stodge

Evening all Just back from a week on Corfu and as others have said, Greek weather is far more than heat and warmth. We were on the east coast of the island at a small village called Agios Ioannis Persiteron. roughly half way between Corfu Town and Cavos. For us, a week of three halves...yes, I know. We arrived last Monday and for the first couple of days, the weather was hot and humid with a light NE'ly breeze. Fine and dry with us but huge thunderstorms developed over the Greek and Albanian mainland and some of the cloud reached across to Corfu in the late evening but no rain. On Wednesday, there was a significant change with the wind veering South which brought in much fresher conditions - still dry, sunny and very warm (mid 20s by early afternoon) but lower humidity overall. On Friday we went in to Corfu on a day which saw the return of humidity and we saw a large thunderstorm just offshore to the north and east of the island - Mrs Stodge has an excellent picture of two cruise liners in Corfu harbour with the storm in the background. We heard thunder in Corfu itself but no rain. Saturday started cloudy but became dry and hot by mid afternoon with the wind backing more SW'ly. Sunday brought increasing cloud and wind which presaged this morning's huge thunderstorm which broke over Agios Ioannis at 9.30 bringing strong winds and torrential winds. Our taxi got us to Corfu Airport okay but the airport was a mass of delayed passengers with flights from the UK and elsewhere diverted to Brindisi, Salonika and Athens. Fortunately, our flight made it with only a small delay and we left barely 30 minutes late as the weather cleared and brightened but that was an impressive storm to bid Corfu farewell.

Morning all A bit of a dog's breakfast among the models this morning in my view with not much for anyone. Those desperate for heat won't find that much to encourage and the question, as it has been for some time, is have the models finally got the erosion of northern blocking correct ? At various times in the past couple of weeks, we've seen the output offering a return to more traditional Atlantic-based conditions and the promise of everyone's nirvana, the ridging Azores HP and yet the heights remains stubbornly to the north and the Azores HP is stubbornly far away. ECM tries to bring back the Atlantic AND keep the northern heights but the result is a southerly-tracking jet which does no one any favours. GFS and GEM try to bring in lower pressure as well but all that does is sit over the UK for a couple of days to freshen up the ground for Ascot. GFS keeps the Greenland heights for longer than other models and, to be honest, they've modelled this better in my view than the ever-progressive ECM. It does look as though a col of sorts between the pressure systems offers some possibilities for decent conditions but I see little evidence of anything other than transient heat at best in the next couple of weeks but nothing to worry about - plenty of time as summer hasn't officially started (will do so tomorrow).

Morning all Here in lowland East London, steady and at times torrential rain since 5am. I don't have a rain gauge but there's been a fair soaking already.

Morning all Just the sense from GFS that the northern blocking is being pushed further north with each output and the possibility of LP coming into the south of the British Isles in particular is there but a very slack pattern and a real possibility of a warm SE'ly picking up later next week as the cooler NE'ly flow previously forecast seems to be receding.

Evening all A bit NIMBY-ish as the forecast does look very good for Scotland and much of the north away from the east coast but for the south it looks a long way from some of the rosier prognostications I've been seeing. Plenty of northern blocking with the centre shifting from Scandinavia to Iceland/Greenland as May ends and June begins bringing in more of a NE flow and little sign even in deep FI of the block relinquishing its grip so the threat of more disturbed conditions affecting the south from the Continent remains as heights remain persistently low over Europe.

Afternoon all Yes, the 06Z GFS OP plays the blocking game pretty well and with the LP spinning up from the south and deepening as it does, we might get away with a fair Bank Holiday but next week isn't looking too clever especially for England. Even FI provides little or no relief - only at the furthest reaches does the LP over northern Siberia spin west across the Pole toward Greenland hinting at a lowering of heights but that's an eternity away.

Evening all For me, the big signal from this evening's 12Z OP output has been the return of northern blocking toward the end of the month. GFS has been playing with this option for a while and GEM has come on board as well while ECM admittedly isn't quite there yet. The two options are stalling LP to the west or south west as we saw at the beginning of the week or a southerly tracking jet which of course wouldn't be such good news. I'm concerned at the apparent lowering of heights over Europe which would enable the trough to set up to our south and we all know how that ends..

Evening all A real mixed bag of output this evening but those claiming we are on course for a more settled and warmer spell have had to revise their forecasts somewhat. GFS 12Z OP doesn't look that settled to me and GEM follows along. ECM offers some hope but the concern for this observer is the return of northern blocking keeping the jet to the south. Yes, GFS offers the meridonal possibility of a slowing LP to the SW and a draw of very warm air from the SE albeit with a storm or two as well but the other possibility of LP getting stuck near or over the British Isles can't be ignored. I do think looking at the GEFS Ensembles there's no strong trend for the last third of the month as yet so as ever more output is needed...

Afternoon all I'm wondering if the shower/storm developing between Ashford and the east of Folkestone will intensify as it approaches London. Here in East Ham, it's clouded up in the last hour but no rain as yet. Temperature here reached 23c early afternoon but has slipped back a notch since as the winds have picked up.

Yes, your part of the world will do fine from a NE'ly. My part of the world (lowland East London) not so good and I fear for parts of the east coast of England and Scotland, it won't matter if it's a NE'ly or a SE'ly in terms of mist and low cloud.

Afternoon all Some very reasonable weather upcoming though signs of a return to something cooler as the winds turn more E'ly or even NE'ly later next week. The GFS 06Z OP keeps the theme of Northern Blocking and low European heights far into FI so it looks as though there will be periods of warmth if we get a SE'ly feed and cooler periods if we end up more NE'ly.

Afternoon all Definitely something a good deal warmer for a few days at the end of this week and perhaps a storm or two for those that like that some sort of thing with the SW the favoured location and, as Martin rightly says, not warmth for everyone if that haar sets up down the East Coast. Going further ahead, the concern I have from the morning output is or are the continuing low heights over Europe - both GEM and ECM play this card and to an extent GFS does as well. If the weekend's lower heights simply filter into Europe we will always struggle to get a warm S'ly feed and are much more likely to have heights to the NW and winds from a NE direction. Low European heights in summer are or can be as frustrating as high heights in winter - a kind of reverse Eurotrash or Bartlett as the winter fans would call it.

Has been an interesting couple of days this week. Probably fair to say the intra-day temperature variations have been dramatic. I would guesstimate 10-12c in lowland East London in the sunshine between showers but in the showers probably falling to 3-5c in the heaviest squalls allowing soft hail and I fully expect those with some altitude have had snow falling if not settling. We've had a couple of cold nights as well with only the breeze holding the mercury above freezing. Temperatures which wouldn't be out of place in January at the end of April but we all knew it was likely after a strong El Nino winter.

Afternoon all. Downpour with sleet and soft hail in Esher moving south west. Couldn't confirm snow and only brief in the middle of the squall.

Morning all No point trying to emulate Martin's usual excellent daily analysis of the output so just a few observations from me. GFS OP is a horror show for those wanting warmth - northerly blocking and a southerly jet means if it's not raining now it will be soon. Always the prospect though of one of the LPs slowing down and allowing a feed from the S or SE so a glimmer of hope. ECM OP goes in a very different direction and brings the Azores HP much more into play. A much more settled and warmer output though may not come in time to save the Bank Holiday weekend and, worryingly, keeps getting pushed back. GEM OP an interesting mix as can be the case - the northerly blocking is there but so is the Azores HP so it's a bit of everything really with some fine spells about also some cooler and wetter periods. UKMO downgrades the northern blocking more quickly and while the weekend doesn't look settled the winds are coming from the west rather than the north. One key might be the signal for lowering heights over Europe which allows the Azores HP to ridge north and slows down the movement of LP systems from west to east. ECM does this, GFS doesn't by keeping the stronger jet and the core of LP more over the UK and southern Scandinavia.

Morning all Well, some signs of an erosion of the Greenland heights at the end of next week but far from a done deal as we've seen a couple of attempts modelled before fade away as we enter high-res so another couple of days I think before we can be certain... GEM sends the LP from Denmark NW to Iceland which is very odd while both GFS and ECM take a more gradual approach with the Azores HP ridging NE as the heights lower to the far NW. A plausible evolution but again we aren't there yet. A week or so of below average and sometimes well below average temperatures is booked for us.

Can be very windy there - no question. I was there at Christmas - sunny by day, freezing cold at night. Snow on the nearby mountains - more than most in England saw I imagine and then Boxing Day on the High Roller and incredible views. Hope you were staying somewhere nice on The Strip.

Afternoon all The question for the medium to longer term remains the strength of northern blocking. GEM this morning kept in firmiy in place right through to the end of next week. ECM at the same point this morning had significantly eroded the blocking thanks to that shortwave south of Iceland which allowed the Azores HP to ridge NE and a hint of "normal" service returning. GFS 06Z OP at the same time veering more toward GEM: A lot of options in the Ensemble Members and not all of them cold or blocked by any means though it has to be said the biggest cluster probably closest to the OP (including both the Control and the Parallel). There's a solid 5-7 days of not very pleasant weather ahead it has to be said with temperatures well below where they should be and plenty of rain or showers especially for the east and south with snow to higher altitudes more than likely.

What a fantastic day MY favourite type of weather, fine, cool, clear and with low humidity (currently 52% in London, would prefer to be at Las Vegas levels) today and if only it would continue for the next month or two. Plenty of time for that irritating heat and humidity later.

Evening all Plenty of interest in the night's output: GFS 12Z OP at T+168: ECM at the same time: GEM at the same time: The worry for those looking for warmth is all three models head the same way into FI with colder air pushing SW from Scandinavia on synoptics which, if ever shown in January, would crash the Netweather servers !! To be fair, late April/early May is a time of huge contrasts - it can be very warm and sunny or the opposite and at the moment we're heading full pelt toward the opposite. BUT we aren't there yet, it's still some way off and newer signals could emerge in the next few days...

The likelihood of a colder than average spell in April has been well advertised and would echo the post-El Nino winter of 1998. GFS has however moved away slightly from some of the really cool options but there aren't many, if any, warm options on the 06Z Ensembles at T+240. Basically, it's a toss-up between cool and dry under the influence of HP to the west or north-west or cool and wet with LP over us or close by to the east or south. That's emphatically not to say we won't eke out some decent days - the last couple of days have been good for those areas which have missed the showers and I think early next week we could well see tho or three quite decent days but the warmth many on here want just isn't there (maybe 15-17c next Wednesday at best). The two crumbs are first GFS 06Z OP in deepest FI turns much more settled and warmer but that's a very long way off. Second is that May 1998 was very warm (13.1c) and dry with 25c breached regularly so we could see a sudden and dramatic turn after any cooler spell.

Morning all Clear division in the GFS 00Z Ensemble membership between those keeping heights over Greenland and those not doing so. The OP is in the latter camp but plenty still keeping it very blocked over Greenland with a N'ly flow over the UK. On a quick look, the GEM Ensembles seem to run against the majority and keep heights over Greenland as well so we'll see if a new trend is developing or not. The better news is there does seem a window of fine and settled weather for many in the early part of next week with a feed of warmer air from the SE.

Evening all A quick look at where we might be in the medium term: GFS 12Z OP at T+240: ECM at the same time: GEM: To be honest, all variations on the same theme. HP to the West and North-West. LP to the East. Nothing terribly inspiring - cool and dry in the west. Rain and showers further east and temperaures well down.

Morning all Looking into next week:- ECM 00Z at T+192: GEM: GFS: Not a done deal by any stretch in the medium term. There are really two HP cells - ECM and GEM have the second one already in place to the west (though GEM again is less keen on the Greenland heights) while GFS still has the first cell in place (though that's not a good chart for the south).and the second cell just arriving. GFS FI iis uninspiring again this morning and the end of April isn't looking too clever for those wanting warmth and sunshine but that's an eternity away and it will no doubt change.

Singularity expresses it very well in his previous and the obvious reaction to today's output, so far, is "if only" for coldies. These charts in December/January would have this site in meltdown. The GFS 06Z OP keeps us on the cool side throughout after a brief warmer snap at the weekend. THis is the critical moment for the synoptic evolution. The first HP wanders off east and declines but the second establishes to the NW and effectively stays there. The troughs to the south (the remnant of the current trough) and the north (from Iceland) force the HP back to Greenland and leave us in a N or NE'ly airflow. ECM at 00Z is in a similar place though with the HP more dominant. For fans of warmth, GEM 00Z offers a much better scenario but the critical thing here is GEM removes the Greenland heights very quickly. If GEM have called this right, kudos to the Canadian model and to be fair they've called this week quite well so far. This would be a huge shift for GFS and ECM but the GEM Ensembles have a majority showing this different evolution.