[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 winterof79 That’s a pretty solid mean day 10 onwards, maybe just coming into view on the ECM too!! And you are correct ref the myth of needing -10c uppers in late Feb, no idea why people make this stuff up The Sea is at its coldest point into March which helps too, and why it’s easier to get snow Into March vs November and even December!! 
 

Winter still looks to be coming 24/25 Feb ️ and we have a major SSW so expect some craziness into March too 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Winter still coming 24/25 Feb ️

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Day 4,8,10 strat temps - I don’t know why people are discounting the chance of something very cold late Feb and ignoring op charts for now - just keep an eye on the ENS for another few days till the ops get a handle on the SSW!! Winter is coming - finally ️️️

 

I’ll add FI - destruction complète!! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

With the GEFS and EPS means looking good later Feb, and the latest op -  think Feb 24th is a good point to aim for anything remotely winter like - hopefully it happens and doesn’t slip Anymore to the right!! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

T300 mean is pretty good 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Oh yes 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Great mean - winter is coming ️️

 

Some of the better ENS here 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Uncertainty we just need a better set of GEFS and a ECM to match now  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

UKMO GEM great - GFS hopefully very wrong!! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Prepare for some 12z upgrades - can feel it

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 KTtom not discounting CC , with Scandy having an incredibly cold winter I don’t think getting cold would be a problem if we got the HP in the right place - although I guess some will say that’s due to CC. Over the last few years the UKs snowiest periods have often been into March - so you never know. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

People are giving up too early, this is a good mean late on - let the SSW do its stuff , and I think winter still has a sting in its tail. BFTE was late Feb/early March and that was pretty severe - we could still get that and hopefully some longevity afterwards - and then we’ll all be ready for summer.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch just need the high lay block first - hopefully the cold would come - this is way FI now and the block sets up days 7/8 - it’ll look very different in reality the further we go into FI - hopefully better

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch of take that at day 10 , PV ain’t coming back any time soon 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

PV Oblitération here, not the perfect set up yet but it’s a good way forward 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Day 8 looking like it’s close to a good set up, good swings so far on the 12z 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

SSW with very little recovery - March  is going to be fun ️

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

This is very close to being very good - let’s see where it goes 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch looking likely, and icon in the same sentence??  I’d wait for the rest of the runs first!! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

There are 6/7 decent ensembles at day 9 a bit like these, but I think people are just fed up so not seeing the possibilities here. I think some rapid swings to better Synoptics are really quite probable. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch i don’t think we should be expecting anything cold in the next 10 days, all eyes on the last 10 days of Feb as the SSW starts to manifest itself lower down - we need some luck 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I think it’ll be a day of upgrades from here in, and I just have a feeling the SSW will deliver something pretty good for the U.K. , we are in a world of extremes regarding the weather -  so let’s top March 2013

 

ECM at 216 is trying!! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

If we are lucky we can get the right Synoptics around 20 Feb, still time for some severe stuff before the sun really comes into play early March 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Dog with a bone the Arpege, defo a slight move north though 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Harveyslugger this is true - but at what times at was that? I think that was around 4/5 days out