stodge

Afternoon all 33c here in lowland East London and looking at Arpege, has it backed off some of the really high values forecast a day or so back? First two are from the 06Z run, last one is from the 00Z. The curiousity is the heat being "confiend" to the southern coastal counties suggesting an onshore flow for eastern areas and that keeping London fractionally cooler. The WRF 06Z also suggests a change in the heat profile from the more traditional broad push north of the classic plume to a more sharply defined event for the far SE.

33c here in lowland East London and a faint NE'ly breeze off the Estuary, aided by low humidity, means out of the sun it's very pleasant. That suggests we won't reach last Friday's 36c though ask me again in a couple of hours.

Evening all I confess I'm NOT looking forward to the next few days of heat down here in lowland East London. I am hoping the Estuary will provide a little cooling breeze which means the east of the capital is usually a degree or so cooler than the west in scenarios like this. Tomorrow looks like being the hottest day and values of 35-37c are being widely forecast for London. Will it be hotter than last Friday? Given we are almost exactly seventeen years on from the 2003 heatwave, a value of 38c can't be ruled out and if the record went tomorrow I wouldn't be surprised though having three of the four hottest days on record within a 14 month period should be of note. :Looking a little further on into early next week and our old mate Arpege keeps the oven full on for Monday: That suggests to this observer a less than cloudless aspect but perhaps not. Humidity is surprisingly low and I do know that when we get LP over Iberia it doesn't stop the skies being clear and the sun shining strongly and maybe this is the same so colour me confused. GFS is much less keen on Monday heat: I have to say I'm none the wiser - lowish humidity with lowish pressure. No one seems to be ruling out a shower or a thunderstorm whether home-grown or imported. Maybe the Humidity Index is more indicative of how unpleasant it's going to be in my part of the world. To cap it all, we're going for a roast lunch on Saturday - mad dogs and Englishmen as they say....

Evening all It looks as though we shall have to endure 5-6 days of oppressive heat and increasing humidity down here in lowland East London. That said, it looks as though the story of this "hot spell" will be more about storms and heat rather than sun and heat especially as we move into next week. ECM 12Z OP at T+120 and we see the airflow shift more to the SE than a due S'ly but the top of the plume is over the far south and there could well be some sharp storms coming off that. GFS 12Z OP at the same time: If this were January, we'd all be trying to work out how much snow the south might get. Once again, the trough has split the two HP cells and there's more than a hint of thunder. 12Z GEM at the same time: Not wildly different as you might expect. The location and orientation of the HP cell will be significant in determining airflow and any trough activity. Finally, UKMO at T+120 for a change and again it's not radically different. So, it looks like a scorchingly sunny Friday before a slight relaxation in the heat Saturday and then a renewed pulse of heat but more humid and unstable from Sunday to Tuesday with a growing risk of storms before a merciful return to something more seasonal next midweek. Not much fun for those of us who don't like heat and high humidity but it happens every so often (though not so much this year).

Evening all After last night's model volatility and variability, where are we this fine summer's evening (at least in lowland East London)? ECM 12Z OP pushes the hottest of the weather to next Wednesday - the T+192 chart: This looks like a humid and thundery rather than a hot and sunny chart - the HP has eroded to both east and west but nothing is happening too quickly so any storms are going to be locally significant. The animated 850HPA chart on the GFS 12Z OP tells its own story - oscillations of heat from Iberia through France but coming up just short. The 20c 850 line never gets to the UK so very warm certainly but not hot. The T+192 has an E'ly not a S'ly so again the accent is on very warm, humid and possibly thundery conditions especially for the south but as always with an E'ly, the further north and west, the better for settled weather. GEM still keeps the heat on Tuesday next week and by Wednesday: Growing agreement on the trough developing to the south so cutting off the direct feed of hot air - I suspect rather than strong heat we'll see high humidity and a growing risk of storms.

As the usual fans of heat are salivating, I think we can assume there's plenty in the evening output to get them excited. I'll cast my somewhat more jaundiced view over the gruel dished up thus far: ECM 12Z certainly brings a spell of very warm weather starting from Friday and especially for southern areas. The 20c 850hpa briefly crosses the south coast on Tuesday so that looks the peak of the heat before at T+240 it all eases away. As for the synoptics, as the HP builds into Scandinavia, the air source swings from NE through E to SE bringing up the heat but as the trough takes over the air becomes more unstable - a nice storm for midweek next week? Now, as for GFS 12Z OP, let me introduce you to chalk vs cheese as we compare ECM at the same time: GFS brings the Azores HP back in from the Atlantic keeping all that "lovely" heat trapped to the south. Probably more settled with GFS - the problem is if you want the heat you want the HP to the east, not to the SW. Here's GEM at T+192: There you have it - at T+192 three wildly divergent evolutions. A more pronounced trough so showers or thunderstorms for many especially in the south. Anyone who is banking on record temperatures next week better hope ECM is correct - and you'd be foolish to dismiss it - but I wasn't convinced yesterday and I'm not convinced today.

Afternoon all I see I riled a couple of people because I have the temerity to a) not be a big fan of heat and b) not to see the "record breaking" charts some on here seem to say (the wonder of the GEFS). The GFS 06Z OP doesn't scream "record breaking heat" to me at all. The problem with the synoptics is if you build an HP to the east, fine, you get a draw of hot air from the south but nature abhors a vacuum and if you don't get a strong enough build through the British Isles the European trough moves north and fills the gap bringing cooler air and the likelihood of storms (which will please others on here). This is the example of the LP filling the gap. Indeed, what often happens is we see a shallow LP forming in the North Sea which pulls in a N'ly airflow and sends the heat back south. Alternatively, as the HP is displaced north and the Azores HP tries to ridge NE, the LP becomes more influential from the south and a S'ly becomes an E'ly. Very warm, yes, thundery, quite possibly but hot, I don't see it. This is all however far from resolved as we know.

Afternoon all While the fans of heat are getting excited (it is August after all), I'm far from convinced. Once again, both the ECM 00Z and GFS 06Z OP runs show a second pulse of heat moving north out of Iberia next Friday and into Saturday. The 20C 850hpa flirts tantalisingly with the south coast but soon falls away The GFS Parallel 00Z pushes that a bit further north (more akin to yesterday) as does the 00Z GEM. As we all have different interpretations, expectations and measures (it seems) of what constitutes "warm", "very warm" and "hot" everyone's view of what might happen will very. For me "hot" is 30-35c and "very hot" above that. Yesterday was very hot, the next plume looks more in the "hot" category and may settle back to nearer "very warm" (25-30c).

Yes, well, as one short-lived heatwave moves off, we start looking at the next one. GFS 12Z is a case of "close but no cigar" - warm yes but the 20c 850hpa line stays just to the south. GEM is much the same. ECM 12Z is rolling out and, as is often the case, more of a friend for the fans of heat. Even so, it looks as though, for now, and I'm sure it will change a lot in the coming days, the heat may not quite be as extensive as it has been today.

Topped off at 36c here in East London - unpleasant but not as humid as it could have been. As always, a little bit of breeze off the river helped a fraction. I reckon we'll reach 40c one day in the next twenty years either in London or somewhere in East or South-East England. Three of the five hottest days have been in the past five years - make of that what you will.

Evening all An uninspiring ECM 12Z. Just a chance for some warm air to transit the far SE at T+216 but that's wishful thinking at this stage and the end of July and into August maintain the cool and unsettled theme for many with a lot of rain for the far NW of Scotland (not unusual). GFS 12Z OP also moderate - I imagine some will be pinning their hopes on a "plume" at T+372 - good luck with that. Control somewhat better as it finally breaks the Azores HP cell and sends it NE to the British Isles but that's far FI so we'll see. Just seen GEM 12Z OP - well, yes.

Evening all Have to say I've enjoyed much of July - pleasantly cool, low humidity and generally useable weather. Contrary to some, I've enjoyed sitting out most evenings for a while. On a completely unrelated, the "best" hayfever season I've had for two or three decades. I had three bad weeks in mid-May into early June but from then onward I have hardly sniffed or sneezed let alone had the usual problems of itchy eyes and the rest. Theories? The decline in pollution caused by the pandemic - I've long believed pollution exacerbates hay fever as the pollens react with the particulates. More suitable weather? Possibly - less of that hot, still, humid weather always welcome but I'm less convinced. A very mild winter causing the grasses to which I'm allergic to sprout early? - Again, can't rule that out. I'd be interested to hear the experiences of other grass pollen sufferers.

Evening all The Azores HP continues to "pulse" ridges towards southern Britain from the SW but they aren't persisting and towards the end of next week general agreement on a retreat of HP and LP (shallow to be honest) rolling in from the Atlantic to take us to the end of the month and what would be a fairly disappointing July in truth. Looking at the CFS 12Z through into early August (yes, I know), I'm not filled with optimism. The problem seems to be residual heights over Greenland which are forcing the jet further south and the accompanying LP systems are moving much closer to the British Isles while the Azores HP, despite continual efforts to ridge in from the SW, is beaten back by the jet and retreating back to re-gather for another go. The other aspect of heights to the NW is the Scandinavian trough which is persisting to the NE and keeping any hot air to the south and the British Isles often in cooler N'ly air. I do wonder if we need a bit of hurricane energy to shake things up which could mean a decent autumn but that's just supposition.

Evening all Time for my occasional meander among the model output. Tonight we'll look at some T+216 charts so well into next week. That's the 12Z output from ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control respectively. Plenty of heat in the output especially in the preceding days and much talk of 30c being breached for the first time this year. To help out, the same charts and models as above but this time the 850s: GEM is clearly the hottest with the 20c isotherm across the south east by Saturday week. That would mean another day with maxima of 30c or more in London. That said, there's plenty of hint of a shallow trough on the 500hpa chart from GEM so perhaps thundery or indeed very thundery rather than hot and sunny. ECM is very different - the heat has gone or is just exiting eastern and south eastern parts leaving a fresher WNW'ly flow with rain or showers. GFS OP keeps the British Isles in the col with the heat just to the south so again a hint of something disturbed and Control not too much different with very light winds and a col between the pressure systems. Moving further ahead, Control soon brings back the Atlantic with the jet coming south and the Azores HP dragged south as well leaving the British Isles quite unsettled. OP is not pleasant viewing for fans of summer heat - an LP develops over the British Isles and basically remains in situ so rain or showers for many as we go into July. I confess I don't enjoy heat and humidity but at least I'm currently not using London's own mobile sauna - surface temperatures of 30-35c can be increased to 40-45c on the Underground and I believe 50c has been recorded in the deeper tunnels on the Piccadilly and Northern lines.

Evening all Just time for a quick glance through the 12Z output. It does seem as though fans of settled weather have won a key battle with the first attempt by the LP to the NW to move SE through the British Isles blocked by the Azores ridge moving strongly NE. The problem is the ridge is then split apart with one part of the HP cell heading NE into Scandinavia and that allows the shallow trough over Europe and the main trough to the NW to join forces and break the settled spell over the UK but that's at T+240 and as we know it's an eternity away. As the current showery LP fills up during the week we have a brief col with very light winds before the Azores HP comes in over the coming weekend and ushers in 3-4 days of fine settled conditions - pleasantly warm but not thankfully too hot.

Evening all Chance to have a look at the evening output after another curious day weather wise here in East London. An ESE'ly wind with a lot of cloud but no significant rain. Looking ahead to next weekend and beyond what do the T+216 charts offer us this evening? Charts for Sunday June 21st from ECM, GEM, GFS Control and GFS OP Fairly easy to spot the odd model out and that's Control. The others are all bringing or have brought LP in from the Atlantic with ECM having a broad but shallow trough and GEM (as is often the case) a deeper and more defined LP centre over Ireland. GFS OP has a weak ridge but that is declining as a shallow LP moves in from the NW. Control is very different with a ridge from the Azores HP over NW Britain and a weak NE'ly flow over eastern areas. Most places would be fine with plenty of sunshine and pleasantly warm but that does look the outsider. Moving on, ECM T+240 is the GEM chart at T+216 above while GEM (and this might be a concern) has the LP stationary over the British Isles. If we get an LP filling in situ over several days that provides a good environment for showers or storms with all that follow. Control puts the British Isles in the battleground between troughs to the east and west and ridges to the north and south. The south does pretty well hanging on to fine weather but western coasts would see rain. OP is oddly enough a much better picture in further FI. The LP tries to come SE but is repulsed as the Azores HP builds in a ridge across southern Britain - the LP ends up spinning impotently to the far NW as the ridge builds through the British Isles keeping the weather fine and settled. Warm yes, indeed pleasantly so but not hot as the orientation of the ridge keeps the heat well to the south.

Evening all A better day in lowland East London to be fair but where will the middle of next week find us in terms of the weather. Perhaps the evening's 12Z model output will help - perhaps it won't. T+192 tonight I think: Charts for next Wednesday afternoon, June 17th from respectively - ECM, GFS OP, GFS Control, JMA and GEM The broad pattern remains the same - heights to the NE and SW and pressure lower to the NW and SE. The British Isles in the col between the pressure systems. ECM would be fine for many with a gentle NE'ly for southern parts but GFS OP has the trough more defined close to the British Isles so unsettled with rain or showers for many. Control throws a weak ridge of HP from the Azores so decent conditions if cooler with a light N'ly breeze. JMA keeps the ridge to the NW and the trough to the SE as the dominant feature so rain or showers most likely for the SE and fair elsewhere and GEM not dissimilar. The difference seems to be the influence of the European trough and the scope for any weak ridge from the west but there's a lot still to be decided at the medium range. Looking further ahead for trends, ECM ends with the stand off continuing and the British Isles in the col. GEM ends more positively for those wanting settled weather with a ridge building NE from the Azores and a sense of a more "normal" pattern re-emerging. GFS Control is very different from GEM and ends with the warmth from the east struggling to move in across the British Isles and a very slack pressure gradient in situ. GFS OP is similar to GEM and restores a degree of normality with the Atlantic systems coming through and the Azores HP building the ridge NE but it's only a ridge and while warm and settled the real heat is kept far to the south.

Evening all An uninspiring day here in East London and the chill of the weekend remains - the forecast looks warmer and wetter though any storm will have to go some to beat Saturday afternoon's spectacular. Moving on through the middle of the month, what might the second half of June hold? T+192 tonight from the usual suspects and the 12Z suite: GEM, GFS Control, GFS OP, ECM and JMA This takes us to next Tuesday, the first day of Royal Ascot. Still plenty of heights to the north and north east and the Azores HP not really an influence. ECM has moved the cut off LP further to the south alloowing weak heights over SE England and the Low Countries but the main pattern seems to be to keep pressure lower over or just to the south of the British Isles. GEM puts the shallow LP right over England while Control links the trough over the British Isles back to the icelandic LP. A slack pattern so warm enough for most and perhaps humid with the continuing risk of showers or storms for southern areas while haar affects eastern counties leaving the best weather for north western areas. Moving on and both GEM and ECM bring LP in much closer to the British Isles by the Thursday suggesting any settled conditions will be transient with further rain for many. Further ahead still, GFS OP maintains the overall pattern with the trough negatively aligned keeping the Azores HP of no value and suggesting further LP development SE from Iceland into Europe. Control keeps things pretty much the same as well though with the fascinating evolution of developing the LP in central Europe and sending that NW toward the British Isles forcing the Atlantic LP back west and replacing it with a warm NE'ly which you don't see every day.

Evening all We seem to have some new models (or versions thereof) in the mix so let's see how they go. With ECM still rolling out let's see where we are at T+192 on the 12Z suite: The suspects tonght are GFS Control, GFS OP, GEM, JMA and ECM A bit of a mixed bag thought all have heights to the north or north-east and pressure low to the SW. GEM, as it often does, deepens the LP into quite a significant feature for the time of year but it's held far enough west to allow a warm SW'ly flow over the British Isles. JMA keeps the LP closer so an unsettled SE'ly flow with rain or showers especially for the south and west. GFS OP also has a small LP to the SW while Control has a broader but shallower trough to the west or north west allowing a slack SE'ly flow over northern parts. ECM is the exception as it often is with a ridge extending south from a larger area of HP developing to the south of Svalbard (or is it Spitsbergen, I can never remember). Anyway, we get a warm ESE'ly thought that would keep haar troubling eastern coasts but warm and sunny inland. Further into FI, GEM keeps the Atlantic LP spinning round to our west and weak heights developing to the south east so an increasingly warm scenario. GFS Control is not dissimilar with heights finally returning the Azores HP to southern Britain and northern France. Even the OP eventually brings the Azores HP more into play so we could be well into a 10-14 day unsettled and often wet and also often warm period before the Azores HP finally gets its act together and ridges back in from the SW. All up in the air (where else would it be?) for now but some positive signs for those already hankering for more settled conditions.

Evening all A fascinating day weather wise in lowland East London. Cool and very breezy and then a significant thunderstorm late afternoon. The secondary LP over the Wash and North Norfolk generated a real rash of heavy showers but the rain has been most welcome and needed after the prolonged dry spell. I suspect we'll have nothing quite as unseasonal going forward but what does the future hold in terms of the models? Tonight I'll take the T+192 charts across the 12Z models: In no particular order (except the order from left to right) - JMA, GFS Control, GFS OP, GEM and ECM I noted last night the JMA was playing with dropping the trough south to the west of the British Isles but the favoured option still seems to develop the LP to the south of the British Isles (indeed in the Channel) and bring the Atlantic trough to join it pushing the HP cells well to the SW and to the NE. It's an unsettled picture especially for southern Britain into next weekend with periods of rain, showers or storms - not, to be fair, as chilly as today. Indeed, there's some quite warm air in the mix with +8 to +12 850s across the models so perhaps humid and that might augment the instability to mean more prolonged and heavier rain. Not an unusual pattern for June but perhaps (and I offer this only as a thought) still related to the fallout from the sudden collapse of the PV back in April. Northern blocking remains very much in evidence and we've yet to transition to the full summer weather pattern. The Azores HP has been suppressed by northern blocking and the Atlantic is largely moribund. We would normally expect heat to come from points south - the classic "plume" from North Africa and Iberia via France but this time we're looking to the east for our heat. 850s of +20 over Ukraine moving WNW bringing very warm air to Germany and southern Scandinavia and while mitigated slightly by the North Sea all that does is to bring haar to eastern coastal counties. Moving further ahead, GFS OP and Control try to re-introduce a more familiar pattern by the end of FI with the Azores HP ridging NE across the British Isles on the OP but further south on Control displacing the trough and bringing in a more Atlantic-dominant pattern. This is classic GFS and it's in my view a signal there is no strong signal beyond mid month at this time.

Evening all Like many others, a significant thunderstorm passed through late afternoon bringing some welcome rain. I think there was some embedded hail but not much but it was curious in that the day has been cool and windy and not the conditions from which you would expect a summer downpour to materialise. That little secondary LP which has zipped down over the Wash and across North Norfolk has packed a punch..

To throw another spanner in the works, JMA comes along with another evolution at T+192: Not bad for fans of warmth oddly enough. The trough dropping to the west encourages height rises to the east and a southerly feed.

There are plenty who only post charts showing fine and hot weather.

Evening all A cool if not cold day here in downtown East London - certainly more April than June but it's hardly unusual even if it is a notch unseasonal. So to tonight's ramblings from the models and we'll try T+168 tonight for a change as going out to T+240 gives one or two a fit of the vapours: Tonight's running order: - GFS Control, GFS OP, GEM and ECM (still sizzling): There's a clear division - the American model has gone for a much more settled approach with a ridge from the Azores and Scandinavian HP cells crossing the British Isles keeping most parts fine and dry. GEM and ECM are rather different. Both have heights more to the north than the NE and have a much more influential European trough much closer to the south of Britain. GEM's LP is a bit deeper but a bit further away than the ECM feature but both would keep the south of England cloudy with a risk of rain, showers or storms though perhaps the worst of the conditions reserved for the Channel Islands. Further into FI (T+384 takes us to June 20th), Control maintains the standing pattern of northern heights and the Azores HP trying to ridge NE to the NW of Scotland with pressure low over Europe and a weak NE'ly air flow over the British Isles. OP goes a slightly different pattern which is heights to the NE and SW and lower pressure to the NW and SE with the British Isles in a col (or stuck in the middle if you prefer).

Evening all - had a few problems posting the charts last night so let's see if things are better as we see if the penguin suit will need an outing for Ascot: The T+240 charts for GFS OP, Control, GEM and ECM Some similarities with pressure high to the north and north east but low to the south or south west so a north-south split but not the usual variety. The best of the weather for Scotland and northern Britain with the south closer to the European trough and more at risk from showers or storms. The east coast may suffer from haar but elsewhere pleasantly warm and indeed humid. GEM perhaps the best of the bunch but both GFS and ECM have some form of LP to the SW which may be good news further down the line for heat fans. The Atlantic is moribund.