SomeLikeItHot
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I am really hoping we get a really solid negative number (ie <-2) as a nice clear signal like this should be a good test of the model and will build more confidence going forward (or much less should it bust).
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Thanks Styx and SLIH.
I thought it must have been something along those lines.
I have been there to the observatory and the highway going past does maintain a huge amount of traffic not always flowing !!
The comments I made earlier stlll apply though, it would lead to increased temperatures. But if BOM ignore the readings then no problem. Thanks
MIA
To be clear they Ignore it for climatatology measurements. Its still published on the BOM website as a station and is the station quoted in media stories about Sydney's temperature etc.
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The Sydney site was opened in 1917, keith.
I don't think the carriageway is especially new either, but that aerial photograph is incredibly misleading - it doesn't show the geography of the land in proper proportion. The highway, for example, is cut below the Observatory ground hill. The area has been heavily built since the late 19th century.
If you go to the ACORN reference file which knocker posted a link to, there is more information there which may allay your concerns.
Carriage way is the Sydney Harbour bridge exit has been there since the Harbour bridge opened in 1932, at least. Yes it is slightly wider now and carries more traffic, but has been pretty much the same there for a good 40 years.
The site is immediately adjacent to the Sydney observatory and around this location measurements have been taken since early colonial days. ie 1788. and later more rigorously at the observatory from the 1850s. The BOM doesn't include it in climate statistics as I understand.
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No mention of this ?? on sky
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/10/15/snow-flooding-and-lightning-wild-weather-sweeps-nsw
Umm yeah my post at the top of the thread did. Got buried under the climate conspiracy posts below however.
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Looking at the BOM rainfall totals looks like some suburbs have had around 50-60mm rain in the last hour and its still going pretty hard.
Edit: From the Sydney Morning Herald Live Page:
A lightning bolt appears to have struck the Sydney Tower, creating a shower of sparks and plunging the structure into darkness about 10pm.
Tom Lane, whose apartment looks onto the tower, said it was "like someone was welding".
"It was one of the biggest bolts of lightening I have ever seen in my life. It was absolutely massive. The whole tower went black," Mr Lane said.
around 100mmm in just over 2 hours around my house in Sydney (Canterbury nearest station about 2 miles away), and still raining by the looks of it. Imagine there will be some serious local flooding by the cooks river.
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Ah ok I see now, was 46 on the saturday of the fires. From memory thought the heatwave was that and the 2 days preceeding it, but I see you are right, cooled off to the low 30s for the week before.
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During the 2009 heatwave, which was one day shorter, there was a 62 per cent increase in the number of deaths expected.
Mr Davis said that showed Victorians had listened to warnings about the impacts of heat on the health of the vulnerable.
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Are they comparing with the heatwave during the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires? So do they include the 173 people killed in the fires in 2009 when they are saying it was higher then? I believe only 1 died in fires this year.
If so then its hardly about heat warnings.
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Can we not fix the spam filter here to allow Joe Basturdi to have his actual name mentioned?
For a long time I believed there really was a person called Joe Laminate floori. Took me a long time to find his name really was Joe Unmarriedparentsi.
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ok new to all this. But surely this is all very experimental. And we could still end up with a strong pv forming. With us seeing similar winter to last year. Or am I wide of the mark on this one.
It is still experimental, however the correlation is between October pattern and winter AO index. Its silent as to what happens in November as far as I know. If it is right then I expect we should see a weak PV or at least one that breaks up under s SSW at some point.
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Thanks
I had fun checking the results of the AO according to the OPI index and no real surprise, I board found only four errors on 38 years tested, it is the winter 1982/1983, 1983/1984, 1998/1999 and 1999/2000. So I board not taken as reference trismestre December / January / February, but only in December / January because these are the two months that the OPI index may be the most important. In the end, it's amazing to see how the numbers are very close between the AO and the IPO index, it works wonderfully
While I don't want to spoil anyone's fun nor would I suggest that the OPI should be ignored, you should keep in mind its been calibrated based on the historical set that it matches to 90% correlation. Given this a high correlation is to be expected. Thus far we have had one actual test of the model (last year) which it did well. It is highly likely that 90% correlation won't be maintained in the future given we are predicting 2-4 months ahead, but if it can get even a 70-80% correlation going forward it will be a massive step forward in long range forecasting. At the moment its a very interesting but nearly untested method. It should be watched and taken notice of but its going to be some years till you can reasonably say with confidence "it works wonderfully".
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Thank you for posting this Riccardo, and welcome to Netweather.
I have been following your work with the October Pattern Index since last year. There does seem an extremely high correlation between October's pressure pattern and the following winter's AO index - but it appears that last year may not have been as accurate as previous years. Is there a reason for this?
I am looking forward to seeing this year's index values tested and thank you for linking to your work.
c
With a 0.9 correlation, I think it was very likely that future estimates won't score as highly. That is not to say that there is nothing in it, just that 0.9 seems infeasibly high given what we know about chaotic systems. Data mining often turns out high correlations in past data that don't have the claimed predictive power in the future.
Again to be clear I am not trying to say it has no value, just that it was always very unlikely to have the extremely high predictive power claimed.
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9.0 Random guess, figure it will be as good as all my other attempts.
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Thanks for the weather sites NorthNSW. I am looking forward to some decent thunderstorms and hail. Not to mention a bit of heat and warmish ocean water.
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Hi,
Where is the best sight to view the various models for Australia/Sth Hemisphere. I'm moving back in December and only really got interested in weather in more detail while in the UK most of the sites I view the models on here only show Europe/ Nth Hemisphere.
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Great photos NorthNSW I remember a couple of storms like this in Sydney with parks looking as though they were snowed in. There is some videos of people snowboarding at the back of Bondi beach on such a fall somewhere on Youtube some years ago.
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Coldest month of winter for the second year running, yet 2+ degrees warmer than last year.
5.0
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An optimistic 2.6.
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So just looking at the london ensembles. Night of the 31 Jan- 1st of Feb we have approx 50mm of precipitation at temp of near zero. Obviously such things aren't reliable at that range. However am I wrong in thinking that the model really suggesting 50cm of snow for London?
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No signs is a bit strong. Sure its hardly guaranteed "no signs" seems a bit misleading.
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Been a while since I have done one of these but the ensembles now stretch to the end of month so worth having a look at.
6.2 to the 15th +2.7 anomaly (61-90) +1.8 anomaly (81-10)
Min today of 4.8 and max likely around 9.0 should stay on 6.2 tomorrow.
Met office forecasts for 5 days . Then GFS 0z Ensemble mean.
16th 6.2 (6.9)
17th 6.3 (6.8 )
18th 6.3 (6.5)
19th 6.3 (6.0)
20th 6.2 (5.6)
25th 5.6 +1.9 (61-90) +1.2 (81-10)
31st 5.3 +1.5 (61-90) 0.9 (81-10)
So at this stage looking at an above average month, a colder spell in the last 10 days could still it down to around the 81-10 average, would take the last 10 days average around zero to have a change of going below the 61-90 average after corrections.
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I'm hoping for the strong Asian event to return in the evening runs. The above is nothing but yet another delay.
I was also hoping for a pony but in the end I just got whatever Santa left under the tree.
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Warming over asia not as strong on the 6z but then there is this little feature that pops up over the UK in deepest FI to give another kick.
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J Maddens last twitter entry on 8th Jan
Here comes the widespread snow and cold - as forecast before all standard meteorologists
will be Interesting to see his next one !
Forecasting it before all standard meterologists is easy. Forecasting it correctly however is another thing.
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Your favourite beaches in the UK
in Weather Around The World
Posted
The Beaches on Anglesey where the best I have seen in the UK around Newborough and Abberffraw. Best time I have had on the beach since leaving Oz, although the water temperature left something to be desired. Cornwall beaches were also nice but far too many people for my liking which is why I preferred Anglesey.