stodge

Clearly some on here don't want to acknowledge this but the signal for the end of the 10-14 day "false spring" is heaving into view. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfs-0-252.png?12 Until then, of course, plenty of settled weather courtesy of three separate HP cells which might help the sunshine worshippers as they would "refresh" the conditions each time so as today's HP cell fades, tomorrow's is waiting; http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfs-0-48.png?12 Very pleasant conditions with a nice breeze for southern parts. As this cell fades, there look to be a couple of very calm days which could provide some fog issues before HP3 puts in an appearance next weekend http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfs-0-144.png?12 As HP3 moves across and away to the SE, HP4 tries to move in but doesn't make it owing to developing LP over the Azores and to the west of Iberia: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfs-0-204.png?12 The HP is held out to the west allowing LP to come south and it's game over for the settled conditions though the cold blast doesn't last too long. Right out at the furthest edge of FI there's a signal for a renewed burst of cold air for Canada so we could be looking at a renewed burst of Atlantic conditions to end the month: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030912/gfsnh-13-384.png?12 GEM at T+204 has similarities with GFS - the developing LP over the Azores is pivotal in holding the HP out to the west and allowing the colder unsettled conditions to encroach from the north; http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014030912/gem-0-204.png?12

By "false spring", I mean a period of settled, warm conditions in early-mid March (which we've often seen) which is then followed by a reversion to much colder and unsettled conditions in late March and early April which can bring wintry conditions with snow to higher ground and temperatures well below average. That in turn eases into April and proper spring-like conditions return. The term means conditions that make people think a) it's spring and b) there won't be any return of wintry conditions.

GFS 6Z Operational keeps things very anticyclonic for the next ten days: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030506/gfs-0-162.png?6 About as anticyclonic as it gets - again a weak continental drift to the SE but more difficult to know if this HP will be clear or cloudy at this range. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-162.png?6 Control very similar though goes much more unsettled than the OP into FI with a strong and potentially quite wintry set up for higher elevations. Most of the Perturbations show some form of anticyclonic weather but into FI most trend unsettled and some look potentially quite wet and indeed wintry to higher ground.

Morning all Yes, the "false spring" is just getting underway and the models show a period of a week to ten days of basically settled conditions with various permutations of how the HP will orient close to the British Isles so at T+144: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014030500/gem-0-144.png?00 GEM has the HP over the Low Countries and SE so a slight continental drift but perhaps fog more of an issue night and morning. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014030500/ECM1-144.GIF ECM very similar. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030500/gfs-0-144.png?0 GFS has the HP over southern Scotland so a more pronounced E'ly flow for southern England. ECM suggests a breakdown of sorts at T+240 but that may be overdoing it a tad. GFS shows in extreme FI what might happen but it's a traditional tale as HP retreats SW and pressure falls to the North and North-East.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014030312/gfs-0-144.png?12 Another run, another evolution. The LP which yesterday was heading to Iberia and this morning was sweeping across the British Isles is now stalling as a cut-off feature in the SW Approaches. Warm, yes, but you'd think showery from that and perhaps some fog to Channel coasts. Signal for the ridging Azores HP now looking very shaky but the Eurasian HP holding firm. Not quite sure where this is going though the return of the Atlantic would be the favourite.

Just had a hail shower here in lowland East London. A few impressive minutes of something white in the back garden....

Yes, plaudits to GEM who appear to have called this correctly so far. The developing LP shown on GFS and ECM for next Monday this morning was on yesterday's GEM output while GFS/ECM had it swinging away to Iberia with the block holding firm. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014030300/gem-0-234.png?00 To be fair, GEM does get there this morning via a slightly odd route as the Atlantic slows and the Azores HP ridges NE and the core of the Atlantic LP swinging NW back towards Canada.

Evening all Indeed... http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014030212/gem-0-192.png?12 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0 Quite some divergence there you'd have to say. GEM has played the unsettled card long and consistently over the past week while GFS has played the MLB card with increasing confidence so one of these two is going to be off the mark. GEM seems to take Atlantic disturbances and run them NE toward us keeping the HP to the south or east while GFS has the block strong enough to divert the LP well south or south-east. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014030212/ECM1-168.GIF?02-0 ECM tonight at T+168 illustrates this point with the LP turned SE toward Iberia rather than moving NE toward the UK. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?12 At the far edges of FI, the Control run from GFS points toward a scenario I've suggested over the past few days as we move into a "false spring" period of perhaps ten days of warm, sunny weather before the HP retrogresses (if only it were January !!) and the trough drops down into Scandinavia offering a much colder final third of March. This will only happen though if the GFS/ECM HP dominated scenario wins out later this coming week and that's not a wholly done deal yet. Before all of that, 48-60 hours of far from pleasant conditions to get through first.

Evening all Well, some interesting output from the models this evening. We still have three or four unsettled and quite wet days to get through before a rise in pressure from midweek and a potentially very pleasant spell next weekend. I've always said, however, the route to very cold starts from very mild and I suspect that as GFS suggests we could be lulled in by next weekend's faux spring lasting perhaps a week before the main pattern change kicks in. March is often a month of curiosities weather-wise and it wouldn't be the first time a warm first half is followed by a colder second half.

Afternoon all Have to say the GFS 12Z Operational output looks much less settled than this morning's which might tie in with Tamara's comments. This hardly screams settled to me; http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022612/gfs-0-192.png?12 Still a lot of very cold air over NE Canada even at this stage: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022612/gfsnh-13-348.png?12 GEM also stays very unsettled - the 528DAM line moves up and down the British Isles but never too far away. I really thought this would be the coldest week of the winter - it now seems we may be looking at mid-March at the earliest for any kind of break. Again, Tamara's thought on the denouement of this protracted spell are of interest and the possibility of a cooler and wetter summer than many of us on here would want isn't one we can affords to dismiss. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see April and May dominated by northern blocking but that's an observation for elsewhere.

Morning all A rare chance for me to comment on the model output this morning. GFS 06Z is rolling out as I type but the 00Z is about as uninspiring as it gets if you want weather outside the norm. ECM 00Z offers an anticyclonic solution at T+240 with an HP over Denmark and what would be, I ssuspect, pleasant enough daytime conditions though with colder nights. GFS notes the emergence of a Eurasian HP but doesn't bring it close enough to western Europe to influence the weather. GEM is on the other hand much more disturbed (as it seems to have been throughout the winter) with a return to Jan/early Feb type charts with powerful LP systems moving across the UK. UKMO isn't that interested in a pressure build from the Azores either in the short-term and directs the flow NW-SE which wouldn't be that mild either.

But we've been here before. For nearly a month, there have been "signs in FI" of pressure rising from the south and things drying up without it coming to pass in low-res. Last March, some will remember day after day charts being posted suggesting temperatures returning to normal but they never did so sometimes FI ensembles are not to be relied on either. The models are trying to find ways out of the pattern and that seems to involve stopping the train and seeing if pressure will rise from either north or south but neither scenario is convincing or credible at this time.

The brief northerly from earlier is still there at the fringes of low-res for the turn of the month: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022012/gfsnh-0-216.png?12?12 Once again, there are hints at the very fringes of FI of rising pressure from the south but we've been here before with this as much as with any hint of anything colder. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014022012/gemnh-0-210.png GEM similar with the month-end northerly. Once again, nothing stops the Atlantic though I note a very strong HP over the US East Coast at T+240 (GFS has the same and this squeezes a strong lobe of energy into the Atlantic out of E Canada).

Afternoon all My view (for what little it's worth) is the way out of the current pattern might occur quite rapidly during the first part of next month. Indeed, I think we could have what I call a "false spring" as pressure rises from the south and we import warmer and drier conditions. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a 20c in or just after mid-month. The problem is "false spring" conditions are the cruellest as they tend to last a good fortnight but then lead to much colder conditions as HP migrates from the south so my thoughts are for a much colder end to March with wintry conditions returning to higher elevations and some of the coldest conditions of 2014 so far in the south at the end of the month before unsettled conditions break through in mid-April.

Afternoon all It is often said "March comes in like a lion" http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014022000/gem-0-216.png Not quite so fierce http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022006/gfs-0-216.png?6?6 On the other hand, ROAR... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022000/ECM1-216.GIF Going forward, will this pattern go out "hot" or "cold" ?

Morning all http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014021706/gfs-0-84.png?6 It seems any respite from the rain and wind is going to be brief indeed - another nasty little storm for Thursday night/Friday morning and we wouldn't want to see any correction south. So how do we break from this pattern ? One possibility looks to be (as in deepest FI), the jet re-aligning north allowing pressure rises to the south. This was mooted for this week some time back but dropped so it remains to be seen.

Afternoon all GEM joins the St Valentine's Day Storm Party: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014020812/gem-0-150.png?12 More severe than GFS but both concerning while UKMO at T+144 plays a different though still very unsettled tune. GFS in low-res suggests the jet moving back north and drier conditions for the south but that's a long way off in model terms and may yet change. The secondary feature for Monday looks to be passing well to the south on GEM but moves back NE on GFS which is obviously providing some interest.

Evening all I thought the GEM 00Z Operational was one of the stormiest for the SE I had ever seen and the 12Z unsurprisingly backs away a little toward the GFS. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014020612/gem-0-204.png?12 Another unwelcome storm if this verifies. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfs-0-204.png?12 GFS Op very different at the same time. ECM is very difficult to follow with its 24 hour steps at times like this. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014020612/J180-21.GIF?06-12 JMA brings the feature through a day earlier but still very nasty potentially for the south. No sign whatsoever on tonight's output of anything settled in high-res but there are transient ridges offering 12-18 hours pause between the rain.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020512/gfs-0-72.png?12 Well, there we are. A similar track to today's storm but deeper at 950MB rather than today's 970MB. The storm for Thursday for the south is more about rain than wind but this beast for Saturday/Sunday is looking very bad. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020512/gfs-0-120.png?12 Nearly an E'ly for the extreme south - quite a cold looking chart and snow to high ground looks possible. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020512/gfs-1-252.png?12 Again, some quite cold air (it is mid February, not spring yet) some showers with snow to high ground very possible but a long way off. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020512/gfsnh-0-384.png?12 Tentative signs of weakening vortex and pressure rises to the North and North-East but a long long way off. Meanwhile, Saturday's storm on UKMO: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020512/UW72-21.GIF?05-17 And on GEM: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014020512/gem-0-72.png?12 GEM keeps the jet further south than GFS - I also note the surface Greenland HP is always modelled much more strongly on GEM.

Evening all As stormy and disturbed a series of 12Z Operational outputs as I've ever seen though the latest BBC weather forecast didn't really make for bad reading for some areas. The one thing striking me from the output is the gentle southward progression of the LP centres as the jet tacks gently southward. Not much in the way of mild, not much in the way of cold, plenty in the way of wet, plenty in the way of wind.

Morning all The weekend's storm looks to be settling just off the northern coast of Ireland with the strongest winds over Ireland, Wales and western England with frontal rain followed (I suspect and contrary to the morning forecast) by showers. The key difference this morning between GFS and ECM is, as has already been remarked elsewhere, the eastward migration of LP systems from the former and much less so from the latter. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014013000/ECM1-120.GIF http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014013000/gfs-0-120.png?0 GFS slightly more progressive in breaking through the block which sends a ridge back into Scandinavia as a final gesture of defiance (so it would seem). In distant FI, again as reported, the vortex appears to be pretty much done with HP building over Canada and Greenland - a different evolution from yesterday so a long way from anything approaching certainty but something to watch and those suggesting a pattern change in the second half of February certainly aren't out of the game yet.

I did say in my earlier contribution that I thought snow to higher elevations only was possible with the GEM. The later output actually shows colder uppers coming west into Scotland http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012912/gem-1-234.png?12 Possibilities, nothing more. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012912/ECM1-72.GIF?29-0 Saturday's storm on ECM - closer to UKMO than GFS. The question now is the track - will it cross Ulster or stay to the north of Ireland ?

I think GEM offers something along those lines this evening.

GEM looks very stormy indeed and certainly not mild. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014012912/gem-0-240.png?12 The Atlantic LPs are barrelling into central Europe at this point on a southerly jet. I think that chart could certainly offer snow to higher elevations. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012912/gfs-0-240.png?12 GFS, needless to say, nowhere near as interested or progressive. Unsettled of course but milder and drier for southern and south-eastern areas. Indeed, though to nowhere near the same extent as the 06Z, the FI output hints at warmer conditions with pressure rises to the south.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012912/gfs-0-72.png?12 Saturday's storm winding up nicely on the GFS 12Z Operational output. Very strong winds for Ireland and presumably Wales and SW England from that before we even get to the rain. High-res perhaps slightly drier than the 06Z down to fewer secondary features but that may not mean much. http://meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2014012912/UW72-21.GIF?29-17 UKMO at the same point - fractionally further north and fractionally deeper but close enough. The evolution on UKMO after that looks a little odd to my eye.