NW, I was of the understanding the wind would be Northerly?

Wind direction doesn't directly follow the isobar contour lines, but blows at an angle to them. The winds around a low pressure travel in an anticlockwise direction, but at an angle towards the center of the low pressure system. Think of it, the centre of a depression has a lower pressure than the outside, the pressure is trying to equalise, so it's trying to get to the centre. High pressure systems are the opposite, winds travel clockwise, but at an angle away from the center.

As we are on the western side of the low pressure coming from the N/NE then the wind will come from more of a NWerly direction despite the isobars showing a straight Northerly.

I'm in the central belt this morning where it's 1 to 2C, very grey, and with a chilly breeze. Driving back up to Aberdeenshire this afternoon to make sure I get my cm or two of snow on Sunday. Warnings out for northern parts already, but not sure currently forecast amounts are really going to cause any problems.

January 11

The above has caused consternation in significant swathes of the MOD thread as you might expect. Solution? Move to live several hundred miles north, or nip across the channel and set up home in Northern France (must be plenty of spare dingies is storage in Kent somewhere). Alternatively, wait for the next model run as it'll all change again.

Looking like a half decent chance for us north of the border of seeing snow, with the N & NE contingent maybe starting to see wintry showers from Sunday onwards. Except @Hairy Celtof course, as north of the central belt he appears to have chosen the least snowy place to live.

January 11

13 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

This isn't really an answer, but even hoping for a forecast to model snowfall on an island that's downwind of a big and (relatively) warm ocean, several days ahead, and you're on a hiding to nothing. We can look at the colourful maps of various parameters for 6 - or even 3 - hour intervals but when we know from experience that it's all down to watching the radar then the lamp post, then well why do it?

Which is why the bun fight in the MAD thread earlier this morning was so hilarious. It'll snow, no it won't, it'll be too far north, no it always ends up too far south, the ECM is more reliable, no the GFS deals with these situations better.

I know we all want to see snow but get a grip, it's at least 3 days away, absolute minimum, so no forecasts for snow are accurate at that range. Thats even if all the models were agreeing, when in reality they are flopping around like a recently landed fish at the moment.

January 10

45 minutes ago, Mr T said:

Looks similar to 8th Dec 2010 which brought this....

But that's a disaster, it's all green south of Manchester.

January 9

In line with others in the surrounding area we have had a dusting of snow here this evening. Temp stubbornly sat a few tenths of a degree above freezing.

To illustrate the point @lorenzowas making, here's Monday's charts from the main 4 models...

Can you spot the odd one out?

UKMO probably the best, with the most direct northerly, then ECM as the lower heighrs (blues) aren't as far south, GEM next as again it's all further north and a bit west. GFS has lower hrighrs encroaching on Greenland and then later in the run becomes a real mess. Doesn't mean it's wrong though, and it's been doing something similar firca few runs.

January 9

Can't see much evidence of this outside just now, phantom snow?

January 9

1 hour ago, thebigyin said:

Mad house bingo - "vital ECM coming up..."!

I suspect the latest ECM run might have calmed the nerves at least a little.

42 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

No giant metal towers in BoG last time I was there though

Yeah, and foreign snow is much more exciting and exotic than plain old Scottish snow.

January 9

You've all confirmed what I knew after looking at the last GFS runs, NOT to visit the MOD thread this evening. UKMO is looking good though, and we'll see how ECM fares soon too. I'm convinced we'll be cold next week in Scotland either way, still to be convinced that many of us will see more than an odd snowflake though.

Commute this morning was largely done in -3C temps, with car being a bit easier to defrost. Commute home it hovered around freezing or -1C most of the way. Difficult to tell in the dark but the Vale of Alford looked like it had retained/built frost all day. Local weather station to me says min - 3.5C, max 0.3C, but I'm sure some others in the area will have recorded an ice day.

January 8

Temperature here was varying between -4c and -6C on my morning commute, and the main problem for me was getting the car ready to drive. There was a thick frost on it, and even turning on the engine for 10mins before I went back out made little difference. De-icer, scraper and cloths were then deployed on both the frozen outside and inside windows. Took about 20mins before I could see out enough to move.

More damp and misty on the way home, temp 0C to -1C. Roads in either direction weren't too bad, just a couple of icy patches where water was still running off fields.

Currently sat just above freezing, which is just about the max for the day so far.

January 7

26 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Believe me, I think about it all the time!

Better hurry up then as tonight's pub run is predicting a Day After Tomorrow scenario for the Highlands mid month...

Brutal.

Be nice if that happens, but I'm not betting on it.

January 7

1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

"Brutal cold, day time temperatures 2-4c"

Only in MOD thread

Glad to say the wife, dog and I survived a pleasant 1hr30 walk in 'brutal cold' this afternoon then, around Loch Kinnord (which involved a bit of puddle jumping and fence hopping to avoid flooded bits of the path, as the water level is very high). A bit cloudy here, max of 3.5C but only for an hour or so in the afternoon, mostly cooler with frost and ice lingering.

Looks like most of the rest of the week will also be 'brutally cold', and if that's the case I hate to think how they'd term what might happen up here the following week.

January 7

Slight frost this morning, calm again, some broken mid level cloud currently hiding the sun after a decent sunrise, temp sitting around 1 or 2C. Week ahead looks cool, a sunnier cool earlier in the week then more cloud the second half.

Next weekend onwards is still a bit uncertain, models are wobbly and inconsistent. I think it's odds on it'll be cold again at the start of next week, 15th, especially for us north of the borde. Quite how cold, for how long and whether it'll snow is still far from certain.

January 5

Sorry, just jinxed winter as I've ordered new tyres to be fitted on Thursday, so it's almost certain it'll not snow now.

Had to take a run into ARI in Aberdeen for a routine appointment this morning. On the way in the car was showing 1C around 10:30 , backed up by the slightly sleety rain rattling off the windscreen. Strangely it was dry from around Westhill on, and stayed so until after Dyce on the way back as I detoured via shops in Inverurie. Pelting it down in Inverurie between approx 1pm and 2pm, but sky cleared from the SW as I got back to Alford, so subsequent dog walk was thankfully dry, but chilly.

Max of 3.5C around 3pm, dropped to around 0C now so likely icy in the morning.

Edit: Just in time for most schools starting thier prelims @lorenzo, wonderful timing to cause maximum chaos, if it happens.

January 5

1 hour ago, mardatha said:

Gonny translate that for me SIS? what's the chart MEAN???!

It's a chart of the temperate of the air higher up above Scotland according to forecasts from the GFS model. What it shows is that after around the 14th Jan the upper air temp drops markedly for at least a week, cold enough for snow. It's still only a forecast, but despite half of the posters on the MOD thread having the wobbles this morning it's still looking likely that we'll be going markedly colder after next weekend.

Edit: As illustrated by the end of the latest ECM run...

January 4

20 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

A much happier model thread currently... and, neither wonder.

Some tantalising cold output pulling through, GFS below for mid-month..

Been keeping an eye on this too and I think it's about time I finally pull the trigger and get a new set of all seasons on the car. The current ones are sitting around 3mm front, 4mm back, so easily legal for a while yet, but likely not as effective in deep snow as they will have been the last 2 winters.

Pretty benign day here today, temp between 3.8 and 5.2C, dry, reasonably bright at times, not too windy.

January 3

57 minutes ago, Quinach said:

What a miserable couple of days, makes you want to hibernate.

Cool (Max 5c) and very wet with non-stop precipitation, covering the full gamut of intensity range though mainly light this afternoon. Flooded fields everywhere and roads in similar state (though not as bad as last Wednesday).

Roll on drier weather, this winter is becoming memorable for its incredibly soggy nature here.

Drove back from my folks in the central belt early afternoon. It was miserable pretty much all of the way, but the stretch from just north of Dundee all the way back to Alford was horrible. Not quite flooded, except for a few big puddles, but loads of surface water, misty and rain of various intensities. Looking at the fields either side of the A90 and A947 we really, really need a decent period of dry weather, and/or anything falling from above to at least be of the frozen variety.

It'll be interesting if the forecasts come to fruition, if so there are going to be a lot of natural ice rinks around.

January 1

19 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Here's to a better 2024. Have to say I struggle with listening to the news from Ukraine and Gaza, with the London gov't doing absolutely nothing to help in either case. Time to start praying.

I've pretty much stopping watching the TV news as its just so depressing and infuriating. The inaction from one country in particular in relation to Gaza, who by just condemning BOTH sides could probably reduce the number of innocent deaths massively, is galling. I also work with a couple of Ukrainian refugee kids at school, who are lovely, but who knows what and who they have left behind in the search for safety.

Anyway, weather, yes I'm sure we could all do with some dry weather. It's been so wet overall in recent weeks that now even moderate rainfall is causing flooding problems, as there is zero capacity left for the ground to cope. In the absence of snow I'll take cool/cold and sunny please. Models seem to be showing high pressure situated over or around the UK next week, but a lot of variation on where exactly it is positioned.

Finally, Happy New Year to everyone. Hope you all have a great year. This will be the year we get the last of the three kids out of school. There might be other big changes coming along too, but more on that later if it happens.

December 30, 2023

3 hours ago, Ravelin said:

Not started to snow/rain here so far today,but got out with the dog in advance just in case. Don't mind walking in snow, but rain or sleet, no thanks.

Straight to cold rain here, 2.5C and rattling off the windows. On to the next search, second week of Jan perhaps for something decent maybe? Just in time for the schools going back, and prelims starting soon after for many.

December 30, 2023

Not started to snow/rain here so far today,but got out with the dog in advance just in case. Don't mind walking in snow, but rain or sleet, no thanks.

Picture is from the 'middle' route of my normal dog walks up the hill from the house, 350m asl or thereabouts. Still plenty of crunchy, refrozen snow along the track, icy in places. It was quite dull and misty.

December 30, 2023

0.7C here, calm and very grey. Just been outside and I can't tell if it's snowing very lightly, raining very lightly, or just a touch of mist in the air. Last night's dusting still lying, but will it be added to before it gets washed away? Forecasts suggest straight to rain as warming up before front gets here.

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