stodge

Evening all Pending ECM's 12z, it looks like a significant cold blast from the north incoming at T+120 so while much of Easter will be reasonable for most, Monday looks potentially unseasonably cold. One of the interesting developments from the evening modelling is as the HP eases slightly west, a new LP is able to form to the west and south west of Iceland and swing SE towards the British Isles re-enforcing the N'ly flow later next week. The 12Z GFS OP is remarkably chilly for most of the run as is Control with the HP remaining in mid-Atlantic and heights persisting over Greenland keeping us on the cold side of the trough for several days and towards mid month.

Agreed - I'm not expecting anything over lowland East London but wouldn't be surprised to see hail and thunder in a heavy shower. Further north and especially over high ground, snow is much more likely and over the Scottish mountains blizzard conditions for extended periods look probable and that would be welcome news if the Scottish ski resorts can re-open after April 12th.

Evening all Have to say the weather in the area between Greenland and Svalbard at T+192 might be "interesting". That's a 10m wind speed of 90-100 Km/hr - a constant wind speed of 55-60 mph, gusts to who knows what? That's a N'ly wind so anyone want to hazard a guess at the windchill - 850s are -24. So that's a -24c 850 and a steady windspeed of 60 mph, I'll leave someone to work that out. Still looks very interesting for early April. One or two looking at the 12Z ECM run and calling it game over - to be fair, southern and eastern Britain wouldn't see much but that's a solid long fetch NNE'ly over western parts and the traditional eastwards correction so going to work out well for cold fans. GFS OP keeps the cold going well into next month with a series of troughs forming close to the British isles - Control takes the HP further south more quickly and then send sit back over the British isles.

Which followed a very mild winter - I believe the winter of 1915-16 was one of the mildest of the 20th century.

Evening all The Easter Chill still seems on the cards tonight. That's T+192 from GFS Control, ECM and GFS OP. UKM perhaps not quite there yet but plenty of serious northern blocking to begin the new month. I love my long-fetch NE'lies as you know and ECM offers a very decent long fetch N'ly chart after T+192 but it heads the HP to pull further back NW. GFS OP keeps it chilly through FI but the question will be how quickly the HP will sink south and re-introduce westerlies. Oddly enough, the ECM, for all it is the slowest to deliver, looks to have a bit of longevity about it.

Evening all Plenty already said on the 12Z offerings tonight and a clear sign for some interesting weather to welcome the new calendar month: That's T+192 so Good Friday from GFS OP, Control and ECM. I really like Control's long-fetch NE'ly. GFS OP getting there but not as progressive while ECM keeps a slightly more N'ly component. Most of the models provide a spell of 850s below -8 over the Easter weekend before a recovery back to positive values after the holiday.

The GFS 12Z OP keeps the signal for something rather colder for Easter. The key is the small LP which forms close to the Azores - this forces ridging further to the west and eventually north west creating heights over Greenland and allowing the trough to drop to the east of Scandinavia and sending a cold arctic blast south and west over north west Europe. We know northern blocking is most prevalent in April and May and this evolution is far from unusual at this time of year as spring is the time of conflict between warmer and colder airmasses.

Evening all A blustery and chilly day here in lowland East London but the showers missed us for the most part and it's been reasonable out of the gusty wind. The strongly-indicated rise of pressure to the west of Ireland during next week looks set to quieten down the weather and leave a benign evolution albeit perhaps still a little on the chilly side with a N'ly component to the air flow for most in the British Isles. T+144 (March 19th) and T+240 (March 23rd) charts to follow. GEM: ECM: GFS OP: GFS Parallel: A fair degree of agreement in the short to medium term this evening. The HP builds from the west and ridges to the north west or north west so the possibility of a nagging NE'ly flow into southern and eastern parts. From there, there's not much change to T+240 - Parallel declines the HP rather more quickly and is the most progressive at re-introducing an Atlantic flow while GEM shifts a declining core of heights to the east but both ECM and GFS OP keep the HP close to the British Isles. From there, GFS OP offers a fairly clean and classic path to retrogression and a N'ly air flow as we approach the end of the moth while Parallel is much more unsettled. Control, conversely, digs the trough south into the Atlantic and a mid-latitude block forms over the North Sea and southern Scandinavia with a n ESE'ly flow for southern England. It does look settled and quiet in the coming week, probably quite a cloudy GP with the flow of maritime air but in any cloud breaks during the day it will be pleasantly warm but clear skies at night will equal frost (it is still mid March and rural minima can be quite low). The continuation into the final third of the month has three options and we're a long way from resolution as you might expect.

Evening all It seems Meteociel will be running a reduced service for most of next week - the priority, I imagine, is getting back the France-based charts and features. Never mind - it looked last evening as though the weathe for the British isles was going to settle through next week with HP to the west or perhaps the north west so a mild enough flow for some western parts but a much chillier scenario for eastern Britain with a N'ly or perhaps NE'ly from a still cool if not cold North Sea. However, life goes on as a wise person once said so let's see how ongoing the models look this evening: T+144 is March 18th and T+240 March 22nd. GEM: ECM: GFS OP: GFS Parallel: The pattern looks fairly set this week with heights building over or just to the west of Ireland but no sign now of any further ridging north as there is too much energy going over the top of the HP and inevitably it starts to sink back south or south west - GEM perhaps the most progressive, GFS OP least so by T+240 but overall it's a fairly quiet and benign prospect for the British Isles but a nagging N'ly or NW'ly will keep most parts on the cool side and perhaps more cloud and less sun than the basic synoptics might suggest. Control does try to build heights toward Greenland and its extended outlook keeps it distinctly cool over the British Isles with a N'ly component right out to the end of FI but OP keeps the HP meandering round close to the British Isles.

Evening all Well, I hadn't realised poor Meteociel had a fire and lost four servers but I draw comfort from the fact servers can be replaced. Looking at old Wetterzentrale, some interesting trends developing for next week and the first is the push of heights to the west of the British Isles which was first posited by GEM I think while other models were keeping the core of heights to the east and while that's no distance, it has a huge impact on the British Isles. Heights to the west and north west offer the possibility of northerlies and north easterlies and these won't be warm at this time of the year. First, GEM at T+144 (March 17th) and T+240 (March 21st): Now, ECM at the same time: GFS OP: Finally Parallel: The T+144 evolution looks pretty set with HP to the west or north west - we're not talking an advection of severe Siberian cold by any stretch but for eastern parts a cooler air source. From there, plenty of options as the HP relaxes again and it's interesting GEM and ECM have a better defined Scandinavian trough. We don't tonight have raging SW'lies or a long fetch S'ly so plenty of interest for cold fans as we move further into March.

I think it's far too early to be calling summer - we've had a number of decent spring spells (last year being one) but these don't always translate into settled summer conditions. We know northern blocking can be a feature of the late spring evolution right up to the Buchan cold spell in early May. The Scandinavian HP can deliver in May but it's not much cop for eastern coastal counties if the sea temperatures are still low - it's the ideal time to visit the Hebrides I'm told.

Evening all Thought I would take a night off from model watching. More than a hint of spring in lowland East London today but the quickening breeze this evening a harbinger of a more unsettled spell starting tomorrow and lasting, well, 3-5 days at least. Beyond that, a return of heights from the south west for mid moth and just beyond but the position and orientation of said heights a long way from resolution (well it was two nights ago). Has an additional 48 hours provided clarity? Let's see. T+144 and T+240 charts first from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel: T+144 (March 15th): T+240 (March 19th): A broad divide between the American models and the Europeans/Canadians (as we often see). The GFS OP and Parallel are quicker at clearing the trough east over Scandinavia and building the ridge from the south west towards Scandinavia. From there, ECM and GFS OP and Parallel all end up in the same place with the sore of heights close to or just to the east of the British Isles. There's a light E'ly flow for southern England but calm conditions elsewhere. However, GEM goes very much its own way building heights to Greenland and bringing a cold NE'ly flow by T+240 with -8 uppers for northern and eastern Britain which would be a real wintry feel. It's never wise to wholly discount GEM and it'll be interesting to see if this evolution is an outlier in the coming days. Moving on to the latter third of month and the approach to Easter, the T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 22nd): T+384 (March 25th): Certainly plenty of interest in far FI tonight with all three GFS perturbations raising strong heights close to Greenland and while OP keeps an ESE'ly, it's a straight line N'ly for Parallel and a nice cold trough on Control. CFS goes its own way keeping the Atlantic in charge but GFS is clearly sniffing something (aren't we all) as far as the latter part of the month is concerned and those hoping for a straight line progression into spring may be disappointed. Could we be looking at even more delayed impacts from January's SSW or is this a trop-led development? Either way, it keeps plenty of interest for the days to come.

Evening all One of those typical spring days where it's warm in the sun and out of the wind but pretty cold in the wind and out the sun. Nothing unusual in that - nor in the immediate evolution to a more unsettled pattern in the next week. From there, indications continue of a renewed rise in pressure over or close to the British Isles as we move into the second part of March. Let's look at this evening's meteorological entrails. T+144 and T+240 from GEM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively: T+144 (March 13th): T+240 (March 17th): The overall pattern pretty well set with an active trough to the north of the British Isles at T+144 bringing strong WNW'ly air flow according to the American models and a more WSW'ly according to GEM with the trough elongated more to the south over the British Isles. Heights duly build from the south west and both GEM and Parallel end with the core of heights over the British Isles by T+240. OP keeps a much stronger northern arm to the jet and that maintains heights over Europe and the British Isles continues in a mild SW'ly. Moving on with the T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 20th): T+384 (March 23rd): Once again, it's the old question of where do you put the HP? Parallel ends up fantastic for cold fans with the HP over Scandinavia and a decent late cold wave. Control is much slower and OP brings back the Atlantic pretty quickly. The rise in heights from T+240 looks set but where it all ends up is still a long way from resolution.

Evening all A calm but chill day in lowland East London but more "dramatic" weather is on the cards next week with a spell of Atlantic-dominated unsettled weather but not last ing long with clear signs of renewed heights just after mid month on last evening's output. As for tonight, let's open the box and look inside. T+144 and T+240 charts to start from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively. T+144 (March 12th) T+240 (March 16th): At T+144 there's strong agreement on a mobile and strong W'ly pattern across the British Isles. Strong winds in the north but breezy elsewhere with fast moving showers or longer spells of rain. From there, Parallel builds heights to the south and west but keeps a strong Atlantic with a deep LP near Iceland by T+240. The other models develop HP close to the British Isles (or even over the British Isles in the case of GFS OP). GEM looks to build a ridge into Scandinavia and has a N'ly over eastern England while ECM also has a weak N'ly. Moving on to T+312 and T+384 from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 19th): T+384 (March 22nd): Not much to go on there - GFS OP would be fantastic for coldies and Control not too bad but Parallel seems the most keen tonight to maintain the Atlantic influence while CFS builds and HP close to the British Isles. Looks like a stormy spell next week followed by heights rising from the south west by T+240 but from there nothing as yet resolved (as you might expect).

Evening all Another chilly day in lowland East London but the settled spell looks to be in its last days as next week looks much more unsettled and it may be we are in for a prolonged spell of mobile and unsettled conditions. The signal earlier in the week for a settled spell mid month looked to have faded last evening but both the GEM and ECM yesterday offered some possible routes to amplification in the medium term. On then to tonight's ramblings and let's look at T+144 and T+240 from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively: T+144 (March 11th): T+240 (March 15th): A lot of agreement across the models this evening. A brief but quite stormy period of Atlantic-driven weather starts early next week and persists for 3-5 days with deep LP crossing just to the north of the British Isles and the potential for some strong winds as well as rain and snow for hills and mountains especially in Scotland and northern England. From there, the Atlantic jet quickly slows again and this allows heights to rise from the south west and while ECM is more muted in bringing the Azores HP into play, GEM and both GFS OP and Parallel have distinct HP cells moving towards southern Britain and by T+240 these are either over northern France or near to Iberia. With the heights comes a relaxation in both wind and rain and rising temperatures as a more TM air flow takes over (again ECM is the most muted of the models retaining a weak but shallow trough from southern Iceland to Scandinavia). Moving on and the T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 18th): T+384 (March 21st): After last night's flirtation with a more mobile evolution, the anticyclonic model is back with a vengeance this evening with a strong signal for height rises after mid month. The old conundrum is then where does the HP set up. Op and Parallel go with HP to the east which allows for a benign S'ly draw (not sure about Parallel's Atlantic hurricane at T+384). Control shows what a quieter northern jet can mean as the heights build further north and instead of a benign SE'ly, we get a chilly NE'ly across the south. CFS goes its own way and puts the core of heights to the south west. Both CFS and GFS OP keep a stronger northern jet while Parallel and Control have something rather weaker. I noticed this last evening but Parallel has a significantly weaker and warmer 10HPA profile further into FI than OP - I don't know if this is manifesting in slower zonal wind speeds on the Parallel but it's what you would expect later in March whereas OP keeps a more robust and colder vortex for longer.

Indeed and I think it highly likely northern hills and mountains will see a lot of spring snow this year. The signal for a height rise mid month has faded on GFS but both GEM and particularly ECM look more interesting tonight. The problem is the PV looks stronger later this year and the only chance for those further south is if we can get some negative trough alignment but I don't see it currently - the zonal jet in the next 10-14 days looks far too strong but as you say April can often surprise.

Evening all A chilly old day again in lowland East London and we look set for a week or so of below average temperatures (not spectacularly so as happened last month) but I think we should be at 10-12c and we'll be at 6-9c for a few days. The settled spell looks set to continue through the weekend but next week the Atlantic returns perhaps only briefly but it could be quite a potent spell of rain or wind before heights rise again around mid month but where they end up was a long way from resolution last evening. As a wise man once said, you're never more than 24 hours from another day so let's see what T+144 and T+240 might look like courtesy of GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel. T+144 (March 10th): T+240 (March 14th): The Atlantic takeover is evident across all the models by T+144 with GEM and GFS OP perhaps most progressive at having the core of the trough closest to the meridian. From there, the American models keep the strong Atlantic them through to T+240 but with the trough aligning positively to the west as heights start to raise from the south and south west. GEM and ECM are rather different with signs of amplification. GEM looks to be developing a mid-Atlantic ridge with a shallow LP moving south east down the North Sea but the heights on ECM are further west over Scandinavia with a secondary LP well to the south east of the main trough just to the west of Iberia. Both are potentially interesting evolutions. Moving on and let's see if GFS plays catch up or not with T+312 and T+384 charts from OP, Parallel and Control plus CFS: T+312 (March 17th): T+384 (March 20th): If I had to sum up those eight charts in one word, I'd say "mobile". Atlantic domination supported by a strong PV pulsing very cold air and promoting cyclogenesis and sustaining a powerful zonal jet. Indeed, these wouldn't be out of place in January but the near SSW this year has left the PV stronger later than you might expect and the consequence is whereas you might be seeing some amplification whether cold or warm there's little of that and instead the Atlantic flattens any attempt at heights. It could well be we'll have a stronger PV for longer - OP certainly suggests that at 10HPA, Parallel perhaps less so. That might mean the stormy midwinter conditions become stormy spring conditions and of course with spring tides due the last time some areas will need is or are heavy rain and strong winds.

Evening all Well, we're on another page so perhaps a flicker of interest or perhaps not? Chilly in lowland East London today and slightly surprised by a spell of rain this afternoon - the first for two and a half weeks. Three or four colder days ahead before a slow rise in temperatures from Monday. Beyond that, it looked last evening like a brief unsettled spell but clear signs of a return of heights and settled conditions around of just after mid-month. Let's see what tonight's obfuscations provide - T+144 and T+240 charts from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively: T+144 (March 9th): T+240 (March 13th): As the HP from the coming weekend declines away early next week, the Atlantic gathers from the west with LP moving in from the west and north west. Parallel has the strongest initial storm but both GEM and ECM have vigorous secondary LP approaching by T+144. From there, however, quite a divergence in evolution. GEM maintains the strong Atlantic flow while GFS OP puts the trough over Scandinavia and builds heights to the south west. Both ECM and Parallel slow the Atlantic very quickly and have cut off LP features with heights building. The indications therefore any Atlantic incursion could be a 3-5 day affair next week. Moving on to the T+312 and T+384 charts for a glimpse at what might be occurring around and after the middle of the month. Charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 16th): T+384 (March 19th): Clear and growing signal for a return of HP and more settled conditions at mid month and beyond but as usual the big question for those wanting either cold or warmth will be where the HP sets up. OP has the HP just to the east or south east so draws up a warm SSE'ly but Parallel has the HP over Scandinavia and a much colder E'ly draw across southern Britain. Control and CFS keep the HP more to the south west and a tad more Atlantic influence especially or north western areas.

Evening all Still on the same page as last night - well, it's a long time since that has happened. A chilly old day in lowland East London and a cooler if not colder period for the rest of the week and up to next Monday. London should have 12c as the maximum in early march but 6-7c looks more likely as a chilly NE'ly precedes the lobe of heights coming off Greenland. Not much clarity beyond T+144 last night as there were plenty of options for the HP to decline south east, south west or in situ. Let's see uf this is resolved as it will dictate the onward evolution as he head toward and past mid month. The usual mid range charts from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel to begin with: T+144 (March 8th): T+240 (March 12th): Still some resolution required at T+144. GEM and ECM are quick to decline the heights to the south east and for the Atlantic trough to extend across the British Isles but both GFS OP and Parallel attempt a weak Scandinavian HP which keeps settled conditions a day or so longer but it makes little difficult as the Atlantic LP deepens strongly and moves from west to east to the north of the British Isles. That ushers in a more mobile period of weather with alternating LP and HP systems in what looks an active jet by T+240. GFS OP has a strong PM air flow while ECM is building in heights and both GEM and Parallel are between systems. Plenty of strong or very strong winds and rain for all areas. Moving further ahead, is this stormy spring period set to continue? Charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 15th): T+384 (March 18th): A definite signal the unsettled spell will be brief with a return of HP around or just after mid month. The PV should be starting to weaken by mid March (signs of that in far FI) and if that slows the zonal jet the opportunity for amplification will exist again and that may be what we are seeing though it's early days. Some brief colder spells as LP systems move east but little for cold fans to get excited about in the evening's output.

Evening all Certainly a chillier feel here in lowland East London today and I expect quite a chilly week as the HP forming off Greenland sinks south pushing a cold NE'ly air flow in front of it. From there, it looked a quick journey to a very mobile and unsettled Atlantic-driven evolution with the jet quite far south and some quite cold air over Scotland in particular promising some spring snow for the mountains. Let's see where tonight leaves us. T+144 and T+240 from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and Parallel to start: T+144 (March 7th): T+240 (March 11th): To be honest, I'm not seeing much clarity even at T+144. The HP sinks south over the British Isles but it seems a lack of clarity as to what happens then. GEM, to be fair, has been consistent in bringing in a stormier and more unsettled scenario and sticks very much to that tonight. GEM keeps the trough negatively aligned but ECM doesn't so much and both GFS OP and Parallel are even less keen on negative alignment with stronger European heights and WSW'ly winds rather than the NW'ly flow with GEM. Moving on and T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 14th) T+384 (March 17th): Not much help there and I'm not surprised given the lack of clarity so close to T+0. Tonight, I'm as confused as I've been for a while - the current week looks clear enough but what happens once the HP comes over the British Isles is far from resolved - will it decline SE, SW or in situ? I do think GEM has been consistent for several days over the direction of travel and that's where I'd put my money (and very nice money it is too).

Evening all A chillier start in lowland East London before the sun broke through at lunchtime. It looks as though it will be a chilly weekend next weekend - a long way from BTFE to be fair. From there, it looks likely the Atlantic will break through as we head to mid month but let's see what tonight's procrastinations have to offer. T+144 and T+240 charts to start from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel T+144 (March 6th): T+240 (March 10th): A fair amount of agreement tonight. The HP which comes off Greenland next week quickly sinks south to the British Isles by the weekend and is close to or just to the east over the North Sea by T+144. From there, everyone gets to the same place which is a much more unsettled Atlantic driven evolution by T+240. The journeys are slightly different but the net effect is a much more unsettled, wetter and windier spell from the middle of next week onward. The LP look on quite a southerly track so it could be good for snowfall for mountains and higher hills in the north. Moving on to T+312 and T+384 from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 13th): T+384 (March 16th): Plenty of options on offer once again in far FI. More than a hint of new amplification and height rises around mid month - certainly nothing very cold and no long fetch SW'lies either. The journey beyond T+240 certainly a long way from being resolved as you might expect.

Evening all It looks like another quiet evening on the Model Output Discussion thread but there were clear signs of a brief colder interlude next weekend as a lobe of HP broke off from Greenland and headed south across the British Isles before declining and allowing milder air back in. As always, we'll start with the medium range charts from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel. T+144 (March 5th): T+240 (March 9th): At T+144, the models all look on the same page. The HP is moving quickly down over the British Isles with an accompanying push of much colder air as the NE'ly air flow moves down in front of the HP cell (-8 850s widely across the British Isles by T+144). From there, we have two scenarios - GEM, GFS OP and Parallel all have the HP declining quickly south west and opening the door to the Atlantic trough to move in from the north west. GFS OP and GEM have a notable negative alignment on the trough - Parallel is less certain. On its own tonight is ECM with a more complex evolution keeping the HP cell just to the north west of the British isles a little longer. As it declines south west, the Atlantic doesn't fill the gap and a new ridge moves up from the south west but the cold air persists. Moving on and the longer range T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel and Control as well as CFS: T+312 (March 12th): T+384 (March 15th): As you might expect, no strong signal as we move toward mid month. The models suggest a longer or shorter period of Atlantic dominance with some cold and stormy conditions possible - Parallel looks particularly chill approaching mid month. It's hard to see a clear trend. It certainly looks as though we will see something much colder later this week and over the weekend as the sinking HP from Greenland pushes a NE'ly air flow in front of it down across the British Isles. From there, a period of Atlantic dominance which itself looks quite cold and stormy is the favoured outcome before perhaps a more settled trend mid month. Those who thought we had seen the last of winter a fortnight ago might be in for a surprise as the week develops.

Some cold March spells I can recall - starting with late March 1975 - I remember going out with my mother on Maundy Thursday and while I don't remember any snow, the temperature was around freezing all day: Then came mid March 1978 - Cheltenham Gold Cup day was lost and I remember 3-4" of snow in south London. This was Easter Sunday 2008 and a good 2" of snow even in lowland East London: On to March 2013 and a remarkable Monday 11th - an ice day in east London but no snow though it snowed on the Kent coast and as others have said a huge snowfall for the Channel Islands:

Evening all Up to three pages this evening - a twitch on the thread for a final push of cold or a false evening dawn (so to speak)? There were signs in far FI last evening of a significant pattern change to a much colder, more unsettled and stormier scenario - not atypical of March to be fair but a notable change from the current benign anticyclonic environment. In the more immediate, the T+144 and T+240 charts from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel. T+144 (March 4th): T+240 (March 8th): Unanimity at T+144 across the models as a lobe of heights breaks off from Greenland and develops to the north or north west of the British Isles but it doesn't hang around there unfortunately and sinks down over the British Isles. ECM moves the HP to the south west but retains it as the main feature influencing the British Isles. GEM withdraws the HP further south west allowing an Atlantic trough to move in from the west but there's more than a hint of upstream amplification by T+240. Parallel also declines the HP south west but with a shallow LP over Iberia there's a hint of an E'ly along the Channel. GFS OP goes in a different direction moving the HP east to Denmark with a SE'ly airflow by T+240. The short term remains settled but with a push of colder air over next weekend. Moving on and T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS: T+312 (March 11th): T+384 (March 14th): A varied set of output in the longer term as we head toward mid March. Both GFS OP and CFS keep with the stormy scenario with LP close to the British Isles and a cold PM airmass in charge. Parallel keeps heights to the east so the British isles enjoys a warmer S'ly air flow with the trough held to the west while Control is a messy scenario with a cut off LP over southern England and Northern France and heights building to the north of that. While it's no Beast by any stretch, it certainly will feel more like winter next weekend as HP briefly sets up to the north or north west and feeds in a colder airflow off the North Sea and Scandinavia. There's no signal for that to last at this time with the HP sinking south and then either southwest or east depending on which model you follow. From there, some models want to bring in a strong Atlantic presence but it would be "cold zonality" but that's far from the only option on the table at this time but none of this has been resolved as you would expect.

Evening all Rather like England in the cricket, everyone seems to be all out after tea so the thread seems deathly quiet. The stalwart coldies are hopefully keeping the faith for one final shot of something special this spring - it woudn't be unusual to have some colder weather in March or even early April and I've seen snow on the ground in East Ham on March 31st so it's a long way from being "over" whatever updates ne chooses to read or ignore. As usual, it's the T+144 and T+240 charts first from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel T+144 (March 3rd): T+240 (March 7th): Growing divergence across the models after an extended period of relative unanimity. The HP which develops over the British Isles this weekend soon declines south east into Europe but projects a ridge back north west towards heights over Greenland - both ECM and GFS OP show this quite clearly. GEM quickly collapses any heights as the trough moves NE into Scandinavia but with renewed amplification at T+240 there's a PM airflow from the west by T+240 and a possibility of a more direct N'ly. ECM moves the HP down to the North Sea and that's where it stays supported by a shallow LP to the south west of the British Isles. GFS OP is the best for coldies -a lobe of energy from the Atlantic trough is detached and slides SE into France with heights to the north and we get an E'ly with uppers generally below -4 and even below -8 over eastern Scotland. Parallel also manages to get some cold air in to be fair. On then to the T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control an CFS: T+312 (March 10th): T+384 (March 13th): Clear hints of a significant pattern change going into March. With the exception of Parallel, which does keep the anticyclonic pattern, the other models all show a much stronger vortex and a series of stormy LP moving south towards or over the British Isles. It would be a case of the lamb followed by the lion to paraphrase the normal parlance for March. I'm not suggesting widespread lowland snow but I am suggesting significant snowfall for mountains and other high ground especially from both OP and Control. It's a trend we've seen in recent days and it seems to be developing and is one to watch.