SomeLikeItHot
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The GFS ensemble shows 3 days of 850's below zero after this we see a gradual recovery in temperatures to see out the month, today's met office update also talks of it turning "less cold" later next week
Tuesday to Thursday looks the coldest period at this stage though this could change over the next few days
But you've just shown 7 days with 850s below zero (8 for 95% of the UK).
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By midweek, it is likely that most parts will become colder than of late, with more widespread overnight frosts and temperatures a little below average by day.
While I appreciate that the Met don't use intemperate language of the James Maddens of this world, perhaps "temperatures a little below average by day" is a little bit of an understatement of mid next week. Given its likely to be 5 or more degrees below average surely this is more than "a little".
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7.7 to the 13th
Bang on the 1961 to 1990 average
-0.0 anomaly (61-90) -0.7 anomaly (81-10)Min today of 4.3 and max likely around 9.5 should see a fall to 7.6.Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give14th 7.6 (6.9)15th 7.5 (6.3)16th 7.6 (7.8 )17th 7.6 (7.9)18th 7.5 (7.0)19th 7.3 (2.0)20th 6.9 (1.0) -0.2 (61-90) -0.8 (81-10)21st 6.7 (1.3)22nd 6.5 (2.5)23rd 6.3 (3.3)24th 6.2 (3.0)25th 6.1 (2.5) -0.8 (61-90) -1.3 (81-10)…29th 5.7 -0.9 (61-90) -1.5 (81-10)
Ensembles Edged slightly cooler again, but you can't really see it as the short term (days 1-4) went slightly warmer. Still trending for something signficantly below average.
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The ECM ensemble mean still has high pressure to our west and north west , with the low to the SE. Obviously the ECM op is one option at that range, but a majority of ensemble members stil seem to be keeping in north of the UK. Personally I think you'be got to expect models at 168 + to give some variety of output run to run. The GFS ensemble mean at the same time (below) seems to agree. Generally this is a pretty good and strong signal at that range if you wat cold weather.
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Yep, good point - will check to see if that can be implemented
Thanks a lot!
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Out of the months I have been monitoring this, the Ensemble mean forecast I calculate has been within 0.5 of the final number I think on all but 1 occasion, at the time the ensembles stretch to the end of month (ie the 15th or 16th). The exception being September where it flipped from forecasting something like 12.9 on the 16th, which then rose to around 13.6-13.8 by the 19th (final offical number was 13.7).
Anyway a few days we should have a reasonable picture of where it will end up but its looking like the following members are best placed.
6.3 ... MARK N, MARCH BLIZZARD
6.2 ...
6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of all years 1659-2012 ----
6.0 ... SIMSHADY, SNOWM4N
5.9 ... SCEPTICAL INQUIRER, BOBD29 ... ... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ----
5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1701-1800 ----
5.7 ... SNOWSTORM1
5.6 ...
5.5 ... CONGLETON HEAT ... ... ---- mean of 1659-1700 ----
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Hi,
Would it be possible to get the ensemble graphs labelled with what run they come from. Generally its pretty obvious but sometimes around the switch from 1 run to another. (Like about 1pm) I'm not sure whether I am looking at the 0Z or 6Z. I note above the maps it says what run they are from if this could be displayed on the graphs it would be really helpful.
Thanks.
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7.8 to the 12 th -0.0 anomaly (61-90) -0.7 anomaly (81-10)
Min today of 1.5 and max likely around 9.5 should see a fall to 7.7.
Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give:
13th 7.7 (5.5)14th 7.7 (7.5)15th 7.6 (6.0)16th 7.5 (6.9)17th 7.5 (8.0)18th 7.5 (6.0)19th 7.2 (3.0)20th 6.9 (1.25) -0.2 (61-90) -0.9 (81-10)…25th 6.1 -0.8 (61-90) -1.3 (81-10)28th 5.8 -0.9 (61-90) -1.4 (81-10)
Another drop to colder ensembles today.
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ECM London ensembles are very cold to the 27th - mean stays below 5 degrees in london!
Note how far the GFS 0z was out of line with this. An outlier on its own ensembles largely also.
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Britain braced for 'Polar plunge' as cold winter freeze takes hold
.... Up to three inches have brought parts of Cumbria and County Durham to a standstill in recent days and left the region under a white blanket.
Is that even remotely true? I thought it was just a bit of hill snow on the higher peaks?
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I was referring to the 6z Manchester runs I posted not long before. Also everything that is bitter is still in FI, nothing has changed in that regard has it? 6 days to a week away is not reliable things can change.
Generally 6am is called morning but anyway.
Depends were FI is. Cold is about a day less FI than it was yesterday.
You are right that its not locked in stone, but it is not like its at 240hrs+ though either.
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sorry people cant post charts but by god do we want the gem to be right
Synoptically it looks great but it doesn't bring very cold T850s in. Only Scotland gets to below -4. I find it hard to believe given the charts to be honest but that's what it is saying.
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I was talking about other runs, never said "the 12z" did I?
"Everything that's bitterly cold or snowy seems to be getting pushed back into FI, that's the only trend I can see this evening."
Then you defined that -8 was bitter.
So what is "This evening" if not the 12Z runs?
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Some runs were going for -8 uppers for parts of the UK, for November that's darn cold.
the GFS 12Z still does what are you talking about?
-10 in Scotland, -8 north England and -6 midlands south.
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He's known as laminate floori around here. Since he's a swear word.
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Right. Yes I agree, seems unlikely we will hit that high a value again this autumn.
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7.7 to the 11 th -0.2 anomaly (61-90) -0.8 anomaly (81-10)Min today of 7.6 and max likely around 11.5 should see a rise to 7.9.Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that gives12th 7.9 (9.6)13th 7.7 (6.3)14th 7.7 (7.6)15th 7.6 (6.25)16th 7.6 (6.75)17th 7.5 (6.00)18th 7.3 (5.0)19th 7.2 (4.0)20th 6.9 (2.0) -0.2 (61-90) -0.9 (81-10)21st 6.7 (3.5)
...25th 6.3 -0.6 (61-90) -1.1 (81-10)
...27th 6.1 -0.7 (61-90) -1.2 (81-10)
Edit: Oops correction in the figure for the 27th.
Drifting colder from Yesterday as Ensembles firm on a dip around the 19th-25th.
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Now we reached the date of Maximum warmth for Autumn by tomorrow,
What does this mean? Date of maximum warmth for Autumn?
Doesn't feel like the Warmest day in Autum to me, but I suspect you mean something more subtle I'm not aware of.
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Ok that make sense as why there is almost always a downward correction if the stations are located in slightly cooler locations. So not actually methodological correction.
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Just looking at the GFS 6z Ensembles, and if I used the 6Z ensemble mean rather than the 0z ensemble mean, we would be at 6.1 by the 26th. So it wasn't just the op that turned colder.
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Yeah, I thought it might be more down to milder minima than warmer maxes, which seem to have been fairly similar across the country. It has generally been clearer at night from here northwards.
Oh, btw, I'm sure it's 7.7C to the 10th, not 9th!
Thanks for the correction.
Incidentally the anomaly on Max and min is the same at the moment after the last 3 colder minimums, but I believe a couple of days ago it was lower on the max than mins.
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What? It shows 526 dam and -6c upeprs. Hardly a ramp and tbh the first snow is a bit late this year
But it also 168 hours away so hardly set in stone. That said models are looking up for something interesting now early next week. Just keep your fingers crossed.
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I'm a bit surprised the CET is currently as warm as it is. Even places like Manchester and Sheffield have been noticeably cooler, never mind further north. Has the CET zone really been that bit milder? Or should we perhaps expect a hefty end of month downgrade?
Remmber 2/3rds of the CET weighting come from well south of that, and there has been a bit of a north south split in temps generally. Also the SW corner seems to have had fairly mild minima recently.
Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
He did post the 0z Charts but there is still some snow in the SW on the 6z