[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Ok I think I’m going to discount the Arpege completely, the METO really insist it’s rain south of Birmingham on their latest forecast video and they will have the best info!! Chase on again

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I just can’t believe how the Arpege can be 100 miles wrong at T48 - normally it’s a very good model as we get close!! I just can’t see it being right looking at the GFS and UKMO 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch hoping the ENS have some members showing snow south of the M4

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Battleground Snow awesome - surely we will see a southerly movement now on the others 

 

Actually even further south on the Arpege

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Drifter I think that earlier Arpege kept us in the hunt, some deeper snow levels and it stayed colder - can’t see it happening on the 12zs (especially with warnings moving north) but you never know!! 

And the arome 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

METO délayed their deep dive video till 1639, I wonder if they need to see those 12z first 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 carinthian Birmingham to Peterborough would suggest a southward movement compared to what the UKMO/GFS/ECM are showing - maybe the Arpege and arome 06z are onto something

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

How should we rate the ARPEGE and AROME at T48 ? 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 sheikhy and fir cherry picking P29 looks good for Thurs onwards too - in fact it’s pretty awesome 

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[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 sheikhy add the AROME to the ARPEGE moving the snow south

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Arpege Way further south , 15-20 cm in my neck of the woods and much of the midlands  - clearly that’s wrong!! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

METO gets rid of midlands warning but GFS still showing some frontal snow but it quickly moves north 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Fax charts have kept the front further south fir Friday too 

Looks good 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 MattStoke bugger, good for your location though I’ll just have to hope the Arpege has it 

Fax looks a little better 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Upgrade from Arpege, and snow line back south 

 

UKV also south again and it doesn’t send the system north introducing the warm air, midlands primed 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mcconnor8 typical 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Pub run - come on, big correction south then awesome day 8 and beyond please

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Tim Bland agree, might see some very wet snow for 30 mins then sleet to rain - if I’m lucky!! Not all that fussed for that!  

[Model banter and emotions]

 northwestsnow thanks - in reality I think you’re in the best spot - especially in your new pad it’ll certainly be interesting to see how it plays out - marginal sometimes being the best thing for big falls ️ Chased a decent fall for years on here , I do feel I deserve one as many others do  cost a fortune buying in this hill

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Just looking at the EC ensembles for Thursday and still have the sub 0c 850s around the M4 at lunchtime - something tells me there’s still chance for some southern correction with this - maybe I’m hopecasting for my area - but as many know, these fronts often move south nearer the time. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 MJB yeah I’m clinging on, but it’s all a bit disappointing - again !! We have very little time for it to swing back the other way - probably way passed that chance to be fair

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

EC 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I’ll hang on to these images from the latest METO forecast - hopefully the ECM follows that 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch there’s still time, probably enough time that it can miss us all into France knowing our luck

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 MattStoke still a fair shift south on the UKMO compared to others - I guess it’ll be another 24 hours of adjustments - but the midlands up to Manchester area certainly looks a good bet right now!!