Weather-history

I looked back at my overnight timelapse and only realised there was a 2nd outburst around 3am, I was so happy that I captured the first outburst.

Aurora last night

Caught the aurora on my timelapse last night

GFS 12z is nasty run for the region on Wednesday UKMO 12z is nasty as well

5.2°C A lot of moisture in the air. Dew, shallow fog

After such a dry start to September, it is going to end up a wetter than average month, regionally.

Ryde on the Isle of Wight (°F) 1. 69 2. 74 3. 68 4. 73 5. 69 6. 68 7. 72 8. 77 9. 70 10. 69 11. 71 12. 73 13. 71 14. 72 15. 73 16. 74 17. 73 18. 73 19. 71 20. 73 21. 62 22. 65 23. 66 24. 70 25. 70 26. 69 27. 71 28. 68 29. 68 30. 68

How many long range models/forecasters saw that July coming? It wouldn't surprise me if it was 0 Netweather "July Almost all global forecast models point to a dominant high pressure over Northern Europe, but the models disagree somewhat about the location. However, analogs and some models suggest blocking high further east over Scandinavia. Meanwhile, relatively low pressure looks like persisting from Portugal to the Mediterranean basin. High pressure close to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest could cause heat plumes but with some thundery weather too, especially as the heat breaks down at times. So, we envisage a hot month of July, with temperatures above the seasonal average between +1.5 and +2°C. Highest temperature anomalies in the south, closer to average in the north. Most rainfall contributed by thunderstorms which could break out, especially across southern and central areas of Britain. Scotland could be anomalously dry though, thanks to high pressure close by." I sometimes wonder if an unconscious bias develops in forecasters when making long range forecasts. For instance, a long period of above average temperatures and the forecasts biases toward above average temperatures?

August 2008 and this ran into early September. June 1987 was shocking here, only 89 hrs by the 26th.

Squally with heavy rain coming in bursts

Very different to last Wednesday morning. A very mild morning: 17.0°C

4.4mm of rain so far

Two newspaper articles on thunderstorms that hit parts of SE of England from around the 28th August 1823.

Got to say, another poor one by the Met Office for those further south and east. What rainfall model predictor do they use? Its not had a good couple of days.

Met Office were bit off! Look at that

Raining heavily now

Looks like it being a non event, the dreaded mess is coming up from the south. Manchester METAR mention no thunder, nothing on the Met Office forecast, no warnings for here.

"Perhaps an isolated light morning shower, however a dry and fairly warm day for most places." Its more than an isolated shower, more like patchy rain be a better description.

Thankfully this didn't come off. A lot of these precipitation totals this was based on was a stalling front across the region during Friday

Looks like there is more rain on the radar than the Met Office was predicting. Is it me or has the Met Office short range forecasting has got worse in the last 2 or 3 years? Maybe its the text forecasts that is giving me this impression?

Cambridge Mean temp of 62.3°F and a rainfall of 0.485 inches of rainfall Manchester (°F) 1st-10th mean: 64.8 11th-20th mean: 65.5 21st: -30th mean: 58.1 84.8°F on the 27th 4 days with rain an a total of 0.74 inches Birmingham Mean temp of 61°F and a rainfall of 0.2 inches of rain Waringstown Mean temp of 59°F and a rainfall of 0.88 inches of rain with rain recorded on 4 days

Mental health warning "Should not to be taken seriously" Never understood why you are such a champion of CFS, Crewe.

September 1865 is the joint 3rd warmest September in the CET listings on record with a CET of 16.3°C, it is also the 2nd driest September on record with an EWP of 9.5mm. It was an exceptional month and a very odd month as it was sandwiched between two wet months August 1865: 126.0mm September 1865: 9.5mm October 1865: 168.4mm Wisbech in Cambridgeshire recorded rain on just 2 days. The highest maximum of the month was 28.9°C on the 8th with a mean for the month of 17.8°C Some data, I'll post some more later Maxima recorded at Ganton, North Yorkshire during September 1865 in (°F) 1. 68 2. 74 3. 77 4. 73 5. 73 6. 72 7. 80 8. 83 9. 72 10. 74 11. 73 12. 75 13. 75 14. 74 15. 77 16. 78 17. 74 18. 75 19. 75 20. 75 21. 62 22. 66 23. 70 24. 71 25. 71 26. 75 27. 80 28. 63 29. 62 30. 62 Bury St Edmunds 1. 69 2. 77 3. 79 4. 79 5. 75 6. 74 7. 81 8. 81 9. 72 10. 77 11. 75 12. 74 13. 76 14. 76 15. 76 16. 81 17. 76 18. 72 19. 70 20. 72 21. 61 22. 63 23. 65 24. 65 25. 67 26. 68 27. 70 28. 67 29. 67 30. 64